Big Pictures: Net gains

I’m going to chime in on the “LeBron James is a potential free agent in 2010” now – admittedly, I’m late to the party – because I feel the grossly under-scrutinized aspect of the “LBJ to NYC” story is that the Knicks have already made trades that have nothing to do with their current product and everything to do with when as many of their players as possible come off the books in two seasons.

While there will be some entertainment value in watching teams routinely score 120 points when they face the Knicks through at least 2010, I’m not sure I’m ready to make peace with what figures to be just the first of a number of teams who aren’t exactly concerned with competing while positioning themselves for the chance to sign one of a handful of elite free agents after the end of next season.

Adrian Wojnarowski touched on what’s sure to be the ugly side of all this premature pomp and circumstance here: “The NBA’s president, Joel Litvin, has a monumental task of keeping order over the next 19 months because the process will ultimately turn nasty and accusatory among front offices. With superstar package deals inevitably being orchestrated well before July 1, 2010, this free-agent courtship is ripe for rules violations.” What seems to be as difficult of as task to me is keeping the integrity of the league in order as more teams line up to tank the next two seasons, with eyes only on 2010.

Stat Tracking

• Devin Harris’ scoring average is up (24.8) and has been way up over the past month (26.8). A big part of the reason for his prolific numbers is because of free throws – he’s second in the league in attempts per game (11.2) and very comfortably atop the league at 9.2 makes per game (those numbers rise to 12 attempts and 9.9 makes over the past month). On the season, his 129 free makes represent 37 percent of his total points, a mark that is second-highest among players with at least 150 points on the season.

The top 10: Corey Maggette (.376, 104/276), Harris (.372, 129/347), Andrei Kirilenko (.363, 73/201), Paul Pierce (130/371), Kevin Love (.335, 52/155), Gerald Wallace (.332, 99/298), Dwight Howard (.328, 134/408), Russell Westbrook (.312, 72/231), Allen Iverson (.311, 89/286), and Yao Ming (.309, 101.327).

The bottom 10: Daequan Cook (.053, 9/169), Jason Kidd (.055, 9/163), Ryan Gomes (.064, 12/187), Maurice Evans (0.67, 11/165), Raja Bell (.073, 14/193), Boris Diaw (.077, 12/156), Michael Finley (.083, 14/170), Cuttino Mobley (.086, 13/151), Mike Bibby (.087, 24/276), and Thaddeous Young (.090, 24/268).

• Sergio Rodriguez has exemplified unselfish play for the Blazers – in 20 games on the season, he’s logged 84 assists but attempted only 70 shots himself. His ratio of 1.20:1 is the highest in the league among all players who have played as many as 50 minutes on the season (346 players).

The top 10 among players with a bit of a larger role (minimum 350 total minutes): Jason Kidd (1.04, 145:139), Rajon Rondo (1.01, 154:152), Jose Calderon (1.00, 142:142), Chris Duhon (0.96, 148:154), Anthony Carter (0.89, 91:102), Chris Paul (0.86, 189:219), Steve Nash (0.78, 129:166), Earl Watson (0.77, 110:142), Kyle Lowry (0.69, 61:88), and Mario Chalmers (0.64, 86:135).

Prime Pickups:
Top players available in 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues

Steve Blake (Por – PG) 47 percent owned
Blake is officially putting together nice fantasy numbers. While playing 32 minutes per game over the past eight games, he’s averaged 14.5 points on 45 percent shooting, 2.6 threes, 4.9 assists, and 1.3 steals, also making 15 of his 16 free throws. It’s worth noting that the Blazers have won seven of the eight games – his role is assured and those numbers warrant a roster spot in almost any format. Bias: none Schedule: 3,2,4

Eric Gordon (LAC – SG) 36 percent owned
Gordon has been playing through a hamstring injury, and although it’s showing in the box score (9.3 points on 41 percent shooting over the past three games) it hasn’t completely wrecked his fantasy impact (1.7 threes, 1.3 steals, 1 block in the same stretch). The injury has taken some of the shine off of the 49 points he scored in his first two games as a starter, but what it hasn’t changed is that he’s the man at SG and that’s unlikely to change when Ricky Davis is able to return from his knee injury. Moving forward (once his hammy gets well), it’s fair to expect 14 points, 2 threes, and 1.5 steals in around 30 minutes from Gordon. Bias: none Schedule: 3,4,2

Mario Chalmers (Mia – PG) 45 percent owned
Chalmers was a hot commodity after recording nine steals in the fourth game of the season (Nov. 5) but was much less so in the weeks following, as his overall line left much to be desired. Things have improved greatly for him over the past six games, particularly on the offensive end – he’s averaged 12.8 points on 47 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 steals in 32 minutes per game. Chris Quinn is less of threat to his playing time while those threes are falling, and it’s not something that should really be looked at as an anomaly, given that his jumpshot was among his strongest traits coming out of college. He’s a rookie, so ups and downs are par for the course, but right now is a good time to be on board with Chalmers. Bias: none Schedule: 3,3,3

Ryan Gomes (Min – SF, PF) 49 percent owned
Gomes got a mention here last week, and the only thing that’s changed in the interim is that Corey Brewer was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Gomes should see at least some of his trickle-down minutes (21 per game), meaning he’s all but locked in to starter’s playing time the rest of the way. His numbers over the past six games are a pretty good representation of what to expect – 14.2 points on 50 percent shooting, 2 threes, 4.5 boards, occassional steals/blocks, and low turnovers. Bias: roto Schedule: 4,3,3

Tim Thomas (NY – SF, PF) 17 percent owned
Thomas has had a few decent games and one stinker since joining the Knicks (game log), but how things have shaken out is roughly what you can expect in terms of a best-case for Thomas. In five games, he’s averaged 12 points on 41 percent shooting, 2 threes, 5 boards, and 1 steal in 27 minutes. We’ve got a well-established pattern of production from Thomas, and expecting anything other than some low-efficiency offense, threes and a few boards is unwise. Still, those threes and the fact that he’s in the D’Antoni system at least make him relevant when you get a bit deeper than standard leagues. Bias: h2h Schedule: 3,4,2

Sean May (Cha – PF) 2 percent owned
May registered a double-double on Wednesday (10 points, 11 boards in 27 minutes) and it’s at least notable any time he does that. It’s notable because he’s a talented player (career per-30 minute averages of 14 points and 8.1 boards) and his scope of opportunity is no smaller than it’s ever been for the Bobcats. But this is Sean May we’re talking about here, so having any expectations other than none could be setting yourself up for disappointment. All you can do is roster him and hope this is the year that his body holds up. Bias: none Schedule: 4,4,3

Luther Head (Hou – PG, SG) 5 percent owned
Head’s potential to help fantasy teams spiked on Saturday when he scored 21 points in 41 minutes, starting in place of the injured Tracy McGrady. It took a hit when he scored just three points on Sunday and now is up in the air, thanks to the Rockets’ unconventional starting five on Wednesday. If the Rockets stay with their “big” lineup, then obviously Head only has so much upside while T-Mac rests his knee. With that said, if he can see 30 minutes one way or another, he’s got a chance to post a solid line – he’s averaged 13.3 points, 1.9 threes, 3.7 boards, 3.4 assists, and 1.4 steals in 56 career starts. Bias: none Schedule: 4,3,4

Bias: Notes when a player’s 9-cat line is more favorable in roto or h2h leagues; if ‘none’, the player’s overall impact is relatively even in both Schedule: The number of games the players’ team has scheduled for the upcoming three weeks

Eddy Curry Line Update
The Eddy Curry Line was originally established to put a spotlight on how truly anemic Curry’s overall fantasy line is. It can be used to help establish which players are among the best and worst, in terms of efficiency of production, for fantasy basketball. The standard: a player must average more turnovers than assists, steals, and blocks combined - in order to qualify, a player must have appeared in at least half of his team’s games and averaged at least 25 minutes of playing time.

GP = games played
MPG = minutes played per game
POS = positive stats accumulated to-date (assists + steals + blocks)
NEG = turnovers to-date
RATIO = amount of positive stats per turnover