Splitsville: Numbers to sleep on

The numbers don’t lie. It’s an old adage that should be qualified with “but …” when dealing with baseball statistics. Home runs, ERA and stolen bases can certainly tell you some things about a player, but you’ve got to look a bit deeper than the standard 5x5 stats to get the entire picture. Splitsville is a weekly look at some of the numbers, but we’ll take a deeper look to make sure we’re getting the whole story, while also calling out some of the week’s notable pitching and batting lines.

2008 Sabermetrics tables: Batters | Pitchers | Glossary

2007 Sabermetrics tables: Batters | Pitchers

Carlos Quentin put up some of the best offensive numbers in the game this season, producing as big of a return on investment as any player in the game when you consider that his line (.288, 96 R, 36 HR, 100 RBI, 7 SB) was plucked off the wire in all but a handful of leagues. He went undrafted even in my deepest league (420 rostered players). A fairly good description for Quentin is that he was a “post-hype sleeper” in that fantasy owners did have high hopes for him, but those high hopes were at the beginning of the 2007 season. He followed up some very good minor league numbers with a promising major league debut, and the 2007 season looked bright. A shoulder injury in the spring (which eventually required surgery) cast a cloud over his entire season; even the Diamondbacks gave up on him, trading him in the offseason. Working his way back to full health this spring, Quentin earned a job in the White Sox outfield and the rest is history.

While I’m certainly not going to suggest that we all should have seen this coming, hindsight shows that perhaps it shouldn’t have come as a shock. He was a young player with a very solid resume, the only black mark being an injury-marred season, presented with an everyday role in a potent lineup. With that in mind, let’s look forward to 2009 in an early attempt at identifying players who could have some level of a Quentin-like impact. The following is a sampling of players who, for one reason or another, figure to make a much more substantial impact on the fantasy landscape next season than they did in the current one, and their services are likely to be available at an initial bargain.

Hitters

Chris Iannetta (Col – C)
Iannetta has actually put together a solid fantasy season. His 44 runs, 16 home runs and 56 runs batted have him ninth among catchers in season rank, at 375th overall. The kicker is that he’s had only 298 at bats. Project his numbers to 500 at bats and you have 74 runs, 27 home runs and 94 runs batted in. Also of note: the 25-year-old’s home OPS is 110 points lower than his road OPS. Regardless, if Yorvit Torrealba is (finally) diminished to full-time backup duty in 2009, then you’ve got a realistic shot at top-five numbers at the position from Iannetta.

Jeff Clement (Sea – C)
Clement was somewhat hyped at the time of his promotion in late April, but he’s struggled with his first extended look at major league pitching (.227/.295/.360 in 203 AB). He hit for average, power and showed great discipline in the minors, however, and there’s still plenty of reason to expect this 25-year-old to be one of the best hitters at his position. In his three stints in Triple-A, he raised his batting average from .257 to .275 to .335 and his OPS from .668 to .867 to 1.131.

Pablo Sandoval (SF – C, 1B, 3B)
Sandoval’s mention in last week’s Buzz Index means that he’s made some fans down the stretch, and for good reason. The 22-year-old Joey Votto (1B – Cin)
Votto has been just about as good as was hoped for as a 25-year-old rookie. He’s hit for a respectable average (.285 in 481 AB), decent power (19 HR, .468 SLG) and showed good plate discipline (54:96 BB:K, .359 OBP). Put him in a steady and improved lineup spot for the whole of 2009 and, with even incremental improvements in average and power, you’re looking at a pretty serious breakout candidate.

Chris Davis (Tex – 1B, 3B)
Davis was obscenely productive over the past two seasons in the minors – .310 average, 56 2B and 59 HR in 792 AB – and it carried over to the bigs with the Rangers. He’s homered every 17.2 at bats, putting him in the same neighborhood as Jermaine Dye, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira. Given that he’s only had 258 at bats with the Rangers, his price is likely to get the partial-season discount in 2009 drafts.

Troy Tulowitzki (Col – SS)
Most people will just see Tulo’s finishing line when it’s all said and done in 2008, and it won’t be pretty. He’s currently at .249/.321/.387 in 90 games, with seven home runs and one steal. What’s bound to get lost in the shuffle is that he’s been busy digging himself out of a very deep hole since the All-Star break. In 51 games since the break, he’s hit .319/.382/.462, not a huge departure from his breakout 2007 line (.291/.359/.479). He’s likely to come at a heavy discount in 2009 drafts, but he’ll also be highly motivated to make a clean break from his nightmare 2008 campaign, which included his dreadful start in the wake of a fat new contract and his embarrassing self-inflicted hand injury.

Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
The 21-year-old Upton dealt with peaks, valleys and injury during the season; while his current numbers are uninspiring on face value, they show promise when you look a bit deeper. He’s already showing a serious penchant for drawing walks. His rate of one every 6.3 at bats is in the same neighborhood as Hanley Ramirez, Grady Sizemore and Joe Mauer, and his on-base percentage (.365) is 30 points above the league average. While it’s true that he strikes out a ton, his BB:K (0.47) is just slightly below average (0.50). He’s also already showing good power – project his numbers to 550 at bats and you get 30 2B, seven 3B, and 23 home runs. Keep in mind that he’s not yet a month past his 21st birthday.

Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
Bruce has put together a very respectable rookie season for the Reds, hitting 18 home runs in 97 games thus far, and remains one of the game’s premier offensive prospects. The reason he gets a mention in this column is because that .260 average is well below expectations, particularly since he was hitting .364 in Triple-A at the time of his promotion and was hitting .342 after 20 games with the Reds. Will he fall in many drafts in 2009 because he wasn’t other-worldly as a rookie? It’s likely. Should he? Nope.

Elijah Dukes (Was – OF)
Injuries have prevented Dukes from truly breaking out this season, but the signs are most certainly there. He’s hit 12 home runs and stole 13 bases in 71 games – numbers that extrapolate to 25 home runs and 27 steals in 150 games – all the while showing very good plate discipline (walk rate of once every 6.6 AB). He’ll get the proverbial “if he can stay healthy” tag, but the sky is the limit for this 24-year-old, and you’ll want to have stake if his first big step comes in 2009.

Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
Jones was in the midst of a very promising stretch when a foot fracture put him on the shelf in early August. He hit .315 in 46 games from June 10 to Aug. 2, albeit with modest total base output (6 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR). The power will eventually be there for this 23-year-old. In 800 Triple-A at bats, he hit 46 doubles, 10 triples and 41 home runs.

Pitchers

Kevin Slowey (Min – SP)
Slowey shouldn’t need a mention here, but it’s pretty clear that he does when his percent-owned level is still hovering around the 75-percent mark. This despite his current season rank of 100 being 24th among SP. He’s a few more groundballs away from being a top-10 fantasy SP in 2009. He walks next-to-nobody (1.2/9) and has an ever-improving strikeout rate (6.9/9), but he’s allowed 21 home runs thanks to his fly-ball numbers (43.8%, 36.2% GB). His minor league numbers are and will continue to be the stuff of legend. You don’t compile a 1.94 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 367.1 innings by happenstance. I can only assume that he’ll be under the radar in 2009 drafts when he’s not universally owned at this point, despite a 10-4 record, with a 3.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 87 strikeouts over his past 17 starts (108.2 IP).

Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
Cueto will certainly fit the mold of post-hype sleeper. The early-season buzz around this 22-year-old threatened to blot out the sun, but then his ERA proceeded to hover around 5.00 for most of four months. This, of course, was due to an exorbitant amount of home runs. His 29 allowed on the season are fifth-most in the league. All has not been lost for Cueto, however. His K:BB (2.4:1) is solidly above the league average (2.0:1) and better than his wildly-successful teammate Edinson Volquez (2.2:1). Of course, the major difference between those two has been opponent slugging percentage (Cueto .461, Volquez .351), thanks to the massive differential in ground balls (Cueto 37.4%, Volquez 47.4%). Cueto himself has shown some improvement. He allowed 18 home runs in his first 79.2 innings (5.42 ERA), but that’s fallen to 11 in his past 85.2 innings (3.99 ERA). A certain percentage of the population is going to want next-to-nothing to do with Cueto in 2009. That will be a huge mistake if this was just a case of the hype machine getting fired up a season too early.

Max Scherzer (Ari – SP, RP)
Scherzer is back in the D-backs’ rotation late enough that not a lot of fantasy owners are still around to pay attention, but it’s still enough time to flash insane promise. In two September starts, he’s whiffed 20 in 11.0 innings, allowing just seven hits and walking four. That brings his season numbers in 14 games (5 starts) to a 2.80 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .213 BAA in 45.0 innings, with 34 hits, 18 walks, and 54 strikeouts. Check out his minor league numbers, too, because this guy is the real deal. We’re talking Tim Lincecum upside with a multiple-round discount.

Yovani Gallardo (SP – Mil)
This was supposed to be Gallardo’s year, but a torn ACL in early May assured that it was not to be. The good news is that his rehab has gone well enough that it’s possible that he’ll be back in the Brewers’ bullpen for the postseason. From a fantasy perspective, all the injury did was drop him on 2009 draft sheets. He’s still the uber-talented 22-year-old that was responsible for this and this. He’s got the potential to be a serious draft value next season.

Josh Johnson (Fla – SP, RP)
Johnson was on his way to really big things following his fantastic rookie season, but he dealt with a variety of arm issues limited him to 17.2 innings in 2007 and he eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. He’s now just over a year removed from the surgery and looking very good. In his past eight starts (52.2 IP), he’s compiled a 2.91 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, allowing just two home runs, walking 15, and striking out 50. With a clean bill of health and even more time removed from his surgery, that talent that was supposed to come to the forefront in 2007 has a good chance to show itself in 2009.

Phil Hughes (NYY – SP)
Hughes was supposed to be very good for the Yankees this season, and his first start went according to plan (6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). Things went downhill from there as he went 0-4 in his next five starts, allowing 30 hits and 20 earned runs in 16.0 innings, with 12 walks and nine strikeouts, and then went on an extended stint on the DL with a rib injury. He’s rejoined the Yankees and is slated to pitch Wednesday, but clearly it’s already a lost season and his 2009 stock will suffer because of it. A quick reset on his back-story: Hughes followed up a phenomenal 2006 season in Single- and Double-A (146.0 IP, 2.03 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 91 H, 168 K) with a strong effort as a 21-year-old rookie in 2007 for the Yankees (72.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .235 BAA, 58 K). He was just one of many things that went wrong with Yankee pitching in 2008, but a return to expected form in 2009 will lead to much rejoicing from his fantasy owners.

Ian Kennedy (NYY – SP)
Kennedy, another piece of the puzzle that didn’t fall into place for the Yanks, has had a similar season to Hughes in that he’s dealt with ineffectiveness and injury. The similarities don’t end there, as Kennedy has a history of Slowey-like minors numbers (including a 2.22 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .202 BAA this season) and his first look at big league bats was a good one (19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .191 BAA in 2007). Clearly he wasn’t ready to get it done this season (8.17 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, .309 BAA in 39.2 IP), but it’s just a matter of time (2009, perhaps?) before the 24-year-old’s talent comes with him to the majors.

Yusmeiro Petit (Ari – SP, RP)
Petit put his talent on display in six July/August starts, during which he compiled a 2.65 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 34.0 innings, allowing just 20 hits and six walks while striking out 25. His rotation spot in 2009 will depend on the fates of Randy Johnson and Doug Davis, and it’s a situation that is certainly worth monitoring. In 115.0 innings between Triple-A and the bigs, the 23-year-old has walked just 21 and struck out 108, compiling a 1.11 WHIP in the process.