Big Picture: On the mend

It’s time to get an update on the major injuries around the NBA with camps about to open – players are reporting Monday as activities will begin in full Tuesday. We’re already going to be without Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis and Manu Ginobili for a number of months. Let’s break down their timelines with the most recent information available and call out the players who deserve the most scrutiny in camp as they attempt to recover from various afflictions.

Rafer Alston (Hou – PG)
Alston had surgery in early May after suffering an ankle injury in the Rockets’ playoff series versus the Jazz. He returned to practice in early September and has been in recent team scrimmages and is not expected to be limited for the start of the season.

Gilbert Arenas (Was – PG)
The immediate impact of Arenas’ most recent knee surgery was dealt with here. Not much has changed since then, and the team will take it slow with his rehab this time around, as they are more interested in getting long-term value on their $111 million investment than rushing him back in the current campaign. I’m putting a floor estimate at 20 games missed this season, but 30 is a safer number to go by, and that isn’t even accounting for playing a certain amount at much less than 100 percent.

Shane Battier (Hou – SF)
Battier should fall a bit (more) on draft sheets after it was revealed last week that he’ll miss most of the preseason dealing with inflammation in his surgically repaired left ankle. He’s expected to be back for the final days of camp, but his fantasy impact had already taken a hit with the arrival of Ron Artest.

Andrew Bogut (Mil – C)
Bogut suffered an ankle injury in Australia’s loss to the Team USA in Beijing that was originally feared to be fairly significant. An MRI eventually confirmed that it was just a sprain. Bogut should be good to go for camp. He said last Monday that he had been going full-speed for two weeks and had no problems. He remains one of the better C2 options in standard leagues.

Andrew Bynum (LAL – C)
Bynum’s 07-08 season came to an end in mid-January when he suffered a significant knee injury. His rehab went well enough that there was talk of a return during the playoffs, but he eventually underwent arthroscopic surgery in mid-May to clean up debris. His offseason has gone very well, allowing him to declare himself 100 percent earlier this month, and even went so far as to say that his strength and fitness levels are better than they were at this point last season. The 20-year-old looks to be a safe choice at the tail end of the top 10 players at his position.

Jose Calderon (Tor – PG)
Calderon was limited in the Olympics by a groin strain that forced him to miss the gold-medal game, but it’s not expected to be an issue for camp. Late last week, he called himself all of the following: normal, 100 percent, without pain and perfect for camp.

Vince Carter (NJ – SG, SF)
Carter played with pain in latter stages of the 07-08 season and underwent surgery to remove bone spurs from his right ankle in mid-April. There was little news over the offseason regarding his recovery and, in this case, no news (as in no setbacks) is good news. VC told the Daily News last month that he was “fine” and “ready to go.”

Tyson Chandler (NO – C)
Chandler’s big toe is still not 100 percent. It’s something that he’s been dealing with since the final regular season game last season. At this point he has minor soreness, but it’s not expected to limit him much and this is as much of a precaution as anything. Keep an eye out for updates but don’t let it affect his draft status at this point.

Monta Ellis (GS – PG, SG)
Ellis’ unfortunate moped accident has thrown the Warriors’ game plan for a loop and cast a dark cloud over his individual prospects. His injuries included a torn deltoid ligament in his left ankle, a severe high ankle sprain and damage to other ligaments above his ankle joint. His recovery following his Aug. 27 surgery includes six weeks of immobilization and six weeks of rehab, and he’ll be evaluated at that point to gauge a possible return to practice. That means, at minimum and assuming no setbacks, Ellis won’t start to practice until the beginning of December. It’s hard to assume a best-case scenario, given the severity of things – Robert Verdette, a doctor with the San Jose Medical Group summed things up like this: “It’s awful. I wouldn’t wish that injury on my worst enemy.” Ellis’ game is so dependent on his quickness and athleticism that I’m ready to write off the 08-09 season as a loss. Even if he’s “back” sometime around the first of the year, he won’t be at 100 percent and he won’t pick up where he left off in the up-tempo Golden State offense. Marcus Williams and C.J. Watson are currently in the mix for the starting spot, with Williams having the edge in PG skills but Watson is familiar with the system. I expect Williams to emerge as the starter and he’s a very nice late-round pick for fantasy owners.

Manu Ginobili (SA – SG)
Ginobili had surgery on his left ankle and heel on Sept. 3 to deal with injuries he suffered in Olympic competition, and a timeframe for his return was placed at between two and three months. The Spurs play 16 games before Dec. 1 and 31 games before Jan. 1, so he’s a good bet to miss at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 games and play a number of others at less than full strength. That should drop him to the later rounds of fantasy drafts, where he’s an interesting risk/reward pick, particularly until more definitive updates start coming out of Spurs’ camp. Michael Finley and Roger Mason should see the balance of the playing time while Ginobili recovers.

Al Jefferson (Min – PF, C)
Jefferson suffered a mild right MCL sprain on Sept. 18, an injury that was expected to need two to three weeks of recovery. It’s not supposed to be something that lingers into the season, so don’t drop him on your draft charts, but keep an eye for updates on his progress.

Tracy McGrady (Hou – SG, SF)
T-Mac underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder and left knee in early May, a procedure that dealt with a slightly torn labrum in the shoulder and loose particles in both areas. He’s well past the expectedthree-month recovery period, but Rockets GM Daryl Morey said last week that he’s had some “lingering pain” in “some of the places” where he had surgery. Morey also added that it’s more of an annoyance than anything and that he’d play all season with it if he had to. Of course, his numbers would undoubtedly suffer in the same way they did last season (season rank of 127) if that were the case. It figures to be, since this is T-Mac we’re talking about, and fantasy owners should draft accordingly.

Yao Ming (Hou – C)
Yao reported no problems with his surgically-repaired foot during his Olympic experience, although he did deal withblisters and fatigue. Everyone associated with the Rockets is feeling positive about where Yao is at, as in he’s had no setbacks. While that’s “good” news, you still can’t consider it anything but another calculated risk when drafting Yao this season, something that was dealt with in the offseason mock.

Greg Oden (Por – C)
All reports have been positive regarding Oden’s knee as he’s been participating in drills in voluntary workouts leading up to camp, reporting no pain or soreness. His weight is reportedly down from 300 to 285. His conditioning is another story, as he said during Blazers media day that he’s “definitely not in NBA shape yet.” Oden is a fantasy wildcard this season. His knee appears to be sound and he’s an exceptionally talented 7-footer, but we’ve yet to see if his knee can take a daily pounding and we’ve yet to see him play a day in the pros, period. Consider him a solid C2 at this point and keep an eye out for early camp reports as he gears up for the start of the regular season.

Brandon Roy (Por – PG, SG)
Roy underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on Aug. 14 to repair a torn meniscus. Reports are that he looked good in workouts about a month after the procedure (just over two weeks ago), and this isn’t expected to interfere with the regular season in any way.

Amare Stoudemire (Pho – PF, C)
Amare suffered a Grade II sprain of his left ankle in July and aggravated the injury a few weeks ago, so he’ll be limited in camp with the aim being to simply make sure he’s 100 percent at the start of the regular season. He’s still the top-ranked big man in fantasy, assuming he doesn’t suffer any setbacks in camp.

Earl Watson (OKC – PG)
A fractured thumb was originally expected to keep Watson out for much of camp, but he’s healed more quickly than expected and has been cleared to resume full-court activities. Watson remains an underrated late-round pick. While he’ll concede some time to Russell Westbrook, his post-break averages last season included 14.6 points on 49 percent shooting and 7.1 assists in 32 minutes per game.