Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Fantasy Coach Of The Year:
Terry Slotts (I had him last year too, gotta love the starting 5's fantasy consistency)
NBA Coach Of The Year:
Tie: Greg Popovich and Doc Rivers (Pop was tremendous as always, Doc turned his team into legit contenders)
Fantasy Injury Of The Year:
Al Horford (Chose him over Rose or Kobe just because I already had them on my stay away from list, and Horford was playing at a 1st round level before his injury)
Most Annoying (healthy) player to own:
Mr Trick or Treat, Jeff Green. As a Celtics fan all I can say is, C'MON MAN!!
Most Annoying (injured) player to own:
Jrue Holiday (Mainly because of the lack of updates. Kept holding and holding and holding, and then BOOM he's out for the season)
Most Annoying Super Star to own:
1st Half: Lebron
2nd Half: George
No. 1 on Never draft list:
Kobe Bryant (although the other top options for this category are also on my list)
Biggest Nice Surpise:
Blake's FT% increase.... The development of both D. Jordan and Lowry. Kings finally trusting IT2 as true starter.
Biggest Disappointing Surprise:
Derrick Rose (He had his injury concerns, but looked SO good before the season started)
Next Year Watch List:
Rookies. It's the year of the summer for the NBA.
Here are some categories of end of season fantasy awards that I stole from Rotoworld and then put in my 2 cents... Nearly every category had more than 1 legit player I could have picked, so I won't be surprised if people disagree with a lot of this, but these were just my opinions, for the 3 people who are actually still on here and will read this, this time of year lol. But if you do read this, feel free to voice your picks...
Fantasy MVP: Kevin Durant (Not even close)
All Fantasy 1st Team:
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Steph Curry
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Kevin Love
C: Anthony Davis
(I used Curry's SG eligibility to my advantage on this one. Most people had Curry as PG here, and Harden as SG, but I like the CP3/Curry combo better personally).
All Fantasy 2nd Team:
PG: Kyle Lowry (Just beats out Wall for me, mainly because of the 3's)
SG: James Harden (Very well could have been 1st team also)
SF: Lebron James (1st half struggles only reason he's not on 1st team)
PF: Carmelo Anthony (personally I hate him, but can't deny his fantasy relevance)
C: Serge Ibaka (Could have gone with Dirk, but I had Ibaka on a lot of my teams)
Best Waiver Wire pick up:
Jodie Meeks (He ended the season with top 40 value, and unlike the other possibilities (Ariza, T-Jones, IT2 etc) Meeks was the only player who wasn't actually drafted in my competitive leagues. All the other great FA pickups were actually drafted in all my leagues to begin with, mostly in the last round or 2.
Most Improved Player:
Lance Stephenson (I was going to pick Jordan Crawford before the trade)
Honorable mentions to a lot of guys, some of which already had a lot of talent, but still improved a lot:
Fantasy Rookie Of The Year:
Victor Oladipo (MC-W was the popular choice, mainly because of the MPG difference, but in his time on the court, Oladipo was the better overall player.)
Honestly at this point, I have no idea if Noel will be on my serious list or not. He's 100% definitely going on my watch list though. We'll see what Phili does over the summer. If they sign a legit true center and decide to slowly develop Noel I don't think he'll be worth owning. But if they decide to let their young guys develop and Noel gets 30 MPG I would definitely be interested in taking a flier on him. But that all comes down to where other people are drafting him, and how my team looks by the time it comes to have to draft him. He's not a player I would grab a round or 2 early just to ensure I get him though. I did that this year in 2 leagues with Andre Drummond, and that worked out beautifully for me, but Drummond's role was more set in stone than Noel's.
Isaiah Thomas should have the largest or second largest jump in fantasy basketball next season. It depends on how people are going to build their team I guess. My bet is for DeAndre Jordan making a bigger jump but time will tell. Some people are dead against throwing a category like Jordan will for your free throws, but I dont mind going 0-23 for the year in fts so Im looking to get DeAndre as well as Andre Drummond who I think will see the 3rd largest jump in draft status. Heck, I might as well get Dwight as well who stinks up fts as well. I think Dwight should see a bump next fantasy season from the 40-something rank he was this year. Maybe 28-34. Some other guys who should have higher rankings next year, but of course nowhere near the jumps of the first 3 I mentioned, are Gordon Hayward, MCW, Kendall Marshall, PJ Tucker, Victor Oladipo and Kyle Lowry. Im not a fan of Kyrie either. Could it be the Dook/Carolina thang. Naw. I just dont think hes worth a 1st or 2nd pick.
I'd go with LeBron, George, Horford, Leonard and Dirk. That's a solid all around group of front court/wing players that get a little bit of everything. With that core you don't need a stud all-around point guard. Chances are Parker and Teague may still be on the board when it comes time to redraft the rest of your team. None of those other guys would be there for you if you're picking in a later spot.
LeBron, George, Horford are no brainers. I'd also add Leonard because of his mix of current skill, youth and upside. So that leaves Parker, Dirk or Teague. I'd 1st rule out Parker. He's only ranked 138th on the season by Yahoo this year, he sometimes gets rested right at the wrong times in fantasy leagues, and at 32 years old he is entering the twilight of his career, where most players have a slow decline and only some keep up their production levels.
So that leaves either Dirk or Teague. Tough call. Dirk is even older than Parker, and definitely only has a couple years left in the tank, but unlike Parker, he's put up top 10 value on the season, and that is hard to pass up, even if it's only going to be for 1 or 2 more seasons. BUT, for me personally I'd rather take the younger guy in Jeff Teague. He's definitely had his ups and downs, but at least he's giving near top 75 value in return, and is only 26 years old. I think he has a chance to improve his value in the future, and even if it stays the same, I think I'd rather have a top 75 talent for 8 years than a top 10 talent for 1 year. But that's just me, others would argue keeping Dirk til the wheels fall off is the way to go.
But for me I'd take:
And then take the best available PG or C in the re-draft, depending on how you want to build your team.
Sweet on the Dean Dome visit. I live about 90 minutes se of there. Ok, I really havent seen much of Noel so Im probably off, but from what I saw, he doesnt have a back-to-the-basket game, so the reason I think Noel could get more assists is simply because of my perception of some highlights. His points looked to all come from running the lane and putbacks. I doubt he will have such free reign in The NBA. I did see some nifty passing from him, though, which I think could be used when MCW passes in to him as a decoy and then back to MCW for the splash. As for the steals part, I think he could disrupt some stuff that may lead to a fumbled ball or a steal for someone else. The NBA has less careless players, so I dont think the jumping out to pick a pass type thing will much be in Noels future. Are you taking a speculation pick on him? If so, what round?
Big man, first year in the league, likes to block, sloppy offense means he's gonna be racking up fouls and will likely be hesitant to reach for steals all that often. Also, the NBA just has better ball handlers than in college. A big guy like him in the lane in college might force some turnovers, once he's running with the big boys he might not be so intimidating. That's my basic thinking behind why I think he's not gonna be pulling in as many steals as you expect, I hope he proves me wrong though.
Any time. I didn't end up drafting Monroe in any of my leagues, and actually have never owned him, but he was definitely on my watch list this year and even with the 3 bigs in Detroit, I was VERY surprised at his mediocre play. He could definitely have better value next year of he gets traded or something changes in Detroit, but as of this point I'd personally rather have a guy like Jared Sullinger who has more of a chance to improve next season and besides a worse FG% (some of which was caused by his finger injury and hopefully some of which will improve next year with better shot selection) is already pretty close to Monroe statistically.
But like I said, even taking into consideration a possible breakout from V.O. You'd still be better balanced with DJ to compliment CP3 and P.G. There won't be many guys available in your re-draft that do what DJ has done this season. There are few in general, and 99% of them will be kept by the other managers.
You're CRAZY for having Davis higher than LeBron!!!! LOL, juuust kidding. Your list is actually identical to mine, but I also feel like Curry and Paul could just as easily be swapped, and wouldn't think anyone is crazy at all if they drafted Love over Curry or Paul if they prefer to build their team around a Big. I like to try to build my team around high assist PG's who can hit the 3 so I'd take Curry. But I like Davis over Lebron next year, if just barely.
On a side note, I feel like Paul George's somewhat disappointing end to this season will negatively effect his draft stock a little, but wouldn't be surprised if he comes back as hot as ever next season. I don't think he'll drop to the 4th round or anything, but a late 1st/VERY early 2nd round pick instead of a mid 1st round wouldn't surprise me. (I wouldn't let him slip that far, but I bet he might in some leagues).
Any thoughts on who will make the biggest jump up from where they where drafted this year to where they will be drafted next season? Off the top of my head I'd say Isaiah Thomas has to be at or near the top of that list. He was drafted, on average, in the early 12th round this year. But will likely be 1 of the first 10 PGs drafted next season. Besides CP3, Curry, Wall, Westbrook, Lowry and Lillard I don't see anyone who is an OBVIOUS better choice. I'd rather have IT2 than Kyrie! I could understand arguments for guys like Bledsoe, Dragic, Conley or Lawson but I'm sure he'll be at LEAST in their range.
Thanks for the replies Dillon and Steve. I like your analysis too. As far as my guess for his steals go, I just like his length and think that could lead to some outright steals when people try to pass into the paint. I know you can't translate college stats to the pros, but he did average of 2 per game at Kentucky. And I'd have to see him on the court more to judge whether my guess for his assists are low or not. I haven't really seen him as much of a passer, but I guess it depends on what style Phili plays next season. As of right now I don't think they have enough outside shooting threats to play inside out a la Howard in Orlando, and that would be his best bet for assists in my opinion.
I upped his FT% compared to college a little because I feel like he has to improve a LITTLE while taking an entire year off and having coaches help him out at the professional level, but who knows if that will translate or not lol.
Steve- I like the Brandan Wright comparison as a base line, but with Noel having WAY more upside. I'm a HUGE Tar heels fan (as I'm guessing you are from your logo) and actually just got back from a 2 week trip to N.C. where I definitely visited the basketball museum at the Dean Dome. I go every time I go to NC and it's always fun. I honestly think Wright would be a VERY solid NBA center if he was a starter for all 82 games. Personally as a C's fan, I'd like to see him in a Boston uniform.
Also just for a little more info, this is a 16 team h-2-h 9 category league, not a 12 team which makes SOME difference. 80 players will be kept instead of 60.
Thanks Dillon. I end up reading most of your posts on here and most of the time we are in agreement. Sometimes I disagree with you, but at least we both back our opinions up with good insight. In this case, I totally agree with you. Martin just has not proven that he can stay healthy. And it will always be a risk going with him. But in that same sense, it wasn't too long ago that Steph Curry was a HUGE injury risk and nobody trusted him, and now he's put up 2 solid seasons in a row with phenomenal value. Obviously Curry's ceiling was always much higher than Martin's but my point is, you never know how players will come back after injuries.
In this league we HAVE to keep 5. So at this point I think I'll take Korver over Martin. Like you said Martin is good for 3's, scoring and FT%, but so is Korver, and Korver usually has better other stats. I've been trying like hell to package Martin and Korver together for someone different, but people are VERY hesitant to trade in this league this time of year, especially when they'd be trading a solid keeper for 2 players that are both keeper possibilities but not necessarily MUST keep guys. For example, I sent an offer of Korver and Martin for Chandler Parsons. I like Parsons' overall game and his SF/PF eligibility and the fact he has had success even when playing with guys like Harden and Howard. But no luck with that offer.
I'm almost tempted to take a big risk and make an offer to the owner of Nerlens Noel and keep him as my 5th, and then shoot for the best SG/SF in my 1st round of the re-draft. But I notices you've also responded to my post about him, so I'll go check out what your thoughts on him were.
Thanks, and if you read this and have time and feel like it, feel free to give some examples of specific players you would send trade offers to for an upgraded keeper over Korver or Martin. I would be willing to trade Korver, Martin, Jamal Crawford and DJ Augustin in any trade but obviously some aren't keeper worthy
I would say your numbers are very good guesses. I would probably take the steals down to 1 or less per game and expect his FT% to be closer to 55%. His offense is pretty shabby by most accounts. I'd say he projects to put up a healthy JaVale McGee kind of numbers as his ceiling, but, you know, less of a moron. Worst case scenario, he puts up Bismack Biyombo kind of numbers, but he has to have better offense than Bismack, that dude is abysmal at putting the ball in the hoop.
If you don't have to keep 5 I'd pass on both and take best player available in that 5th round. There's a good chance both of these guys would still be available and possibly someone better.
If I have to take one, I'd go with Korver. He's generally undervalued by people,and like you said pulls in consistent threes and contributes enough everywhere else to be more likely to return solid value again next season. Maritn is made of glass, but is good at threes, FT% and decent in points and steals. I've just never been a big fan of Martin and he seems like he's on the decline at this point.If he can't take bumps in the lane to get to the line cause he's wearing out his body, then he won't be much of a commodity for fantasy ball. Korver's playing style is less taxing on his body, so he stands a better chance of staying off the IR list.
I liken him to Brandan Wright but, of course, will put up better numbers because of consistent pt. I predict similar numbers to what you predict except for maybe a bit more assists and less steals. There may be alot of in-out to MCW and Young this next season.
Thanks CWiz, you're always good for some solid insight, much appreciated.
DJ is looking like the most solid choice. I had high hopes for Monroe that I suppose I should re-evaluate my estimation of him. Thanks again for the straight forward perspective here.
I'd immediately take Monroe out of the picture. Just not sold on him. I think he'll have fantasy value, and i think he'll be better than this year, but not as good as the other two is my guess.
So between Oladipo and DJ it gets tougher, but I'd have to go with Jordan for this one. 1st of all , there aren't many other guys in the league who can get you what he gets in FG%, Rebs and Blks. And while Oladipo should have a great season and really improve in this year's numbers, the fact is, there are more PG's out there than double digit rebounding, shot blocking bigs. Especially when you already have CP3 for a PG, and George who can also dish out some assists too.
If this were my team I would have no problem with taking CP3, George and Jordan and then just drafting the best available player in the opening round of your re-draft... If you go with Oladipo then you will have to take a center with your 1st pick no matter what probably, even if it means passing up on some better talent at a different position.
That's just how I look at it.
I know at this point it is all purely guessing, but just for the fun of it, I was wondering what people think Noel is going to be like next season, assuming he starts off and stays healthy.
I honestly think he will be a good, but not elite fantasy player. Good for mainly rebs, blocks and steals. I know they are trying to teach him a go-to post move but I think most of his points are going to come off offensive rebounds and as a last resort if the other offense breaks down. I think he has potential to improve his offensive game, but I'm not expecting 18PPG or anything next season.
My totally and complete guess for him, assuming he gets minutes and is healthy would be in the general range of:
9 PTS, 9 REBS, 1 AST, 1.6 STL and 1.8 BLK
Which would be very useful numbers for either a team punting FT%, or if he keeps his FT attempts down enough to not competely wreck your team.
Anyone else with even bolder predictions? Anyone think he'll flop and avearge 2 pts and 2 rebs with .5 blocks per game? Or anyone think he'll be a walking 20-20 guy, or lead the league with 4 blocks per game!!?
If you had to choose 1 of these 2 players as a keeper, which one would you go with, and why? Martin's current injury doesn't scare me, but his injury history does. And when healthy Korver has been a beast this year, just not sure if he'll be able to keep a top 30 value next season, especially if the Hawks make a decent move this summer?
Going strictly by ranking Korver is the guy, but I'm up in the air.
I actually kept Korver in this league last year as my 5th keeper and everyone laughed at me, but I was VERY happy with his value this season. Great %'s, GREAT 3's and just enough pts,rebs,asts,stls and blks with low TO's to keep his value up.
my other keepers are:
Goran Dragic, Wessley Matthews, Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka... Hoping to draft a PG with my 1st pick in the re-draft.