Position Primer: Power Forward
By Matt Buser, Yahoo! Sports Oct 8, 7:11 pm EDT
Position Primers: PG | SG | SF | PF | C
This is the fourth in a series of fantasy basketball position primers in preparation for the 2008-09 season. In the five primers, we will examine the statistical production fantasy owners should expect in general from players at each position, discuss a general draft strategy for each, and break down players by tiers.
Average Stats
Note: The stat averages listed below are the combined averages of the top 25 players at the position in season-ending “Rank” from each of the past three seasons.
| POS | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | 3PTM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | Rank |
| PF | .490 | 980 | .759 | 343 | 0.62 | 16.8 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.97 | 1.1 | 1.92 | 44 |
Not a lot of mystery here – PF trailed only C in big-man stats (FG%, REB, and BLK) and fared poorly in most other areas outside of turnovers, in which PF had the lowest average.
Draft Strategy
Much of it has to do with multi-positional players, but PF is a very top-heavy position – its 11 players with a current ADP under 25.0 leads all positions. You are looking at five certain first-rounders and then a slew of players that will be drafted in rounds two through five – you don’t want to get caught looking or you will be scrambling to fill in your depth chart with lower-tier players and their lower-tier expectations. That’s not to say that there aren’t bargains to be had or players to watch out for in the later rounds, but the smart money is on getting your share of the position’s quality at or near the top of the list.
The rankings (below) are based on the nine Yahoo! default categories (FG%, FT%, 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO), with the general assumption that you are trying to win and/or be competitive in each of the nine categories.
| TIER 1 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Amare Stoudemire | 2 | Two-plus blocks put him in rare territory; impact is joined to Nash at the hip | |
| Elton Brand | 417 | Fully healthy, primed to make serious noise in the East; Rank of 6 in 06-07 | |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 5 | roto | You won’t find a better source of volume offense, but D stats keep sliding |
| Shawn Marion | 14 | Won’t be back to Phoenix prime, but expect top 10 line on this edition of Heat | |
| Kevin Garnett | 9 | Everyone sacrificed numbers on Celts, including KG, but he’s still money | |
| TIER 2 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Chris Bosh | 31 | Two things we know: (1) he’s awesome and (2) he’s going to miss games | |
| Rashard Lewis | 13 | roto | Elite combination of offense and efficiency has made him a roto force |
| Pau Gasol | 41 | Concerns about GP total, but none about Gasol/Bynum pairing here | |
| Carlos Boozer | 15 | 20/10 was a given, but spike in D stats (STL, BLK) buoyed his 07-08 rank | |
| Al Jefferson | 21 | Hard to not like him that much more now that he’s got some more help | |
| Josh Smith | 19 | h2h | Line is among game’s most unique; efficiency challenges play better in h2h |
| Tim Duncan | 25 | h2h | Boost in FT% accounted for the spike in rank; rest of line largely unchanged |
| David West | 28 | Coming off big-time boost in BLK, incremental improvements elsewhere | |
| Rudy Gay | 24 | Gets some help in Mayo, but still something of an island of talent on Grizz | |
| Antawn Jamison | 23 | roto | Crazy-good combination of volume stats (PTS, REB, 3PTM) and low TO |
| TIER 3 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Ron Artest | 69 | Per-game stats are fantastic; value pick here if he can play 75ish games | |
| Rasheed Wallace | 32 | roto | Will give way to team’s youngsters a bit, but still solid roto option |
| Gerald Wallace | 72 | Hard to find balance between stat potential and health concerns; X-factor | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 58 | Wowing in early camp; Oden could help offense but poach defensive stats | |
| Mehmet Okur | 67 | Hard to find balance between lackluster first half and massive second half | |
| Lamar Odom | 40 | Could emerge as more of a ball-handler in offense; will put up numbers | |
| Jermaine O’Neal | 221 | Fit, healthy and out to prove the nay-sayers wrong; could be bargain pick | |
| Emeka Okafor | 87 | h2h | Strengths (FG%, REB, BLK) and weaknesses (FT%, AST:TO) are clear-cut |
| David Lee | 61 | Finally going to get the shot we’ve all been hoping for; double-double lock | |
| TIER 4 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Michael Beasley | - | Multi-cat game projects to be a great fit alongside Wade and Marion | |
| Troy Murphy | 81 | Will play his natural position (PF) in an offense he’s comfortable in | |
| Al Horford | 83 | Should once again be very stable, if unspectacular, fantasy contributor | |
| Kenyon Martin | 90 | This season, should be as close to all the way back as we’ll ever see him | |
| Kevin Love | - | Hoops IQ/ability will make up for many presumed physical shortcomings | |
| Andrei Kirilenko | 50 | Peak three-year averages (16/8, 1.7 STL, 3 BLK) now sound like a fairy tale | |
| Zach Randolph | 105 | h2h | Still in the team’s plans and contributions will remain cat-specific (PTS, REB) |
| Al Harrington | 66 | Team needs him to step up big-time; he should at least be back over 30 mpg | |
| Charlie Villanueva | 160 | Starting spot is his to lose; as much upside as you’ll find at this point | |
| TIER 5 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Ryan Gomes | 88 | roto | Low-risk, reasonable reward pick since he’s looking at around 30 mpg again |
| Nene Hilario | 377 | Team has paved the way for his breakout season, but health will dictate | |
| Joakim Noah | 156 | One of my favorite bargain FC; will help in more categories than he hurts | |
| Thaddeus Young | 134 | Hard to get too excited due to spot in pecking order, but can do some things | |
| Marvin Williams | 86 | Will his game ever expand to more than a few points and some boards? | |
| Nick Collison | 92 | Solid option as a late-round FC; low-risk, medium reward contributions | |
| Drew Gooden | 140 | Some points, boards when he sees PT, but team roles are work in progress | |
| Luis Scola | 139 | One of a few picks at this point that bring PTS, REB and not much else | |
| TIER 6 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Al Thornton | 180 | Showed some promise as a rookie, but also issues in all things efficiency | |
| Paul Millsap | 107 | Per-48 stats have him among ‘most likely to succeed’ in starting role | |
| Amir Johnson | 204 | Serious BLK sleeper could be looking at a starting gig; boom/bust pick | |
| Travis Outlaw | 125 | Ever-intriguing potential but once again coming off bench for deep squad | |
| Boris Diaw | 128 | Love his multi-cat abilities, but only an injury opens up significant PT | |
| Andres Nocioni | 121 | Nothing has changed about his role or in terms of expected production | |
| Andrea Bargnani | 185 | Strange as it may sound, should be better in fantasy as team’s FC reserve | |
| Yi Jianlian | 192 | Likely the default starter at PF but it’s unwise to expect anything substantial | |
| Hakim Warrick | 181 | h2h | Look elsewhere for anything outside of PTS, FG%, and a few boards |
| TIER 7 | 07-08 | Bias | Notes |
| Spencer Hawes | 257 | Will start for the season’s first five games; temper expectations otherwise | |
| Jason Maxiell | 173 | Fall-back option if Amir is a bust, but only so much PT to go around | |
| Chris Wilcox | 176 | Best-case is that he gets back to 14/8, but no supporting stats either way | |
| Ronny Turiaf | 135 | Hustle specialist should carve out steady role in wide-open GSW system | |
| Udonis Haslem | 170 | Can’t see how he doesn’t lose enough PT to marginalize his fantasy impact | |
| Antonio McDyess | 103 | Only thing that is clear is that the team wants him coming off the bench | |
| Tyrus Thomas | 178 | Pros remain vague (upside) while cons are tangible (skills, consistency) | |
| Ben Wallace | 142 | h2h | Nearing the end of the line, but still producing defensive numbers |
| Anderson Varejao | 232 | Will once again see steady playing time behind a pair of aging bigs | |
| Josh Boone | 223 | Upside from here depending on how the NJ depth chart shakes out |
07-08: season-ending Yahoo! rank (default 9-cat cumulative value)
BIAS: Notes when a player’s 9-cat line is more favorable in roto or h2h leagues; if blank, the player’s overall impact is relatively even in both
