Splitsville: The ‘it’ guy

The numbers don’t lie. It’s an old adage that should be qualified with “but …” when dealing with baseball statistics. Home runs, ERA and stolen bases can certainly tell you some things about a player, but you’ve got to look a bit deeper than the standard 5x5 stats to get the entire picture. Splitsville is a weekly look at some of the numbers, but we’ll take a deeper look to make sure we’re getting the whole story, while also calling out some of the week’s notable pitching and batting lines.

2008 Sabermetrics tables: Batters | Pitchers | Glossary

2007 Sabermetrics tables: Batters | Pitchers

Stat Trends, Streaks, and Anomalies

• Last week I brought up some disparities in starting pitchers’ stats and their percent owned numbers. This week I’m going to do the same with a few position players, comparing ownership levels and post-break numbers.

Adam Lind (11%): .316 (133 AB), 25 R, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB
J.D. Drew (87%): .209 (86 AB), 15 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB

Denard Span (21%): .303 (145 AB), 28 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB
Kosuke Fukudome (79%): .237 (114 AB), 12 R, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB

Marlon Byrd (36%): .370 (127 AB), 27 R, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB
Hunter Pence (92%): .246 (134 AB), 23 R, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB

Ian Stewart (37%): .361 (122 AB), 23 R, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB
Casey Blake (84%): .273 (132 AB), 14 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB

Remember, people, this isn’t the time to be rostering a player because of his perceived and/or name value. The only thing that helps in the standings over the season’s final month-plus is actual production.

• Here’s your bi-weekly Rich Harden K/9 update: Harden has compiled 23 strikeouts over his past three starts (19.0 IP, 10.895/9), moving his season numbers to 162 strikeouts in 126.0 IP. His current mark of 11.571/9 has him at 10th all time.

• Remember back when Cody Ross was going to help carry fantasy teams to new heights in run production? I’m sure you need a refresher at this point, so let me help you out: In 20 games during the month of May, Ross hit 10 home runs despite just 50 at bats (one HR every 5.0 AB). Things haven’t exactly panned out for Ross as was hoped since then. In 75 games from June 1 forward, he’s hit just eight home runs (HR every 32.5 AB). He has at least diversified a bit – in May, all of his extra-base hits were home runs (14 H, 4 1B, 10 HR); his 71 hits since June 1 are a bit more balanced (40 1B, 19 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR).

• How has your luck been with fill-in closers this season? The best of the weren’t-closing-at-the-start-of-the-season bunch over the past month include Brian Fuentes, Jensen Lewis, Brad Ziegler and Chris Perez. Since Aug. 1, they’ve combined for 25 saves in 25 chances, with a 1.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 44.1 innings.

• Fantasy owners that stream starting pitchers are probably already aware of this, but the Mariners have been an absolutely fantastic matchup for starters in recent weeks. Over the past 18 games, opposing starters are 11-1 with a compiled 3.49 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 111.0 IP.

• Widely-available starters among the league leaders in opponent OPS over the past three weeks (minimum three starts): Yusmeiro Petit (.503, third), Hiroki Kuroda (.509, fifth), Braden Looper (.522, seventh), Dave Bush (.565, 13th), Kevin Slowey (.575, 15th), Jorge De La Rosa (.590, 16th), Jamie Moyer (.606, 17th), Glen Perkins (.621, 20th) and Mike Pelfrey (.630, 22nd).

Notable Pitching Game(s) of the Week

Clayton Richard (CWS – SP) 8/25 at Bal
6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 4 K (88 pitches, 59 strikes)
Richard had a good week for the White Sox, winning both of his two starts and compiling a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12.0 innings. (The reason I listed his numbers versus the Orioles instead of his 6.0 shutout IP versus the Mariners is because the Orioles more resemble a major league offense). The good with Richard includes his minor league numbers for the season – they include just 20 walks (1.4/9) and five home runs (0.4/9) in 127.2 innings, resulting in a tidy 2.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s the kind of combination that usually works for fantasy purposes – great control and a high groundball rate. With that said, he struggled mightily in his first three starts of the season (combined 13.0 IP, 15 ER), and his current major league numbers include a 6.23 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a .316 BAA in 26.0 total innings. His next two starts should give us a good idea of where he’s really at right now as he’s set to face the Red Sox and the Angels during his next two turns.

Notable Batting Game(s) of the Week

Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF) 8/25 at KC
5 AB, 3 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 S
Cruz got a decent jump on the answer to the question “can he keep it up?” If you don’t know what “it” is, then have a look at these numbers. At the time of Cruz’s promotion from the minors on Monday, he was hitting .341/.430/.693 in 387 at bats, with 37 home runs and 24 steals in 104 games. That level of production is, in a word, ridiculous. The thing is that we’ve seen this before. Cruz hit .352/.428/.698 in 162 Triple-A at bats in 2007, but managed just .235/.287/.384 in 307 at bats for the Rangers at the big league level. Perhaps at age 28 Cruz is finally ready to put things together and become a productive major league hitter. What is good information for fantasy owners to know is that the Rangers will give him every opportunity to prove that he is. Deep-league owners have little to no reason to not add Cruz at the expense of their current worst player. If he does keep “it” up, then mixed leaguers will be considering his services – as part of the powerful Rangers’ offense – sooner than later.