Big Picture: Transition

If you at least semi-frequented this column last year, then you will notice things look a bit different in this first installment for the 2008-09 season. Gone are injury updates – you’ll find all the pertinent injury info you need in the weekly NBA Skinny, our semi-regular hoops blog posts, and a weekly injury wrap that we’ll be receiving from our friends at RotoExperts.com. What the Big Picture is going to concentrate on this season is the interesting and impactful numbers over the course of the season (Stat Tracking) and get you ready for the coming week(s) by calling out the best players available in the majority of Yahoo! leagues (Prime Pickups). Oh yeah, and, as always, we’ll keep a running tab on the Curry Line. I know you are as happy as I am that we’re back for another season – good luck and thanks for checking out the Big Picture.

Stat Tracking

• Stephen Jackson has attempted 49 threes in five games, an average of 9.8 per game. He’s yet to hoist fewer than eight attempts in a game and shows few signs of slowing down, particularly if Al Harrington (5.6 3PTA per game thus far) is replaced in the rotation by Brandan Wright (0 3PTA in 432 career minutes). The league record for 3-point attempts in a season is 678, set by George McCloud in 1995-96 – he played 79 games, averaging 8.6 attempts per game.

• For as much as S-Jax is jacking up threes, he’s actually fourth among players in terms of attempts per 48 minutes (minimum 20 minutes played per game). The top 10: Daequan Cook (12.9), Quentin Richardson (12.0), Baron Davis (11.5), Jackson (10.6), Rashard Lewis (10.4), Matt Barnes (10.1), James Posey (9.4), Bobby Simmons (9.2), Jamal Crawford (9.2) and Nate Robinson (9.0).

• LeBron James been to the line 31 times in the past two games, making 28 of his attempts (90%). I wanted to see if, in James’ case, more attempts on a per-game basis usually led to more makes on a percentage basis, but that does not appear to be the case. In 49 career games (including playoffs) where LBJ has attempted at least 15 free throws, he’s made 75 percent of 852 attempts – in all other games (393) he’s made 73 percent of 3,066 attempts. Conclusion: James isn’t much of a free throw shooter, and the best we can hope for at this point is sporadic outbursts like the past few games.

• Perhaps foul trouble will determine whether or not Brook Lopez is in the discussion for fantasy ROY (and real life for that matter, as well). He’s recorded at least six boards, one steal and two blocks in each of his first three games, but has also logged 13 fouls in 63 minutes played (9.9 per 48 minutes).

• Nick Young should be on your fantasy radar if you are lacking scoring punch. He’s already comfortably the Wizards’ third-leading scorer (15.7), despite just under 24 minutes per game – that’s 32.2 points per 48 minutes, which would place him between Dirk Nowitzki (32.6) and Amare Stoudemire (31.8) at this point. If Antonio Daniels continues to contribute just slightly more than nothing (6.0 points, 4.3 assists in 26 minutes), then you can bet Young’s role will only increase. (H2H owners should note that Washington has only two games in Week 3).

• Need some blocks? Be sure to keep these widely-available players from among the current per-48 leaders in mind: Ronny Turiaf (6.4), Chris Andersen (6.1), Brook Lopez (4.6), Andrea Bargnani (4.4), Josh Boone (3.5) and Kendrick Perkins (3.5).

Prime Pickups: Top players available in 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues

Marquis Daniels (Ind – SG, SF) 12% owned
Daniels has stepped right in for the injured Mike Dunleavy and, after three games, is second on the team in minutes (37), boards (7.0) and steals (1.3), and third in scoring (14.7) and threes (0.7). Daniels has historically been successful as a starter, and there aren’t many reasons to expect that to change in the fantasy-friendly Indiana system. With Dunleavy’s return date still a complete unknown, Daniels is recommended across the board. Bias: none Schedule: 4,3,4

Roger Mason (SA – PG, SG) 26% owned
Mason’s line from the Spurs’ double-OT win over the Timberwolves on Wednesday (44 minutes, 26 points, 2 threes) should put fantasy owners on notice that he’s the clear third-scoring option for this team while Manu Ginobili is sidelined. And Mason has the skill-set to play himself into a steady role on this team (think Brent Barry, but with upside) even when Manu is back in the mix. Most of his contributions will come via efficient offense, with some assists and boards as bonus. Bias: roto Schedule: 4,3,4

Luke Ridnour (Mil – PG) 25% owned
Ridnour returned from a two-game absence in spectacular fashion on Wednesday: 20 points, 2 threes, 7 boards, 11 assists and two steals. Usually his numbers come in more of an incremental fashion, so the output was a surprise and a good sign for fantasy purposes. He’s got Ramon Sessions nipping at his heels, but Scott Skiles has made his affinity for Ridnour clear, so the minutes will be there as long as he’s playing well. H2H owners take note: the Bucks are one of only six teams with four games in each of the next three weeks. Bias: roto Schedule: 4,4,4

Delonte West (Cle – PG, SG) 43% owned
West appears to be settling in as the starting SG for the Cavs – over the past three games he’s averaged 14 points on 61 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.7 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals in 33 minutes per game. If the threes continue to fall at a high rate – not out of the question with LeBron James, Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskas commanding so much attention – then we could be looking at another top-50 season that’s heavy in efficiency. Bias: roto Schedule: 3,3,4

Kelenna Azubuike (GS – SG, SF) 30% owned
I know I’m asking for trouble with the following statement, but it seems pretty clear that Azubuike is going to average out to 30-plus minutes from Don Nelson for the foreseeable future. Nelson only has faith in so many players on his roster, and Azubuike appears to be one of them. (You’ll notice that “seems” and “appears” is as strongly as I can speak about anything when dealing with Nelson’s whims.) What to expect in terms of numbers: pretty much what we’ve seen so far, as in a little bit of everything but not a lot in any single category. Bias: none Schedule: 3,3,4

Rodney Stuckey (Det – PG, SG) 45% owned
The Chauncey Billups/Allen Iverson trade has clearly signaled that the Pistons are comfortable handing the keys to the offense to Stuckey eventually, but Iverson and his expiring contract were also brought in for an infusion of adrenaline to help the team win now. Stuckey figures to come off the bench behind AI and Richard Hamilton once Iverson gets settled in, so you have to cap his upside based on around 25 minutes per game. However, he still makes for an intriguing roster add while the Pistons sort things out. Bias: none Schedule: 4,3,3

Brandan Wright (GS – SF, PF) 5% owned
Wright’s recommendation is equal parts reaction and speculation. In 32 minutes versus the Nuggets on Wednesday, Wright went for 18 points, 13 boards and three blocks, showing great athleticism and energy. His first career double-double was apparently what Don Nelson needed to see to commit to Wright and finally commit to finding a way to part with Al Harrington. “Brandan is ready,” Nelson said after the game. “So I’m going to play him.” Wright’s got things working against him in that he’s still a raw talent and he plays for Nelson, but Wright could emerge as a decent (if inconsistent) source of field goal percentage, boards and blocks. Bias: none Schedule: 3,3,4

Quentin Richardson (NY – SG, SF) 46% owned
We’ve seen the best and worst of Q-Rich in just the past two games. He scored 28, hit five threes, and grabbed nine boards on Sunday, and then scored three points on 1-of-9 shooting and had six turnovers on Wednesday. Neither of the performances should have come as a shock – questionable health and wildly inconsistent production are two of his calling cards. That’s not to say that Richardson is useless in fantasy, it’s just that his usefulness shouldn’t be overstated. A common refrain is that he had “his best season” under Mike D’Antoni in Phoenix in 2004-05 – it’s due to a career-high 2.9 threes per game, but the fact that he also shot just 39 percent from the field is often glossed over. Bias: h2h Schedule: 4,3,3

Joel Przybilla (Por – C) 9% owned
Obviously, the Vanilla Gorilla is only a viable option for as long as Greg Oden is sidelined. Given the latest update, it’s looking like fantasy owners may find use for Przybilla’s services for the next two weeks (7 to 9 games). If you need boards, blocks and little else, Przybilla is a solid option – and it’s worth noting that the Blazers play four games in each of the next four weeks. Bias: none Schedule: 4,4,4

Jason Thompson (Sac – PF, C) 46% owned
What did Thompson show us while Brad Miller served his five-game suspension? That he can play. In 24 minutes per game, Thompson averaged 13.6 points on 59 percent shooting, 6.8 boards, 0.6 steals and 0.6 blocks. Now that Miller is coming back (Friday), things are going to get interesting. If the 22-year-old Thompson can slip ahead of the 33-year-old Mikki Moore in the big-man rotation, then he’ll at least hold his present value. But if Reggie Theus defers to his veterans (Miller and Moore) instead of his youngbloods (Spencer Hawes and Thompson), then Thompson is the one that will be left scrounging for minutes. Bias: none Schedule: 4,4,4

Bias: Notes when a player’s 9-cat line is more favorable in roto or h2h leagues; if ‘none,’ the player’s overall impact is relatively even in both
Schedule: The number of games the players’ team has scheduled for the upcoming three weeks

Eddy Curry Line Update: The Eddy Curry Line was originally established to put a spotlight on how truly anemic Curry’s overall fantasy line is. It can be used to help establish which players are among the best and worst, in terms of efficiency of production, for fantasy basketball. The standard: a player must average more turnovers than assists, steals and blocks combined. In order to qualify, a player must have appeared in at least half of his team’s games and averaged at least 25 minutes of playing time.

GP = games played
MPG = minutes played per game
POS = positive stats accumulated to-date (assists + steals + blocks)
NEG = turnovers to-date
RATIO = amount of positive stats per turnover
DIFF = difference in ratio since previous update