Friends and Family: Post-draft Q&A
By Brandon Funston, Yahoo! Sports Mar 17, 5:53 pm EDT
The fifth annual Yahoo! Friends and Family League fantasy baseball draft took place this past week. The owners will be looking to knock off Scott Pianowski, who claimed last year’s league title for the first time after knocking on the door with two second-place finishes in his previous three seasons in the league. He’s the closest thing we have to the Boston Red Sox …
Ironically, 2008 was the first year that Pianowski didn’t claim the league’s top honor for most player moves made – he lost out to one of the league’s Average Joes, Craig Falzone, by one transaction. Pianowski became the fourth different manager to win a title in the league’s four years, joining Yahoo! Andy Behrens (’07), RotoWire’s Chris Liss (’06) and myself (’05) as previous championship-belt holders.
This year’s participants include a Yahoo! contingent of myself, Behrens, Brad Evans, Matt Romig, Scott Pianowski and Gordon Edes; Yahoo! “Average Joes” Craig Falzone and Michael Gehlken; BuserSports.com’ Matt Buser; RotoWire’s Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson; RotoExperts’ Doug Anderson; SNY.tv’s Michael Salfino; and The Hardball Times’ Paul Singman.
• Here’s a complete list of the Y! Friends and Family League draft results.
After the draft, I asked each participant two hard-hitting questions about their draft and also which pick(s) was the biggest reach and steal of the draft. And, not to be left out, I had colleague Scott Pianowski fire a couple questions my way. Here’s a look at what each league member had to say:
Note: Yahoo! Sports baseball columnist Gordon Edes is the one owner omission below.
Yahoo! – Brandon Funston (Previous F&F finishes: 9th, 7th, 9th, 1st)
Q: You must have a pretty good health plan for your club because there are a lot of physical questions about your starting pitching. Chad Billingsley should be fine in his recovery from last winter’s broken leg and Josh Johnson returned strong last summer from Tommy John surgery, but we also have to mention Max Scherzer (shoulder issues) and Chris Carpenter (back from elbow surgery). Ian Snell, Armando Galarraga and Jordan Zimmerman round out your rotation; defend this staff.
A: Yeah, it would be an understatement to say I’m a little concerned about my pitching staff. But, if I’m going to feel uneasy about a sub-section of my roster, better pitching than hitting. I have three upside x-factors in Scherzer, Carpenter and Snell. I’m hoping to hit the jackpot with one and get at least serviceability from another. I fully expect that one of them is going to leave me wanting. But, if it’s only one, I’ll be happy, and there’ll be ample opportunities on the waiver wire to plug holes. This staff probably won’t do much of the heavy-lifting for me in the standings, but it at least has the potential to be competitive if I give it enough TLC during the season.
Q: You weren’t afraid to put the prospector hat on, taking two post-hype guys (Andy LaRoche, Jeff Clement) and one pre-hype guy (Jordan Zimmerman). What are you expecting from these players?
A: I took Zimmerman a round (Round 20) after pitching prospects Rick Porcello and Tommy Hanson came off the board, and it’s easy to imagine that Zimmerman, given a wide-open Nationals rotation, will net out as the best of the three in ’09 – anyone else notice that Washington’s top prospect has pitched 12.1 scoreless innings this spring, with a 16:2 K-to-BB ratio?
LaRoche is another player tearing it up this spring (hitting over .500), and we’re talking about someone who was listed as the Dodgers’ No. 2 prospect by Baseball America prior to last season. He’s got post-hype sleeper written all over him. He was the 288th pick of the draft, so there was no risk involved with the investment. As for Clement, the potential is there, but a rough spring and an unclear role have already soured me on his ’09 potential. I let him go post-draft in favor of teammate David Aardsma, who has put himself in the running for the M’s closer job with an impressive March.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: My eyebrows didn’t shoot higher for any selection than that of Justin Upton, who Chris Liss took with the No. 86 pick. I know he really likes the younger Upton, but I’m almost certain that he could have had him in the next round at pick No. 111. Perhaps his sources told him that another owner in the league was jonesing for Upton, as well … who knows.
Some of my favorite steals: Roy Oswalt at No. 112; Jermaine Dye at No. 126; Brian Fuentes at No. 135 (I blew that one, taking B.J. Ryan two spots earlier, overlooking Fuentes in the process.)
Yahoo! – Andy Behrens (Previous F&F finishes: 7th, 1st)
Q: I have to ask since you wrote about it in our 2B Primer. Here’s what you said in that article:
“(Jose) Lopez is two years younger than (Alexei) Ramirez and he finished slightly higher in the Yahoo! ranks last season, yet those players aren’t close in 2009 ADP. Over at Mock Draft Central, Lopez’s ADP is 163.6; Ramirez’s is 48.1. Even if you believe that Ramirez will out-produce Lopez in 2009, it’s tough to argue that the difference between them is accurately reflected by their draft positions.”
Ok, you know where this is going. You took Ramirez at pick No. 52 and I landed Jose Lopez at pick No. 161. Given your previous comments, can you please validate the Ramirez selection?
A: Short answer: No.
Long answer: Going in, I really thought more owners would draft the way Paul Singman did, filling the SS, 2B and MI spots early. Paul did it within the first five rounds. It’s not uncommon to see experts take that approach, yet he was the only manager who did it in the F&F. Normally in a mixed league, if I’m not getting a top tier shortstop or second basemen, I’ll wait. The guys who rank 12th at the position really aren’t that bad. But in the F&F we collectively start 42 middle infielders. I decided that if I took my usual approach, I might be looking at guys like Akinori Iwamura and Orlando Hudson in Round 11. That would not have been ideal.
But, of course things didn’t go that way. Basically, I anticipated behavior that never materialized, and it led me to a pick that I didn’t need to make – and, in fact, to the exact pick that I’ve told others not to make in public leagues. I feel kinda like Jim Cramer here, except not rich.
Q: Sticking with middle infielders, you filled out your three spots (Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Johnny Peralta) by Round 9. Did you go into the draft with the idea of locking the MI spots up early, or did value lead the way?
A: Well, the Ramirez and Uggla picks had something to do with me expecting the rest of the league to draft in a certain way (see above). But Uggla probably would have been the call at pick No. 61 anyway; he’s averaged 105 runs, 30 homers and 90 RBIs over the past three seasons. Peralta is a guy that I just happen to like as a low-cost alternative at shortstop. Last year he led his position in RBIs (89), and he was third in HR (23) and runs (104). He was not a difficult choice at pick No. 117, especially in a league where each team starts three middle infielders.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: Jonathan Papelbon went with the fourth pick of Round 4. To me that’s a reach, even if you feel like you need to own an elite closer. Mariano Rivera went 37 picks later, Joe Nathan went 42 picks later, K-Rod went 45 picks later … you get the idea.
As for steal-of-the-draft candidates: Singman took Jason Motte and Chris Ray very late (Rounds 20 and 21), and either of those guys could end the year as high-end closers. Jeff Erickson grabbed Tommy Hanson and Travis Snider at picks 264 and 269; it would be no great surprise if at least one of those worked out well.
I’d mention that Kendry Morales in Round 21 was a total steal, but I’m too modest for that.
Yahoo! – Brad Evans (Previous F&F finishes: 10th, 4th)
Q: Four starting pitchers (James Shields, Cliff Lee, Rich Harden, Kevin Slowey) among your top 11 picks? Who are you, and what did you do with the Brad Evans who always preaches the strategy of penny-stock pitchers in the late rounds?
A: I put a sock in Brad Evans’ mouth, slugged him over the head with a steel shovel and buried him underneath the Cubby Bear outside Wrigley. Based on the Noise’s horrendous string of F&F performances, it was time to abandon traditional concepts and try something new. Frankly, this writer is tired of sporting WHIP numbers that resemble Bartolo Colon. The Shields-Lee-Harden-Slowey nucleus should keep this team very competitive in several critical pitching categories. Maybe talk of man-crushes will be banished next (Not really).
Q: For a guy that writes the Farm Aid feature for the Roto Arcade blog and generally likes to wax poetic about high-upside youngsters, your team is looking surprisingly “mature.” Were you looking to play it safer than usual this year and, in particular, can you talk about your rationale for taking a UTIL-only David Ortiz, coming off an injury-plagued ’08, with your Round 3 pick after taking two power first basemen with your first two picks?
A: Reaching for upside prospects too early can burn teams. Normally, I try to mesh a young player or three with a veteran foundation. This year, several productive codgers were the best players available at the time (e.g. Ortiz and Magglio Ordonez). To expound on Big Papi: he’s healthy, in a great lineup and one-year removed from the typical prime years for the average power hitter. His numbers may suffer somewhat without Manny’s protection, but a .300-35-110-90 season is definitely within reach. In the early rounds, I’m all about accumulating multi-cat stats, regardless of position.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: ROD: Matt Romig’s arm must be in a sling over his Matt Wieters selection in Round 6. Look, the kid will be a superstar, but it’s very possible the O’s front office sends him to Triple-A for more seasoning. In a single catcher league, there was plenty of backstops, and general positional talent, still on the board. Bobby Abreu, Carlos Pena and Hunter Pence would’ve been wiser selections.
SOD: Carlos Zambrano falling to Round 12 was ridiculous. Dwindling K/9 rates and injury concerns aside, Big Z should easily notch an ERA below 4.00 with 15-plus wins. Gehlken scored a nice value.
Yahoo! – Scott Pianowski (Previous F&F finishes: 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd)
Q: You took two sure-bet closers in Jose Valverde and Bobby Jenks, then added a couple gambles in Brandon Lyon and Kevin Gregg. You are one of the most active owner of all-time in the Friends and Family league and you keep late-night hours writing the nightly (in-season) Roto Arcade blog feature, Closing Time, which focuses on the late-inning developments around the league, among other things. Given your micro-managing prowess and the fact that you are consistently on the scene when closer roles change, did you give any thought to giving the closer position short shrift in the draft?
A: I agree with everything you’re saying here. I openly admit that Closing Time helps me in this group; we all pay attention, but the CT gig ensures that I’ll have a microscope on every baseball happening when I’m on the clock, and that’s valuable in a high-volume league. I was somewhat tempted to pay even less for possible saves at the draft than I did (picks 131, 150, 206, 262).
That established, we’ve got 14 teams this year and it’s probably the strongest field in F&F History (a nod to our four new owners), and I expect plenty of competition for the saves that come out of the weeds. I also consider closers to be a currency, easily traded if need be. Last year I moved a bullpen stopper (Kerry Wood) for Cliff Lee in the middle of the season, and as coincidence would have it, I just traded Jenks for Ryan Dempster as this piece went to press (I needed another reliable strikeout arm; well, I hope Dempster is that guy). Looks like I’ll be back scrambling for saves like the rest of us, though I’m optimistic that Lyon can hold the job, I think Gregg is the front-runner at Wrigley, and I feel good about Valverde.
Q: At pick 75, you took Javier Vazquez, which is more than 50 spots higher than his Yahoo! ADP (128.3). You could have had Francisco Liriano, ’08 AL Cy Young Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Roy Oswalt, to name a few. What is your argument for going with Vazquez? And were you worried he wouldn’t last at least one more round?
A: Most of my draft was about taking the values left on the table, but it does seem like I reached on Vazquez. He got a lot of love in the Y! Starting Pitcher ranks, and honestly I was working more on an internal ADP than the paper one; I felt if I wanted him, I had to act then and there (not the ideal way to draft, but I’ll make a few exceptions if I really want a player). Vazquez has rang up 413 punchouts over the last two years, and while he’s been a touch frustrating because his ERA generally sails past what the peripherals suggest, a switch to the NL (and out of US Cellular Field) might change that. As for Vazquez over the names you mention, it was a matter of opting for an NL pitcher with the safest strikeout projection.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: I wanted Mike Pelfrey but never got around to pulling the trigger; I wasn’t happy to see Mike Salfino snag him with pick 280. Pelfrey’s pedigree and power sinker get your attention, and there’s some buzz that Citi Field might favor the pitchers even more than Shea Stadium did. Other potential steals: Paul Maholm (279), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (314), Ian Snell (301), Carlos Gomez (268), Asdrubal Cabrera (315).
Carlos Marmol has electric stuff and anytime he’s pitching, I’m glued to the set. But I’m not the type of owner who picks a closer in the top 120 selections, and I can’t use the No. 98 pick on a reliever who’s not established yet as the ninth-inning guy. If Marmol does get the job, this will look like a fantastic selection, but I’m more in favor of saves on a budget. Other reaches: Ricky Nolasco (71; I love him but he’s done it once), Joe Mauer (67; health concerns and catcher isn’t a tough fill in our format), J.J. Hardy (65), Yovani Gallardo (87), Javier Vazquez (as discussed).
Yahoo! – Matt Romig (Previous F&F finishes: 5th, 9th, 7th, 7th)
Q: You robbed the cradle twice in the top 80 picks, selecting Chris Davis (pick 51) and Matt Wieters (pick 79). How confident are you that those two will return the value that you invested in them?
A: Let’s be honest, if you polled the regulars in this league and asked them who would reach early for guys like Davis and Wieters, I’m sure my name would come up a few times, if not every time. I’m a keeper-league drafter stuck in a re-draft environment. I also like to have fun. We’re all in this league to win it, of course, but the experts have rankings to justify and reputations to uphold. As a humble editor, I can afford to experiment a bit. That’s not to say I’m screwing around. Davis hit 40 homers with stops at three levels a year ago and is in a great ballpark-lineup situation. A run at 35 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBIs isn’t out of the question. Wieters is a bit more of a wild card. Andy mentioned the absurd projections being thrown around in the catcher primer. Perhaps I got carried away here. I had intended to avoid the top-tier catchers altogether, but when pick No. 79 came around (he went 16 picks earlier in our magazine mock), I took a stab. I’ll settle for 80 percent of the projected upside.
Q: John Lackey, Roy Oswalt, Scott Kazmir, Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lester and Rich Harden were just some of the pitchers you passed over in favor of Scott Baker in Round 8? Considering you took him almost 60 spots higher than his current Yahoo! ADP, what is it that made you pass over those other arms in favor of Baker?
A: Baker is a guy I had targeted and since he’s a member of that crowded middle tier of pitchers, I really wasn’t at all sure where he’d come off the board. Lackey (home run bug), Dice-K (WHIP killer) and Kazmir (control issues) aren’t favorites of mine. If I had to do it over again, I might take Oswalt over Baker. There’s more certainty there. But Baker is just 27, he makes hitters earn their way on, and he could have won 15 games a year ago if not for some injury issues not related to his right arm. I think he’ll be one of the better SP values coming out of 2009 drafts.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: Salfino’s selection of Troy Tulowitzki as his second shortstop in the Round 4 seemed a bit curious. That said, I liked his pick of Garrett Atkins at No. 85.
Yahoo! “Average Joe” – Michael Gehlken (Previous F&F finishes: 4th)
Q: I recall you let the draft timer tick down to the final seconds before you pulled the trigger on Jay Bruce with pick No. 59. There’s no denying his upside, but was their an internal struggle to justify taking him more than 40 spots ahead of his current Yahoo! ADP value? What are your “safe” projections for him this year?
A: I can’t say ADP was on my mind when I was deliberating this pick, or any other pick for that matter. I’ve learned there is little loyalty given to ADP and pre-rankings in these expert leagues after the first few rounds. If I hadn’t taken Bruce that round, somebody else would have.
The internal debate centered around three players I planned on targeting in the pick 50 to 70 range: Chad Billingsley, Bruce and Stephen Drew (in order). Billingsley was the high guy on my board, but I had just taken Dan Haren five picks earlier, so it was a question of whether or not I was willing to go pitcher again. I wasn’t. My offense needed more power, and no one better than Bruce to provide it.
As for a 2009 projection, I’d say a .275/80/28/90/4 line is a realistic starting point. I’m optimistic, though, that he can surpass those numbers this season; he’s certainly capable of it.
Q: You chose the unconventional route of taking eight pitchers among your top 14 picks, including three closers. Was this intentional, or were you just drafting to the value on the board? Also, with four closers (and a potential fifth in C.J. Wilson), are you gearing up for trades down the road, or just not feeling too comfortable with the closers you chose?
A: Yeah, that’s not a typical hitter/pitcher breakdown for me. It’s just how it played out this time. I went offense with my first three picks and four of my first five. That was by design. From there, it was all about draft value, and I guess we saw what happened next.
I don’t view it as a bad thing. My pitching staff is loaded with guys I’m confident in and, as you suspected, I’m purposefully setting myself up for a trade down the road by rostering as many as five closers. I also feel good about some potential offensive bargains I found in the middle-to-late rounds (i.e. Alex Gordon at No. 143, Colby Rasmus at No. 250, Michael Cuddyer at No. 278, and Daniel Murphy at No. 331). If they pan out and I stay active on the wire, this could be a fun season.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: ROD: I didn’t like seeing Derek Jeter go as early as he did at pick No. 58. His power numbers have steadily dropped since 2004, and there’s no reason to expect a major reversal this year. Stephen Drew would be my choice if I’m taking a shortstop at that spot.
SOD: My biggest regret with this draft was selecting Dioner Navarro over Felipe Lopez at pick No. 199. Pianowski ended up taking Lopez the next round at pick No. 213. Well done.
Yahoo! “Average Joe” – Craig Falzone (Previous F&F finishes: 2nd, 4th)
Q: We added an extra UTIL spot in this league to give owners a little extra flexibility. You scoffed at that notion by taking both Jim Thome and Travis Hafner, who are only eligible at the UTIL spot. Any concerns that you’ve put your offense in a tight spot. Also, what are your expectations for Hafner, who you selected at pick No. 249?
A: Dang, I thought we actually had to draft guys with a “UTIL” next to their name for each UTIL slot. Kidding. What happened was, in the early rounds I looked for players with across-the-board skills. So later on, I started snapping up slo-pitch softball types to give my lineup a little more punch. Plus, I get Hafner and Thome mixed up, so I figured it’s easier to just roster them both. Hafner recently told a reporter he’s healthy, so I don’t see why he can’t at least approach .290/30/100 again. Unless he’s a liar or the reporter misquoted him really, really badly.
Q: In last year’s Friends and Family League, you edged out Scott Pianowski for the honor of the most moves made (194). Since the draft concluded, you’ve already made six moves – you made five moves before any other owner had made one. Are you a tinkerer by nature, or is there a method to your madness? You finished tied for second last year. How much did your manic obsession for change help you or hurt you in your ’08 quest?
A: I tend to lose focus toward the end of drafts, so when I checked the draft results and realized I didn’t have any spare pitchers, I grabbed a few out of the freebie pool. How did Rafael Soriano not get drafted? I know he’s a risk, but what pitcher isn’t? Also, I’m always ready to drop my last couple bench players anytime something shiny catches my eye, so that explains Chris Dickerson on my roster. And nobody better get between me and my internet connection the moment I hear Corey Patterson lands a starting gig somewhere. God help me.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: I think Behrens nabbing Bobby Abreu in Round 7 is a steal. The guy plays with all the passion of someone picking up his dry cleaning, but by the end of the year, every year, he’s filled up all the hitting categories with good numbers. Meanwhile, Romig drafting a rookie catcher in Round 6 (Matt Wieters) is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. I know this kid’s supposed to be like the second coming of Josh Gibson, but color me unimpressed until he actually shows he can do it in The Show.
BuserSports.com – Matt Buser (Previous F&F finishes: 2nd, 12th, 2nd)
Q: You have a powerhouse trio of starters – Johan Santana, CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez – and a nice looking closer duo in K-Rod and Jonathan Broxton, all five going in the top nine rounds. The pitching-heavy emphasis early seemingly left you light on top-shelf power, with only Ryan Braun a lock for 30-plus homers . Was the starter/closer off-the-top angle planned, and do you have concerns about competing in the power categories?
A: My plan for roto leagues is to draft the best available player until it makes sense to start thinking more about filling specific positions or addressing specific categories. Where I drafted those pitchers you mentioned was a case of my not being able to pass on the potential return on investment in those spots, not a plan to load up on pitching early. I’m not overly concerned about my squad’s power potential right now, if only because it’s a very long season, but clearly if a trade were to happen I’d be looking to have some thump coming back.
Q: You didn’t take a single middle infielder with a Yahoo! ADP value of higher than 200 (Kazuo Matsui, Placido Polanco, Asdrubel Cabrera, Alexi Casilla, Jason Bartlett). Was holding off on MIs until the later rounds part of the plan going in?
A: It wasn’t the plan going in but obviously worked out that way. As the draft moved along, I didn’t want to take a player that I wouldn’t be happy with just to fill a position. As it turned out, I’m not incredibly disappointed with who I ended up with.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: Brian Roberts is very good, but not pick 25 good. And for as much talent as Justin Upton surely possesses, using pick 86 on him was a bit premature, if only because he would have lasted. For steals, pick any one of a number of pitchers, since the room was so slow to take them off the board.
RotoWire.com – Chris Liss (Previous F&F finishes: 6th, 3rd, 1st, 9th)
Q: We have to talk Alex Rodriguez since many owners are having a hard time determining where he should go in drafts following hip surgery. What was your rationale behind taking him at No. 30?
A: Who would have thought I’d be able to get Albert Pujols and A-Rod on the same team? Right now, it looks like he’ll miss a month, and in a mixed league, that means I get five months of A-Rod plus one month of some marginal starter like Scott Rolen or whoever’s hot in April. That’s like 5½ months of A-Rod, and it makes his slot a steal. He probably should have gone around pick 20 when you do the math.
Q: You raised some eyebrows and were called out a bit in the draft chat room for extending yourself for Justin Upton at pick No. 86. Can you please defend yourself and share what your expectations are for him in ’09?
A: Yeah, I guess I might have been able to wait another round, but I picked second, so my next pick was 111. Would he have been there at No. 111? Maybe, but Mike Salfino, who went before me, took Vernon Wells at No. 84, and I thought: “You know what, in a league like this, I’d rather have Upton than Wells.” Wells could hit 25-30 HR, but Upton can hit 35 easily if he gets 600 at-bats. One stat (hat tip Jeff Erickson) in Steve Moyer’s Bill James’ Handbook is that Upton’s homers last year were the longest on average in the league. Combine that with a hitter-friendly park, expected growth in his second season and that he had an .816 OPS as a 20-year old (almost the same as Wells’), and I think his upside is much greater. The question is – how much does he run (he didn’t last year), and will he be able to hit .280 with all the strikeouts? I don’t know, but in a mixed league, you want players who become monsters, not ones who are merely solid. Whoever wins this league will have four or five of those monsters in addition to their first 2-3 round picks being good. So I tossed out concerns about downside and swung for the fences. Put it this way – I wouldn’t bet that Upton outproduces Wells straight up, but I’d bet Upton against Wells where you only win if one is a top-25 player. And that was my strategy – to go safe for six rounds, then pay the vig for players who could be in the top 25 in next year’s drafts.
It’s funny, because I was very close to going ultra safe and taking Joe Nathan in Round 7, but after I saw Wells go, I had a change of heart and stuck with it. As for being called out, well, it goes with the territory. But when you think about how wrong the consensus is every year in every sport – I mean really look at the end-of-season totals versus the preseason rankings – your conscience about toeing that line evaporates.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: SOD – Alex Rodriguez – remember, none of us are playing for third place. If he comes back healthy in early May as expected, he’ll be well worth it from that position.
ROD – Carlos Marmol – Round 7. He doesn’t even have the closer job yet, and he’s coming off a devastating loss in the WBC which he’ll have to shake off. He pitches for a good team, and he’s got great stuff, but he gives up a lot of fly balls and has periodic control issues, too. There were plenty of closers with locked-down jobs taken far later.
RotoWire.com – Jeff Erickson (Previous F&F finishes: 12th, 8th, 10th)
Q: Looking at your team, you seemed undaunted by an elevated risk of injury. Ervin Santana has a sprained MCL; Chipper Jones has missed 25-plus games five straight seasons; Hideki Matsui has knee issues; Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre are coming off offseason surgery; Chien-Ming Wang missed half of ’08 with a foot injury; And then there’s Kerry Wood … any concerns that you’ll be making good use of those two DL spots on your roster?
A: Yes, there’s plenty of concern. I didn’t really set out to embrace this much risk, but I also tend to take what the draft gives you, and often that means you’ll have a few injury risks. In the case of Utley, Jones, Matsui and Wang, all fell reasonably from their original draft value because of those concerns. Matsui and Wang in particular were cheap, and thus, easily replaced. The fact that we have two DL spots instead of one does encourage a little more risk taking.
That said, I didn’t want to draft Ervin Santana where I got him. I lost my internet connection during the draft for two rounds and while my queue was built up enough for one pick, it wasn’t for both, so I ended up with him in Round 10. I would have waited at least five more rounds before thinking about targeting him.
Q: You took a trip to the farm in Round 19 and Round 20, taking Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson and Toronto’s Travis Snider. What are your expectations for these two, and how long of a leash do you plan to have for each?
A: Hanson will probably begin the season in Richmond, but I think he could very well be up by late May/early June. I think he’s head-and-shoulders the best NL pitching prospect that’s still ROY-eligible but will produce this year. I’ll cop to a certain bias in that I saw him pitch in the Arizona Fall League in November, and he overmatched a lot of the top hitting prospects there. If he falters in Triple-A or isn’t up by June, then I’ll reconsider his roster spot.
I swung for the fences with Snider. I think that he’ll make the opening day roster and play regularly, and while there’s some risk that he’ll struggle initially, I’d rather take a chance in Round 20 on a guy with high upside than fill in with a generic outfield. Even in a 14-team mixed league, there’s going to be some talent on the waiver wire to fill in if Snider doesn’t work out. This applies even more to a standard 10-12-team mixed league, when the replacement value is even higher. Take a few chances with the bottom slots on your roster, especially when it’s at positions that aren’t particularly scarce like outfield and starting pitching. Don’t be afraid to churn those spots, either. If it doesn’t work out, accept it and don’t cling to them as “your guys.” You don’t need to have the patience of a hamster, but it helps to act decisively when you see a guy on the waiver wire that can help you.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: ROD: Carlos Marmol (Rd. 7, Pick 14). In fairness, I’ve come full-circle on Marmol. When I did our original set of projections, Marmol was our top NL closer and in the top 10 closers overall. But even before the WBC, Cubs manager Lou Piniella said that the closer job would be a legitimate job battle between Marmol and Kevin Gregg. Piniella has long favored the veteran when there’s a viable one available, too. Recent events point towards Gregg winning the job. Marmol has a ton of talent and could do well if given the job, but I’d hate to gamble that early on him getting it. Moreover, Marmol is his only current potential closer, though I like his speculative picks on Jose Arredondo and Grant Balfour – one of the two is likely to cash in.
SOD: Wandy Rodriguez (Rd. 16, Pick 10). Rodriguez has positive three-year trends in K/9, K/BB and HR/9 rates, the three areas I look at most for breakout trends. Yes, he’s had injuries both last season and this spring, but there’s a lot of upside here for a pretty low cost.
SNY.tv – Michael Salfino
Q: You took just one closer, Huston Street, and he’s not even guaranteed a job. You plan on being an active vulture on the waiver wire, or are you kicking the saves category to the curb?
A: I was hoping to get another closer or two with fleas, but those guys were gobbled up. Plan B was loading up on middle-tier arms I liked in order to trade one for a more quality closer early in the season. I always cross all pitchers off my list the first seven or eight rounds of drafts because there’s enough divergence of opinion on pitchers that you’ll still get arms you like later; alas the best values then are usually starters.
Q: Some people still have Matt Holliday in the top 20. His Yahoo! ADP has him going in the mid-30s. You fell in between those, taking him at No. 28. What are your expectations for Holliday in his first season removed from the thin air of Colorado?
A: I wanted Crawford at 28 but Liss aced me out by one pick. Holliday was the backup plan because his admittedly moderate speed at least doesn’t cost you in other categories. I don’t just double Holliday’s road stats because most hitters hit better at home – so .300-25-100-100-20 is my target.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: I never like or dislike a player – just the price. And I exclude my players here because we all should think we stole some guys.
ROD: Chris Davis – the power is real, but he could hit .260 overall and/or strike out so much that he has a month and a half with a sub-.200 average. Then what?
SOD: Jermaine Dye – the setup is good for 30-to-40 homers and the power skills are clearly intact.
RotoExperts.com – Doug Anderson
Q: Two of the biggest surprise players of ’08 were Ryan Ludwick and Ricky Nolasco, players you selected with picks 70 and 71, respectively. Given where you selected them, you are apparently a believer in their breakout campaigns. What are your expectations for their ’09 encores?
A: It’s real trendy to automatically label players like these two flukes. At times it is justified, but if you look at the numbers, there are no chinks in their armor. Ludwick had a great first half, then went out and improved in the second half. He hit .290 or better in all but one month, and the power was there all year. His history says the BA could slip a little, but I see nothing that says 2008 was a fluke. Nolasco is the pitching equivalent of Ludwick. He had a breakout first half and then was an elite pitcher after the All-Star break, posting a sub-1.00 WHIP and striking out a batter an inning. He’s a top five starting pitcher if he maintains that success.
Q: William Blake said, “The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom.” I doubt he was talking about the fact that you drafted three players (B.J. Upton, Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn) that stole more than 40 bases last season, not to mention Alfonso Soriano, who is talking about swiping 30 bags this season. What was your rationale for bulking up in the stolen base department?
A: After taking Upton and Soriano in the first two rounds I had a good base of speed, but as the draft moved on I wasn’t able to add much more. Taveras is not a player I’m in love with, but he can single-handedly carry a team in the SB category. After getting him in Round 11, I didn’t have to worry about that category in the rest of the draft. Bourn I got in the reserve rounds, where I try to target players who can make a real difference in a single category. Right now I wouldn’t want Bourn on my active roster, but if he improves his hitting at all, I could possibly deal a player like Taveras or maybe Upton to improve my thin pitching staff.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: I think the biggest reach was Brian McCann in Round 3. I like McCann, but in a single-catcher league position scarcity just isn’t as big a factor as in two-catcher leagues. I think there were players out there that could have made a much bigger impact. I also don’t like Matt Holliday in Round 2. Take away 10 HR and 15 SB and he’s just a decent player. That’s what is going to happen in Oakland.
I didn’t think there were any incredible bargains, but I do think getting Jermaine Dye at the end of Round 9 was a great value. He continually puts up power numbers similar to those put up by guys taken in the early rounds. I also like Josh Johnson in Round 11. He could very easily be a No. 1 type starter.
The Hardball Times – Paul Singman
Q: Unless it’s a coincidence, you seemed to target position depth right off the top, filling your three middle infield spots in the first five rounds. The third base and catcher pools are also seemingly shallow, and you drafted 3B Kevin Youkilis in Round 3 and C Chris Iannetta in Round 8. How important was it for you to tackle depth-thin positions early?
A: Filling the thinner positions is definitely something I focused on doing, but coming in I was not set on taking at least one shortstop and second basemen as early on as I did. Actually, for my first pick I was hoping either Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, or Miguel Cabrera would fall to me at No. 9. Obviously that did not happen, and I selected who I thought was the best player available to me, Jimmy Rollins. In retrospect, the J.J. Hardy selection in Round 5 was probably undeserved (although I do believe he is in for another good year) and I regret not selecting one of the pitchers that were selected immediately after.
Third base is the position I am targeting early this year and in drafts that I miss out on David Wright and Miggy in Round 1, Kevin Youkilis has a way of finding his way onto my team in Round 3. I was surprised to see Nick Markakis still undrafted at this point and it took a lot out of me to pass him over and take Youk. I am happy I did, though, because I was able to fill my OF positions with solid players (Fred Lewis, Adam Lind, Denard Span) and not spend this season waiting on Alex Gordon to breakout, praying for Chipper’s health, or hoping Ryan Zimmerman can bounce back.
Nabbing Iannetta in Round 8 at pick No. 104 was a good value pick, especially when considering the noticeable dropoff in talent after Ryan Doumit and him. If I had known Mike Napoli would fall all the way to Round 19, however, I might have considered waiting to take him then.
Q: You took flyers on two players – Dallas McPherson and Gio Gonzales – that aren’t seeing much love in average mixed league drafts. If the stars align, what do you think the upside ceiling is for each of these players in ’09?
A: McPherson had a tremendous year at Triple-A last year, blasting 42 home runs for the Marlins affiliate. Apparently 42 was not enough, as Double-A first basemen Gaby Sanchez appears to be the front-runner for the vacant first basemen’s job left by Mike Jacobs. Sanchez is no lock, having never played a Triple-A game, and at some point in the season McPherson figures to get in some at bats. A rosy projection for his 2009 season would be a .270 average and 25 home runs with plenty of RBIs. If given playing time, he makes for an interesting platoon player, worthy of a start when facing a weak right-handed pitcher.
Besides a cool name, Gio Gonzalez has other attributes that should pique the interest of fantasy owners. For starters, he will begin the season with a job in the A’s starting rotation that is his to lose, especially now with Justin Duchscherer’s most recent injury. Gonzalez is also a strikeout machine, posting K/9 rates above 9.00 in all of his minor league seasons and a K/9 of 9-flat in his 34 major league innings in 2008. However, during those innings, Gonzalez also struggled with his control and command, walking 25 guys and allowing nine home runs. Pitching in McAfee should curb the home runs and, with some major league experience, hopefully he can lose the butterflies and regain some of his command. If everything works out, I am expecting an ERA slightly above 4.00 with 8-10 wins and 150 strikeouts from him.
There is a far better chance of both of these players falling short of the lofty projections I just tagged them with than actually reaching them, but in the end rounds my goal is to pick for upside and dream big.
Q: Among all drafted players, who do you think were the ROD (reach of the draft) and SOD (steal of the draft)?
A: Looking over the draft results not one pick jumps out at me as a big reach, although Matt Wieters in Round 6 and Justin Upton in Round 7 stand out the most. At the time of both picks there was more proven talent still available at each of the players’ respective positions, but I can understand why these guys would reach for Wieters and Upton …
I will refrain from listing one of my own picks as the steal of the draft, and say Edwin Encarnacion in Round 11 is a great pick.
