Position Primer: Small Forward
There’s plenty to like at the small forward position, starting right at the top with the 1-2 of LeBron James and Kevin Durant. That pairing will give you a pretty good idea of what to expect as you scan through this list - a melting pot of shooting guard and power forward eligible players who offer diverse skill sets and a wide range of statistical contributions. You’ll find your scorers (Granger, Gay, Johnson, DeRozan), your rebounders (Smith, Wallace, Odom), your distributors (Iguodala, Diaw, Turkoglu), and a little bit of everything in between.
By way of Basketball Monster, here’s a projection of the value distribution for the top 30 small forwards this season:
Position averages, top 25 small forwards in year-end Yahoo! rank
10-11 - 46% FG, 79 FT%, 1.3 3PM, 15.7 PTS, 5.7 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.8 TO, 1.1 STL, 0.7 BLK
09-10 - 46% FG, 81% FT, 1.2 3PM, 18.2 PTS, 5.8 REB, 2.9 AST, 2.1 TO, 1.2 STL, 0.6 BLK
The rankings below are for nine-category roto leagues. “ADP” numbers are as of 12/19 and “10-11” denotes a player’s year-end rank from the 2010-11 season
|LeBron James||4||2.2||Will miss out on elite PGs at the 1-2 turn; LBJ's 7 APG becomes crucial|
|Kevin Durant||1||1.4||Best value on the board, but lack of dimes means you're reaching later|
|Carmelo Anthony||21||16.1||Is 42% 3PT sustainable? Added threes catapult him into first round|
|Gerald Wallace||53||26.0||Dramatic improvement in Portland; will thrive in new up-tempo system|
|Josh Smith||27||21.9||Dominant defensive force; shot selection only thing holding him back|
|Rudy Gay||61||23.7||One of two to average one steal/block/three; top-10 value before injury|
|Paul Pierce||8||31.0||Has only gotten better with age; only Celtic who can create his own shot|
|Manu Ginobili||12||34.8||Burden shifts to Spurs backcourt to carry load as Duncan declines|
|Danny Granger||26||24.5||Loses even more looks with additions of West, Hill; efficiency drag|
|Dorell Wright||15||30.0||Managed 3000+ minutes, more than previous three seasons combined|
|Andre Iguodala||74||42.3||Point forward transformation complete; needs to attack the basket more|
|Danilo Gallinari||78||59.7||Buying the breakout; deadly 3PT shooter also led all SF's in FTA/FGA|
|Luol Deng||44||52.7||Finally took that extra step back, converting inefficient long twos to threes|
|Joe Johnson||99||49.0||3PT% will normalize, but Iso Joe in decline and poor fit for motion offense|
|Jason Richardson||39||62.5||Mostly a catch-and-shoot 3PT shooter now, which is fine given 40% mark|
|Wesley Matthews||37||71.6||Jack of all trades on offense; Crawford signing poses no imminent threat|
|Lamar Odom||34||65.9||Career-highs in FG%, 3PT% will regress; versatility will be huge for DAL|
|Nicolas Batum||51||98.5||Still waiting on the breakout; won't happen if he remains overly passive|
|DeMar DeRozan||84||80.7||His ceiling is lower than you'd think with such a limited all-around game|
|Boris Diaw||66||97.4||Led all PF's in pure point rating; will get all the minutes he can handle|
|Tony Allen||95||81.1||Led the league in steal rate; avg'd 2.9 spg, 0.9 bpg in 29 mpg as a starter|
|Thaddeus Young||68||126.2||Only 23 and still plenty of room for growth; avg'd 11.6 pts per 40 at rim|
|Chase Budinger||136||113.4||Starting gig, bulk of minutes now his; productive after Battier deadline deal|
|Hedo Turkoglu||71||84.2||Still deadly off the catch from deep; 2nd amongst SF's in pure point rating|
|Paul George||182||119.3||So much untapped potential here; has the ability to fill up a stat sheet|
|C.J. Miles||98||95.2||Scores at high rate, but needs to cut down threes (32%), long twos (37%)|
|Stephen Jackson||107||80.7||Spare yourself the headache; unhappy w/ contract, back/hammy injuries|
|Jared Dudley||72||88.3||Outlook clouded by return of Hill, but still has sneaky multi-cat potential|
|Antawn Jamison||132||79.1||Want no part of him, but dearth of scorers in CLE keeps him relevant|
|Carlos Delfino||148||103.8||Combination of threes and steals is hard to beat; willing and able passer|
|Caron Butler||264||118.3||Lands in a favorable situation, but 31 and coming off a serious knee injury|
|Trevor Ariza||103||118.8||1.6 spg keeps him relevant; shot just 30% on threes, 26% on long twos|
|Corey Maggette||231||120.3||See: Jamison, Antawn|
|Andrei Kirilenko||87||116.4||Worth speculating on in case he ends up in NJ; plenty of AST/REB/BLK|
|Nick Young||133||93.1||Points, threes largely negated by minus- efficiency; too one-dimensional|
|Anthony Morrow||163||118.2||Three-point specialist will thrive playing alongside Deron Williams|
|Shawn Marion||69||136.1||Evolved into post-up threat; posted highest FG% since '06-07 season|
|Landry Fields||62||131.7||If he can recapture that first half magic, well worth the investment here|
|Grant Hill||79||142.1||Plenty of mileage left at 39; all-around game highlighted by efficiency|
|Austin Daye||178||96.6||Inexplicable return of Prince a major buzzkill, but still value to be had|
|Derrick Williams||N/A||123.5||Inability to guard opposing SF's limits him to PF, where Love resides|
|Michael Beasley||127||88.3||Undeniable scoring talent, but does nothing else; total headcase too|
|Rashard Lewis, John Salmons, Mike Dunleavy, Wes Johnson, Gordon Hayward, Ersan Ilyasova, Jonas Jerebko, Richard Hamilton, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, Marvin Williams, Shane Battier|
|Matt Barnes, Carl Landry, Shawne Williams, James Johnson, Shannon Brown, Omri Casspi, Evan Turner, Thabo Sefolosha|
|Players to Target|
Danilo Gallinari – The line of thinking with Gallinari is similar to that of Arron Afflalo. Both will be asked to step into expanded offensive roles this season with Wilson Chandler and J.R. Smith bound to their CBA contracts, and both have progressed enough on that end for me to buy into a breakout. For Gallinari, it’s his newfound ability to draw fouls at an incredible rate – one that led all small forwards. He took his free throw attempt per field goal attempt ratio from 1:3 to 3:5, nearly doubling it in just one season. One thing to keep an eye on is his three-point percentage, which fell for the second straight year. If it slides below 35 percent, Gallo will become an awfully one-dimensional scoring threat as his mid- range jumpers (30 percent) aren’t falling either.
Wesley Matthews – When the Blazers signed him to a five-year $34 million deal last summer, they were thought to have overpaid for a role player who was merely a spot -up shooter with the ability to defend multiple positions. Looking back now just one year removed, they might’ve gotten a bargain. Matthews has grown into a potent scorer – averaging just short of a point every two minutes – who can score in a variety of ways, whether it be off cuts, coming off screens, or in isolation situations. There’s still breakout potential here, even with the recent signing of Jamal Crawford.
Hedo Turkoglu / Boris Diaw – This is more about categorical scarcity than any sort of feigned optimism that either one will suddenly change course and have a standout season. The going gets tough in the mid-to-late rounds for those looking for some help in the assists department, and having Turkoglu and Diaw there as safety valves affords you the option of not extending yourself too far to reach for a point guard while getting the requisite help (4-5 assists per game) needed to stay competitive in the category.
|Players to Avoid|
Danny Granger - In years past he’s been able to get away with a workload usually reserved for superstars (~20 shots a game, ~30 percent of total possessions), but now that the Pacers have actually added legitimate talent around him (West, Collison, Hill, Hibbert), that simply won’t happen anymore. Granger is still the team’s de facto first option, but the upgrade from Josh McRoberts to David West at power forward alone will cost him a few looks. For a player more reliant on volume than he would lead you to believe, and one who managed a -2.6 pure point rating as a catch-and-shoot option, this certainly doesn’t bode well for his value.
Joe Johnson – His decline didn’t come as much of a shocker, considering his isolation-heavy style didn’t exactly mesh with Larry Drew’s newly installed motion offense. Johnson saw his three-point percentage dip by more than seven percent, a statistical anomaly that should normalize and add an extra point per 40 minutes to his scoring average. With that said, his best days are behind him, and he’s already shown signs of decline as he enters his 30s. Johnson struggles to consistently get by defenders nowadays, and when his jump shot is no longer falling, there isn’t a whole lot for him to fall back on.
Dorell Wright - Let me be clear: last season was no fluke. Wright did, more or less, what he had been doing for most of his career – this time with added minutes and volume. And that’s where I’m a bit skeptical. He’s had durability issues from the get-go, and before last season had played a total of 211 games and 4,124 minutes over a seven-year period. To put it into perspective: Wright played more minutes last year than the previous three combined. There’s little doubt that he’d be able to at least come close to matching his ’11 numbers if he plays over 2,500 minutes (prorated) this season, but the question is: will he even get there?
Chase Budinger - Oh, what could’ve been. Budinger was looking at an expanded role this season regardless with a starting job and bulk of the minutes at small forward to himself, but the original Chris Paul trade that was killed by the NBAleans Hornets would’ve been a major boon to his value (the Rockets were set to deal Kevin Martin and Luis Scola for Pau Gasol). A deadline deal that saw Shane Battier dealt to Memphis enabled him to rebound from a painfully slow start, and he’ll look to build upon a strong post-break finish this season.
Pre All-Star: 18.1 mpg, 7.8 ppg, 1.0 3PM, 3.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 42 FG%, 80 FT%, 31 3PT% Post All-Star: 31.7 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 1.5 3PM, 4.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 44 FG%, 90 FT%, 35 3PT%
Paul George – Though the numbers might not reflect it just yet, there were plenty of indicators in his rookie season that hinted at George’s breakout potential. The biggest area he’ll have to improve upon is his three-point shooting (29.7 percent), which shouldn’t be a problem given his fluid shot mechanics and the fact he hit an impressive 43 percent of his long twos. George already does a number of things well – he’s a proficient finisher around the rim (66 percent), rebounds quite well for his position (7.1 rebounds per 40 minutes), and ranked third in steal rate last year among small forwards. He may be another year away from a true breakout, but you can still expect some substantial growth across the board in his second season.
C.J. Miles – The Jazz will likely lose free agent Andrei Kirilenko to the Nets, which frees up the path for Miles to stake his claim on the starting small forward job. The lack of range is still a problem, as he shot just 34 percent from beyond 16 feet. Miles still managed the eighth-best scoring rate at his position despite that, mainly because he can blow by defenders with ease and consistently finish in the basket area (67 percent).There’s certainly room for growth, and even marginal improvement on his jump shot would go a long way.
Jonas Jerebko - I touted him last year and I’ll do it again this year. Jerebko lost his entire second season to an Achilles injury, a real shame considering the promise he exhibited as a rookie. He’s felt no lingering effects from the injury so far in camp and has been at full strength for months now, so we can table the health concerns for now. Jonas’ game is built on athleticism and moving off the ball; he’s got some range (34 percent from beyond 16 feet), but does most of his work around the basket area (61 percent). Charlie Villanueva is the incumbent starter at the 4 at the moment, but Jerebko is the simply the better option both short- and long-term, and is the better complement to the other four starters. Expect him to beat out Villanueva at some point, and sooner rather than later.
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