Bringin’ the Noise: Fallen Angel
By Brad Evans, Yahoo! Sports Jul 23, 5:22 pm EDT
Minus the metaphoric descriptions of Jeremy Schaap, insanely gorgeous French podium girls and paradoxical Santa Claus devil, the Angels’ Ervin Santana(notes), like Lance Armstrong, has endured a grueling tour of sorts this season. Unfortunately, the Dominican import’s expedition has been more farce than force.
Hampered by a sprained elbow and forearm stiffness, the popular early-round selection has experienced an upward climb comparable to the Pyrenees stage of cycling’s main event. Faithful owners pray his second-half comeback story will be Armstrong-esque.
A season ago, Santana was one of virtual baseball’s biggest breakout stories. After compiling a stretch of three mediocre seasons, he exploded for 16 wins, a 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 214 strikeouts. That output ranked 11th among qualifying pitchers and 33rd overall in the Y! game.
Santana’s last two positive outings along with home cooking of Vlad Guerrero’s mom have the Angels starter grinning from ear-to-ear.
Drafted on average at pick 89.1 in purple-clad leagues, the 27-year-old had most managers, pundits included, staunchly believing his marvelous ’08 would spill over into this season. Unfortunately, the injuries marginalized his fastball, turning his once blazing mid-90s heater into pedestrian, Jamie Moyer(notes)-like cheese. After being activated in mid-May, he barely registered in the high-80s. Before heading to the DL for a second time June 12, he totaled just one win and posted a ghastly 7.47 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his first six outings. The once cherished rotation anchor was a shell of his former self.
Though he’s still being outpaced in overall value by perennial roto powerhouse Carlos Silva(notes), the capricious hurler has slowly started to recapture some of his previous form. In his last start at Oakland (July 16), he surrendered just one run on three hits in eight encouraging innings, netting his second victory of the season. Afterwards the righty fully admitted he’s still a work in progress, but stressed he’s starting to “pull everything together.” Pleased by his improved location, skipper Mike Scioscia agreed:
“It proves one thing – that he’s shown in games where he has his command, he’s got plenty of life on his fastball and breaking ball to pitch well. His stuff isn’t quite the same as it was last year, but he has plenty – not just to compete but to win. He still has some things to work on, but tonight he had command and pitched a terrific game … He’s touched 94 [mph] in some of his starts. It’d be an issue if he’s trying to pitch at 85, 86, 87. He has plenty of fastball. It’s a matter of locating and repeating his delivery. You have to keep a tempo in your delivery. At times guys get too slow, at times they get too quick. You have to keep a balance.”
Despite the fact several critical peripherals are trending in the wrong direction (i.e. K/9, BB/9, HR/9), there are a number of underlying stats which point to sunnier days. Per his .352 BABIP, Santana has been a victim of gross misfortune. Unless he’s a real-life “Cooler,” eventually his luck will reverse course. Also, his appalling 23.6 line-drive rate, well above his 19.1 career average, is likely unsustainable. As Scioscia surmised, if he can harness his command, he has plenty of fastball life to be consistently effective. However, he must conquer his Rally Monkey phobia. At home, he’s notched an 11.95 ERA compared to a 3.71 mark away.
With another decent start under his belt (6 IP, W, 5 ER, 7:1 K:BB vs. KC on Tuesday), Santana is clearly headed in the right direction. Because his clearance rate is only a limited-time offer, now is the time to take a chance. This week he was dealt for Felipe Lopez(notes), Martin Prado(notes) and Scott Downs(notes) in one-for-one Plus league swaps.
Compared to last season, Santana’s strikeout totals will continue to disappoint, but based on his stirring two-game run, he may have finally eclipsed the mountain.
Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 82.1 IP, 5 W, 4.01 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 68 K
Here are this week’s flames, lames and stars of video games:
| Fantasy Flames | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Nyjer Morgan(notes) | WAS | OF | 112 | 75 |
| Market Value: Strong Speed Buy (10-team mixed, NL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Washington’s Secretary of Speed unfairly is fantasy’s most glanced over asset. Scorching in July, the Juan Pierre(notes)-clone has batted a blistering .329 with 10 runs and 11 steals. Per Baseball Monster, that’s the seventh-best output among outfielders during that stretch. His sterling contact numbers (84.6) and groundhog-beheading stroke (2.05 GB/FB) point to continued BA success. The catalyst atop a deceivingly potent Nationals lineup, Morgan is essentially a cheaper version of Michael Bourn(notes). On pace for 89 runs and 50 steals, the fleet-footed outfielder is a prime trade target if your team has a need for speed. This week in one-for-one Plus league moves he attracted Casey Blake(notes), Felipe Lopez and Rafael Soriano(notes).
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 258 at-bats, .278 BA, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 48 R, 25 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Jeff Francoeur(notes) | NYM | OF | 481 | 24 |
| Market Value: Moderate Buy (14-team mixed, NL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
In his forgettable career, Frenchy, who was once unrealistically dubbed the next Roy Hobbes by SI, has wielded a “Weinerboy” bat. Though his once prodigious power hasn’t resurfaced, his dismissal from Atlanta has lit a spark underneath the outfielder. Since joining the Mets, he’s collected 12 hits in 37 at-bats (.324 BA) with a homer and seven RBI. Optimistic they can resolve Francoeur’s dish inconsistencies, Jerry Manuel and company have installed a program designed to improve his plate discipline. Based on the Frenchy’s 8.1 strikeout percentage in New York, at least initially, it’s worked. If he can remain patient, he should be a fixture behind David Wright(notes), juggling between the 4-5 spots. Homers will be few and far between, but a healthier BA and appreciable RBI are expected. Give him one more chance.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 251 at-bats, .276 BA, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 31 R, 3 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Seth Smith(notes) | COL | OF | 445 | 12 |
| Market Value: Strong Buy (14-team mixed, NL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Eli Manning’s former backup at Ole Miss has hurled rockets from his bat, not arm, in recent weeks. “Obviously making his mark,” says manager Jim Tracy, the lefty-swinger has earned near everyday playing time in left, batting .302 with two homers, nine RBI and eight runs this month. A low-ball hitting gapper, Smith possesses a very keen eye (14.6 BB%) and above average pop (14.3 HR/FB%). Based on his plus contact profile, excellent line-drive returns (21.7 LD%) and general make-up, he’s an ideal stop-gap in fantasy outfields plagued by injuries. Outside steals, he should yield terrific all-around numbers from this point forward.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 226 at-bats, .298 BA, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 30 R, 2 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Erick Aybar(notes) | LAA | SS | 213 | 26 |
| Market Value: Strong BA Buy (14-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Aybar is the definition of en fuego. Swinging arguably the hottest stick in Fantasyland, the scorching shortstop has rapped an astonishing 25 hits in his past 48 at-bats (.521 BA), raising his overall average 42 points. Over that span he’s also launched two homers, driven in 15 runs, scored 12 times and swiped two bags. The 25-year-old is an efficient line-drive-lacing switch-hitter with modest pop and speed. Because Maicer Izutris and Howie Kendrick(notes) haven’t performed poorly of late, Aybar will remain entrenched in a loose three-man platoon. But as long as he continues to hit, he should net the majority of starts at short and log ample time in the two-hole. Owners in search of a sparkplug at MI should acquire his services immediately.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 211 at-bats, .293 BA, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 32 R, 6 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Lastings Milledge(notes) | PIT | OF | 1240 | 13 |
| Market Value: Moderate Buy (14-team mixed), Strong Buy (NL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Milledge’s work ethic and general attitude aren’t sugary sweet, but the future M&M boy has the talent to pay a savory dividend. On the precipice of returning to The Show, the former elite Mets farmhand has “opened the door a lot quicker” than Buccos GM Neil Huntington had anticipated. Since being acquired in late June, the firebrand has batted .400 with five RBI, five runs and two steals in 35 at-bats with Triple-A Indianapolis. More importantly, he’s tallied a 4:7 K:BB split. With Freddy Sanchez(notes) and Jack Wilson(notes) on the block, Milledge, once recalled, should record most at-bats in the two-spot behind budding star Andrew McCutchen(notes). If his new-found diligence at the dish carries over, he could be a very useful all-around source down the stretch. Steven Pearce, not Milledge, stands to benefit most from Pittsburgh’s recent dealings, but Milledge will eventually get another shot. Deep leaguers should promptly stash him.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 160 at-bats, .277 BA, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 22 R, 6 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| J.A. Happ(notes) | PHI | SP | 115 | 91 |
| Market Value: Strong Sell (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Based on his fateful peripherals and glowing superficial stats, J.A. stands for “Justifiably Askew.” On the surface, Happ has deservedly forced his way into the NL ROY conversation. His unblemished 7-0 record, 2.68 ERA and 1.15 WHIP have propelled the rookie into the SP upper echelon. Since he was inserted into the rotation on May 23rd, he’s totaled the 24th-best line among starters, according to Baseball Monster. But Happ-y days in Philly aren’t here to stay. His very fortunate .242 BABIP, propensity for homers (1.05 HR/9), unsettling 3.31 BB/9 and 87.0 strand rate, are all signs of impending ERA doom. According to his 4.36 FIP, a major correction is on the horizon. Of course, numbers often skew perception. When placed in high-leverage situations Happ has shown marked poise and excellent control. But unless he’s part Superman, it’s unlikely he can stave off the demons of misfortune forever. Sell high.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 74 IP, 6 W, 4.88 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 51 K | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Clay Buchholz(notes) | BOS | SP | 470 | 64 |
| Market Value: Strong Buy (12-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Finally freed from Pawtucket purgatory, the Buck has officially stopped in Boston. Filling in for injured All-Star Tim Wakefield(notes), the former no-no master’s rotation spot probably won’t be short-lived. Brad Penny(notes) has struggled mightily in recent weeks. Due to his downtrodden play, he’ll likely be dealt, possibly to arms-needy Milwaukee, by the deadline. If Buchholz can take advantage of his two-start stint, he should cement his role as a starter for the contending Sox. Peering at his gaudy minor league numbers (99 IP, 2.36 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.09 K/9), owners are understandably giddy about his prospects. However, it’s sage to be realistic. His ability to overpower hitters and draw abundant ground-ball outs are commendable, but his susceptibility to walks/high pitch counts will occasionally lead to uncomfortable situations (i.e. Wednesday vs. Tex – 4 IP, 3 ER, 3:2 K:BB). Absolutely add him. But if he’s spectacular in his next couple starts (vs. Oak, at Bal) consider selling at the hype’s peak.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 67.1 IP, 5 W, 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 59 K | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| David Hernandez(notes) | BAL | SP | 607 | 2 |
| Market Value: Moderate K Buy (14-team mixed, AL-only) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Deep-thinking fantasy freaks might be holding out for Chris Tillman(notes), but Hernandez has the talent to be a rotation cornerstone. An aggressive attacker with a terrific three-pitch arsenal – 92-95 mph fastball, slider, change – he was a notorious whiff-inducer in the minors. Earlier this year at Triple-A Norfolk, he posted a 3.30 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and eye-popping 12.40 K/9 in 57.1 innings. The 24-year-old’s prolific K numbers haven’t appeared at the MLB level yet, and his 0.55 GB/FB and 3.55 BB/9 are worrisome, but he’s proven recently to be serviceable. In his past three outings, he’s tallied a 2.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Eventually the Ks will come around, but until that happens, consider him an upside-heavy rotation caboose in deeper formats.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 64 IP, 4 W, 4.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 49 K | |||||
| Fantasy Lames | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Jason Bay(notes) | BOS | OF | 23 | 98 |
| Market Value: Hold (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Owners who’ve been sittin’ by the dock of this Bay, have definitely wasted time. Mired in a 9-for-53 slide (.170 BA) since July 1, he’s reached the cheap seats just once and driven in three runs over that span. The only category that has saved Bay’s plunging value has surprisingly been steals. After totaling just five swipes over the season’s first three months, he’s notched six in July. The recently announced American citizen blames “timing” issues on the setback, which have caused him to “reach a little bit and do too much.” His 52.8 O-contact percentage (58.9 in ’08) supports his observation. Because he’s shown considerable patience at the plate (15.7 BB%) and with his primary protector David Ortiz(notes) grooving once again, he’ll inevitably bust out in a major way. Remember, last year he compiled a .315 BA in August. Hold steady.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 256 at-bats, .279 BA, 15 HR, 53 RBI, 45 R, 9 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Nate McLouth(notes) | ATL | OF | 92 | 97 |
| Market Value: Moderate Buy (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
McLousy in his past few contests, McLouth has collected an uncomfortable amount of lusterless nickels. Batting .150 since July 10, he’s gone 0-for-5 a disheartening four times. Due to his stellar play earlier this month his hamstring worries in late June are no longer problematic. However, his increasing aggressiveness at the plate is. Since June 1, he’s tallied a 22.2 strikeout percentage, up over four percent from April/May. Part of the problem stems from his dramatic drop-off in outside contact. Last year he notched a 77.1 O-contact percentage. This season it’s just 65.6. The good news: McLouth is still drawing walks, occasionally stealing bases and finding the bleachers at a similar rate as ’08. Maddening boom-and-bust cycles will be the norm, but anticipate handsome dividends in the other 5x5 categories. If you have a hefty lead in BA and need a well-rounded upgrade, pitch an offer. This week he enticed Nyjer Morgan, Fernando Rodney(notes) and Ricky Romero(notes) in one-for-one Plus league moves.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 245 at-bats, .258 BA, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 40 R, 10 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Russell Branyan(notes) | SEA | 1B, 3B | 64 | 94 |
| Market Value: Moderate Sell (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Branyan’s inner Jay Buhner has finally overtaken him. Plagued by lower back stiffness and unmitigated fanning, the lefty masher has come crashing back down to earth. In his past 69 at-bats, he’s registered a mere 12 hits (.174), shaving over 20 points off his BA. Owners who truly believed Branyan, he of the 32.6 strikeout percentage, was going to maintain an average above .280 were living in a world populated by talking unicorns and PBR waterfalls. Because the former role player has never played a full season, he’s having difficulty blasting through the second-half wall. Reading between the lines, Don Wakamatsu is also concerned his prized power-hitter is starting to wear down. Due to his premiere pop, homer/RBI contributions aren’t going to vanish, but it’s safe to say his BA is finally regressing toward the mean. More widespread donuts are in the forecast.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 220 at-bats, .251 BA, 14 HR, 36 RBI, 34 R, 1 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Matt Wieters(notes) | BAL | C | 986 | 84 |
| Market Value: Moderate Sell (all non-keeper leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Though the hilarious MattWietersFacts.com encourages more supportive “Weets,” the over-hyped backstop truly deserves a line like this: “Matt Wieters is so overrated, Pablo Sandoval(notes) in torso-only form possesses more fantasy value.” The ballyhooed prospect’s sluggish adjustment process has been unbearable for most. With a .244 BA, three homers and 10 RBI in 123 at-bats, Wieters has been a monumental disappointment, thus far. When you’re out-Zauned, ridicule is unavoidable. Dave Trembley never expected the rookie to suddenly “come up and be Johnny Bench,” but many in the virtual sports community idiotically did. Look, his future is blindingly bright, but until he becomes more selective (24.4 K%, 7.5 BB%), his reservoir of potential will remain untapped. Pouring over recent trades, many owners amazingly are unfazed by Wieters’ steep learning curve. In one-for-one Plus league moves this week he was dealt for Rich Harden(notes), John Danks(notes), Rafael Soriano and Casey McGehee(notes). Keep stealing from the faithful.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 183 at-bats, .267 BA, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 17 R, 0 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Ryan Doumit(notes) | PIT | C | 934 | 84 |
| Market Value: Strong Buy (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Decorated with chocolate icing and topped with rainbow sprinkles, Doumit has turned into a donut. Slowly regaining his stroke, the recently-activated backstop totaled a mere six hits in his last 32 at-bats (.188 BA), prior to Wednesday’s two-homer explosion. His snail-paced return is understandable. Out since April 19 with a right wrist injury, no one should’ve expected the transition to be smooth. Confident in his swing, Doumit has felt comfortable at the dish. Because of his superb contact history (81.9 CT% ’08), balanced batted ball profile (career 1.25 GB/FB) and regular cleanup spot in the order, he should be depended upon for fruitful returns in BA, homers and RBI. Shoot an offer before his value skyrockets.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 185 at-bats, .279 BA, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 21 R, 1 SB | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Jered Weaver(notes) | LAA | SP | 148 | 98 |
| Market Value: Moderate Buy (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
As expected, Lady Luck has finally terminated all relations with Weaver. Spanked for 18 earned in his past 22 innings (7.36 ERA), the lanky righty’s ERA has ballooned from 2.65 to 3.48. Torched by the long ball, he’s also surrendered a disturbing 1.50 HR/9 since June 20th. Some insiders believe he’s currently experiencing dead arm, but according to Weaver and Mike Scioscia the hurler feels “great.” With his .277 BABIP back close to the league average (.290), it appears the correction phase has reached its plateau. Despite the rough patch, his outstanding 2.74 K/BB and WHIP/W contributions make him a trustworthy top-tiered No. 3 the rest of the way in mixed formats. Because Weaver owners are ripe for the picking, he’s a commodity to acquire while the market is temporarily bearish.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 81 IP, 6 W, 3.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 70 K | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Kevin Millwood(notes) | TEX | SP | 506 | 89 |
| Market Value: Moderate Sell (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
Detailed by Lone Star Ball last week, Millwood’s uneasy strand rate was a precursor for future disaster. Due to his sharp downturn this month, the storm has most certainly arrived. After a magnificent first three months, the Rangers righty has posted an unsightly 7.33 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in his past four turns. A lethal recipe of poor location (3.51 BB/9) and homers (1.17 HR/9) has sent his ERA soaring. More concerning, his .273 BABIP and 4.61 FIP suggest he’s still deep in the woods. Though his next four games are very favorable (at KC, Sea, at Oak, at Cle), expect more turbulence ahead.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 80.1 IP, 5 W, 4.63 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 53 K | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Y!RK | Y!% | |
| Nick Blackburn(notes) | MIN | SP | 668 | 73 |
| Market Value: Hold (all leagues) | |||||
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Lowdown:
One of the true unheralded consistency kings, Blackburn has pitched shockingly well this year. However, in his past two starts, he’s started to unravel. Socked for 11 earned in his past 12 IP, seven in Oakland’s miraculous comeback July 20th, his ERA has jumped from 2.94 to 3.44. With an unglamorous track record, many owners are understandably troubled by Blackburn’s recent performance. If you’re one of those individuals, don’t be. Featuring his fastball more prominently, the contact pitcher has routinely bewildered hitters despite possessing average stuff. Because he issues few free passes and coaxes abundant grounders (1.27 GB/FB), he should continue to craft numerous quality starts down the stretch. Label his two-game slide a minor roadblock.
Fearless Forecast (Rest of season): 77 IP, 5 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 36 K | |||||
CRUZ COUNTER
To remind colleagues Jeff Passan and Mark Pesavento of the $50 donation they’ll be contributing to the Noise’s import beer fund, Nelson Cruz’s(notes) long-ball tally will be noted each week. Remember, the original bet was over/under 25 homers.
Caribbean Cruz connections since last week: 1
Season total: 23
Moonshots to the money: 3 (Don’t fail me now swollen finger!)
Pace: 40
