Bringin’ the Noise: Long road to stardom
By Brad Evans, Yahoo! Sports Aug 6, 2:38 pm EDT
For Cleveland’s Andy Marte(notes), the third time better be the charm.
A staple on pundit bust lists, the former No. 1 rated product in both the Atlanta and Boston organizations is getting yet another lease on life. After Ryan Garko(notes) was dealt to San Francisco just before last Friday’s trade deadline, the 25-year-old cornerman, who’s seemingly 45, has earned one more chance to prove his name isn’t synonymous with epic floppers Matt Bush, Corey Patterson(notes) and Drew Henson. With merchandise in greater Cleveland V-Mart stores on clearance, staunch Indians supporters hope the newly remodeled A-Mart won’t have shelves stocked with bagels and brightly decorated holed-out pastries this time around.
But have no fear Tribe fans. The Donut King might just be dead.
As virtual players have routinely seen, some post-hype prospects carve a more circuitous path to stardom than others. Ryan Ludwick(notes), Jayson Werth(notes) and Nelson Cruz(notes) are prime examples. The key to their eventual ascension: possessing a premiere pedigree. Marte is built from a similar stock.
Marte’s revitalized swing could prove deep-league profitable down the homestretch.
“Marte has everything teams want in a third baseman, starting with tape-measure power. His stroke has a natural uppercut that generates plenty of loft, and the ball jumps off his bat to all fields. He’s an aggressive hitter who punishes mistakes, and he has the bat speed and aptitude to hit for a solid average. The Braves gave him high marks for his maturity and approach. … Marte’s best chance of cracking Boston’s lineup is to wrest the first-base job from Kevin Youkilis(notes). … Once compared to Miguel Cabrera(notes), he has the tools to become a star.”
For those keeping count, he’s a mere 1,043 hits, 187 homers and 658 RBIs shy of reaching the perceived level of production.
Packaged and shipped from Boston to Cleveland in the Coco Crisp(notes) deal that same winter, Marte finally found a landing spot with an opportunity. Unfortunately, in three separate stints with the Indians over the next three seasons, he floundered miserably totaling a .219 BA with just nine homers and 48 RBIs in 456 at-bats. He also posted unsavory walks (6.4) and strikeout percentages (21.7). Inevitably it seemed he was on a rapid path to future Wal-Mart employment.
But this year at Triple-A Columbus everything finally clicked. Shortening his stroke, he exhibited increased patience, dramatically reducing his strikeout total (16.7 K%). The results were spectacular. In 300 at-bats he hit .327 with 18 homers and 66 RBIs. Clippers skipper Torey Lovullo recently remarked Marte’s diligence and determination were the driving forces behind his resurrection:
“He’s come a long way since being taken off the roster this spring. A lot has happened since he was the No. 1 prospect for the Braves. He could have shut it down this spring. He never did. He attacked the 2009 season to prove that he belonged in the big leagues. … He had a good month of May. At the end of June, I saw a guy that had become consistent. He’d cut down his swing but never backed off his work. What he was doing was legit.”
Now expected to be “in the lineup on a consistent basis” per Eric Wedge, the once cherished future centerpiece might just be the ultimate late-season post-hype sleeper. Logging ample at-bats in the 7-8 spots, he’s 4-for-17 with two RBIs and three runs (2:4 K:BB) in his first five contests. If he can make steady contact and continue to flash a keen eye, it’s not unfathomable he could post similar totals to widely owned corner infielders Casey Blake(notes), Jorge Cantu(notes) and Michael Cuddyer(notes) from this point forward. In other words, the five-percent owned infielder is an acquirable commodity in formats with limited wire resources.
Based on his revamped approach and abundant playing time, Marte may finally live a charmed life.
Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 185 at-bats, .277 BA, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 18 R, 1 SB
Here are this week’s flames, lames and stars of video games:
| Fantasy Flames | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Gordon Beckham(notes) | CHW | 3B, SS | 515 | 82 |
| Market Value: Strong Trade Buy (all leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Outside watering holes decorated with Harold Baines memorabilia on Chicago’s South Side, expectations for Beckham were minimal at the beginning of the season. Even the Noise considered him “middle infield spark in September” material. But the line-drive roping bulldog has greatly exceeded preseason forecasts. Puzzlingly, the still-not-universally-owned rookie has collected a heart-pounding .374-5-30-20-4 line since June 27th, the 10th-best output among hitters per Baseball Monster. Drawing comparisons to and the admiration of Ryan Braun, the 22-year-old has a balanced profile (0.87 GB/FB), low strikeout rate (15.2 K%) and confident demeanor that will likely keep him entrenched in the two spot for the rest of the season. Shipped this week for Joe Nathan(notes), Rich Harden(notes) and Joey Votto(notes) in one-for-one Plus league deals, he can remarkably still be acquired at a reasonable price.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 175 at-bats, .314 BA, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 36 R, 3 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Carlos Guillen(notes) | DET | 1B, 3B, OF | 988 | 36 |
| Market Value: Moderate RBI Buy (12-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Bothered by shoulder inflammation since May, Guillen is currently operating nearly at full strength. Since being activated from the DL on July 24, he’s slapped a respectable 11 hits in 43 at-bats with two homers, eight RBIs and five runs. Jim Leyland has been “very pleased” with the veteran’s initial returns, remarking the ball has “jumped off his bat.” Though his 23.3 strikeout percentage since returning to the lineup is worrisome, batting consistently behind Miguel Cabrera should eventually reap major statistical rewards. At 33, Guillen is likely past his prime, but just two seasons removed from a sparkling 102 RBI campaign, he’s isn’t a slouch. Owners looking for a dependable RBI asset with versatility should acquire the widely available Tiger immediately. He’s still easing his way back, but the potential to make a significant impact in deeper formats certainly exists.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 168 at-bats, .276 BA, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 22 R, 2 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Rajai Davis(notes) | OAK | OF | 574 | 15 |
| Market Value: Strong Speed Buy (14-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Davis may not routinely talk in the third person like a certain Oakland legend, but his fleet feet are definitely Rickey-like. Of course, he’ll likely never eclipse the century mark in swipes in a season or spew hilarious anecdotes in Cooperstown, but finally provided an opportunity the scoring catalyst seems to be running away with the leadoff job. Since July 27, he’s cracked 12 hits in 29 at-bats with 10 RBIs, eight runs and five steals. Generating a double-digit RBI total out of the top spot over a short span for a lackluster offensive team is rather fluky, but his runs and steals numbers are anything but. Used sparingly in his career, he’s swiped 70 bags in 279 games. With a full-time gig, he would be a legitimate 50 SB candidate, especially based on his vastly improved eye (’08 BB%: 3.6, ’09: 9.7). Still sipping pina coladas in a majority of free agent pools, Davis is a guy owners with a need for speed should snatch up pronto.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 178 at-bats, .271 BA, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 26 R, 18 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Ty Wigginton(notes) | BAL | 1B, 3B, MI, OF | 756 | 7 |
| Market Value: Moderate Power Buy (14-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Along with Mark DeRosa(notes), the powdered Wigginton is one of virtual baseball’s definitive Swiss Army knives. Finally supplanting perpetual contradictor Melvin Mora(notes), the super-utility man has thrived with additional playing time at third. Over his past nine contests, he’s racked 10 hits in 31 at-bats with two homers, five RBIs and four runs. A tough hitter to whiff (11.3 K%), the journeyman has always produced above average power totals (career 12.9 HR/FB%). Although he’s logging extensive time in the perceived RBI unfriendly seven spot, the O’s bevy of explosive table-setters definitely enhance his runs-generating upside. Owners seeking additional muscle at MI should get jiggy with Wiggy.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 163 at-bats, .277 BA, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 20 R, 1 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Angel Pagan(notes) | NYM | OF | 761 | 7 |
| Market Value: Moderate Buy (14-team mixed, NL-only) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
His name is a religious paradox, but Carlos Beltran’s(notes) regent has been more heavenly than hellacious. Jerry Manuel’s “stabilizing force” atop the Mets lineup has quietly excelled as an everyday player. Since the break he’s tallied a commendable .309 BA with two homers, 15 RBIs, 14 runs and two steals. Sporadically throughout his four-year career, the switch-hitter has inflicted substantial damage. Ignoring his marginal pop upside, he’s similar to Franklin Gutierrez(notes) in body type and skill set. His superb contact numbers (91.8 CT%), groundball-heavy 1.26 GB/FB ratio and plus wheels suggest he will continue to pay serviceable dividends in BA, runs and occasionally steals. Beltran shagged fly balls Monday, but is progressing “ little by little.” With the former All-Star’s return slated for mid-August, Pagan should be considered a useful short-term stopgap in deep leagues.
Fearless Forecast (next three weeks): 74 at-bats, .289 BA, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 14 R, 4 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Neftali Feliz(notes) | TEX | RP | 263 | 39 |
| Market Value: Strong K Buy (12-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
As the Noise first discussed in February, real fireballers apparently wear pink. Whether facing big league hitters or toting around a pink Dora the Explorer backpack Feliz is undaunted. Noted earlier this week by Grizzly Behrens, the flame-throwers gun-smoking debut lends insight into his mammoth long-term potential. Ranging between 99-101 mph with his heater, he mowed down one A’s hitter after another, punching out four in two innings Monday. Initially, Ron Washington will ease his top prospect into low-leverage situations until he feels comfortable. But given Feliz’s growing confidence throwing his breaking ball and changeup for strikes, it won’t be long before he possibly presses C.J. Wilson(notes) and Frank Francisco(notes) for end-game duties. Next year, he’ll undoubtedly enter the season as a starter, but for now he’s destined to be one of fantasy’s most treasured middle relief strikeout sources. Keep in mind he notched an 8.75 K/9 in 77.1 innings at Oklahoma City prior to his promotion.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 39.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 42 K, 2 W, 5 S | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Brian Matusz(notes) | BAL | SP, RP | 303 | 19 |
| Market Value: Moderate Buy (14-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Matusz’ eye-catching debut had many deep-thinking owners worked up into a passion-filled lather. Based on Dave Trembley’s blood-stirring comments, he too was impressed. In total, the ballyhooed southpaw limited the Tigers to one run over five innings, striking out five, to earn his first career victory. Equipped with a highly rated four-pitch arsenal – 90-94 mph fastball, filthy curve, plus change and average slider – the 22-year-old has ace-caliber stuff, which many scouts and locals say is reminiscent to Mike Mussina’s.(notes) Dominant at Double-A this season, he totaled a 1.57 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.96 K/9 and 2.46 BB/9 in 51.2 innings. As with any young and inexperienced pitcher inconsistencies will be common, especially with the Yankees and Red Sox on the docket. Similar to Mat Latos(notes), his workload could be limited, but even with a handful of starts he should accumulate laudable numbers.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 42.1 IP, 4 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 38 K | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Bud Norris(notes) | HOU | SP | 229 | 14 |
| Market Value: Moderate Buy (14-team mixed, NL-only) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Named after an adult beverage known for it’s “drinkability,” Norris possesses the pedigree to quench any deep-leaguer’s thirst. Radiant in his debut against feared St. Louis, the righty blanked the Cards over seven innings, scattering just two hits while striking out five. Essentially a two-pitch pitcher, the stoutly built rookie leans heavily on his 93-98 mph heater and hard-breaking slider. Based on his 3.83 BB/9 mark at Triple-A Round Rock, he is prone to occasional wildness. But his delicious 8.40 K/9 in the minors this season and fearless poise are impossible to ignore. Due to workload concerns, Norris will likely return to the pen once Roy Oswalt(notes) again takes the ball, possibly early next week. But with matchups against fading Milwaukee and Florida next, he’s a trustworthy near-term option.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 46.2 IP, 3 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 44 K | |||||
| Fantasy Lames | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Manny Ramirez(notes) | LAD | OF | 261 | 99 |
| Market Value: Hold (all leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Amidst the baby boosters, roid list unveiling and bobblehead hysteria, Man-Ram has underperformed. Over his past 18 contests, he’s found open pasture a mere 15 times in 67 at-bats (.224 BA) with three homers and 11 RBIs. Much of Manny’s problem stems from over-aggressiveness. During his slump he’s posted an uncharacteristic 28.7 strikeout percentage. Still, his remaining peripherals are strong. In fact, based on his stellar 23.4 line-drive rate, his recent downswing could be characterized as unlucky. With a homer and three RBIs in Tuesday’s 17-4 destruction of Milwaukee, it appears he’s back on track. Despite the enormous weight from off-the-field distractions, he should still be an upper-crust fantasy contributor from this point forward.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 174 at-bats, .309 BA, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, 0 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Grady Sizemore(notes) | CLE | OF | 156 | 98 |
| Market Value: Moderate Sell (all leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Disgusted feelings over Sizemore’s diminishing returns have rippled through the virtual sports community. Though he claims his soon-to-be-operated-on elbow “feels good,” in terms of production, he’s far from healthy. Over his past 14 games, he’s recorded a .222 BA (14-for-63) with just two homers, nine RBIs, 14 runs and one steal. Sizemore’s sagging value can be blamed mostly on a spike in fly-ball rate (53.1 since July 12) and an absurdly low line-drive percentage (6.1). Due to his physical restraints, it’s possible his swing has become flawed. With four multi-hit games in his past seven, the kinks might already be ironed out, but it’s safe to assume he’ll continue to underwhelm. Attracting several prominent names in one-for-one Plus league deals this week – Curtis Granderson(notes), Javier Vazquez(notes) and Alfonso Soriano(notes) – Sizemore should be shopped before his tainted value is deemed unsalvageable.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 198 at-bats, .254 BA, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 27 R, 6 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Carlos Pena(notes) | TB | 1B | 91 | 96 |
| Market Value: Moderate Power Buy (all leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Taking occasional trips to souvenir city and inflicting unbearable BA pain are Pena’s calling cards. For any well-known Deeritis sufferer, massive downswings are a regular occurrence. Trapped in a suffocating 10-for-72 slide (.139 BA) since July 10, he’s reached the bleachers just three times and driven in nine runs. More embarrassing, he’s compiled a strikeout percentage that makes Chris Davis(notes) look like Ichiro(notes) (40.3). But despite his rancid performance, power-hungry owners with sizable leads in BA should buy on the bear. Inevitably, Pena will have another rampaging homer streak or two. Last year, the lefty masher crushed 13 homers and drove in 47 runs in August/September.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 173 at-bats, .248 BA, 12 HR, 36 RBI, 28 R, 1 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Vernon Wells(notes) | TOR | OF | 164 | 85 |
| Market Value: Strong Sell (all leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Recently traded third baseman Scott Rolen(notes) imparted wisdom and respect on Wells in his stint with the Jays. Fantasy owners hope he also gifted the outfielder his swinging sticks. Currently the 40th-best outfielder in the Y! game, the once-admired hitter has been the epitome of inconsistency. Mired in a 12-for-57 swoon (.210 BA), he’s teed-off just once and driven in four runs since July 9th. He’s also stolen only one base in his past 21 contests. Still maintaining an unusually low line-drive rate (14.8, career 19.1), his batted ball profile and recent accumulation of Ks are reminiscent of his downtrodden ’07. Consider him trade expendable in all formats. This week he enticed Paul Konerko(notes), Vladimir Guerrero(notes) and Jarrod Washburn(notes) in one-for-one Plus league deals.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 186 at-bats, .262 BA, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 27 R, 5 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Colby Rasmus(notes) | STL | OF | 504 | 22 |
| Market Value: Moderate Sell (all non-keeper leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Noticeably thinner due to a persistent stomach ailment, Rasmus has dropped nearly 20 pounds since opening day. Toss in a bruised left heel, and it’s easy to understand why the rookie has struggled so mightily in recent weeks. Over his past 39 at-bats, the lefty stroker has registered just two hits. Because of Tony La Russa’s fondness for veterans and due to the searing play of Rick Ankiel(notes), Rasmus’ grip on regular centerfield duties has loosened. Until his fly-ball happy 0.70 GB/FB and unappealing contact numbers trend in the opposite direction, he will continue to log ample pine time. With the exception of deep keeper leagues, cut him.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 124 at-bats, .245 BA, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 15 R, 2 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Edwin Jackson(notes) | DET | SP | 60 | 97 |
| Market Value: Strong Sell (all leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
At breakfast, lunch and dinner Jackson consumes massive quantities of deep-fried innings. But inching closer to his career IP high, Justin Verlander’s(notes) tag-team partner is about to endure a fantasy coronary. One of the luckiest pitchers this season, Jackson has repeatedly managed to stave off the law of averages. However, his unsettling combination of high innings, a very fortunate .256 BABIP and 3.84 FIP will finally lead to his undoing. The righty’s control advancements have been sensational, but it’s sage to shop his services while the price-tag is hefty. This week, Jackson was traded straight up for Victor Martinez(notes), Nick Markakis(notes) and Francisco Rodriguez(notes) in one-for-one Plus league transactions.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 64.2 IP, 4 W, 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 45 K | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Jonathan Sanchez(notes) | SF | SP | 869 | 59 |
| Market Value: Strong Sell (all leagues) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Mesmerized by his no-no four weeks ago and his recent domination of Houston, many owners have obtusely jumped on the Sanchez wagon. Brainy players should leap off. Although his K/9 has risen slightly form last season, the southpaw’s BB/9 has also climbed. Simply put: pitchers with a 1.88 K/BB and 0.86 GB/FB shouldn’t be trusted during the most critical weeks of the season. After winning on the road for the first time this year, Bruce Bochy believes “Sanchy” is “going to be key” for the Giants’ playoff run. But his general discontinuousness will be maddening for virtual players. The extra Ks aren’t worth the ERA/WHIP risk.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 59 IP, 4 W, 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 60 K | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Jose Contreras(notes) | CHW | SP | 928 | 29 |
| Market Value: Hold (14-team mixed), Moderate Sell (shallow mixed) | |||||
|
Lowdown:
Contreras’ once sterling command has vanished. Hampered by an obscene amount of walks, the crotchety starter has issued at least four free passes in three of his past four starts. Unsurprisingly, his ERA has quickly ballooned from 4.54 to 4.95. After failing to reach the fourth against the Angels on Aug. 4 – his shortest outing of the season – Contreras appeared visibly exhausted. To combat his recent regression, Ozzie Guillen suggested his veteran to “pick up the tempo” and “attack the strike zone with the best stuff you have.” Until he harnesses his splitter, Jose’s sinister side will continue to wreak havoc on fantasy rotations. Still, with upcoming matchups against offensively challenged Cleveland and Oakland, deep leaguers shouldn’t sever the line just yet.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 60 IP, 4 W, 4.24 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 43 K | |||||
CRUZ COUNTER
To remind colleagues Jeff Passan and Mark Pesavento of the $50 donation they’ll be contributing to the Noise’s import beer fund, Nelson Cruz’s long-ball tally will be noted each week. Remember, the original bet was over/under 25 homers.
Caribbean Cruz connections since last week: 1
Season total: 25
(For the record, I’m not kissing Passan if Cruz’s bum ankle forces a push. Passan must have somehow squeezed his munchkin frame into a small crevice in the Coliseum’s corner to discreetly create the injury. Conspiracy!)
Moonshots to the money: 1
Pace: 39
Program note: Due to increased demand for fantasy football coverage, the Noise will be on hiatus for the next few weeks. But don’t worry, we’ll have plenty more Nelson Cruz updates in the Weekly Rundown. Come to me, sweet Boddingtons.
