Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Because he's hurt and its really not clear exactly when he will be back. Shoulder injury, not even cleared to hit yet. That is really not a good sign at all. All they are saying is he should be back "sometime in the first couple months". I don't spend a pick that high on a guy who is injured and could miss at least 1-2 months.
"past 7 years and 553 games played" Simple math would lead me to believe that's 79 games per year. #journeymenmatter
Sorry you had to write all that other mumble jumble that I didn't read.
Other than Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, Carpenter, and Bryant...I don't see anybody that currently has 3B eligibility out performing Turner.
I believe Justin Turner will barely outperform Todd Frazier and Daniel Murphy...and handily outperform Matt Duffy, Jung-ho Kang, Mike Moustakas, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria and everybody else that currently has 3B eligibility.
Building on another post in this thread...Turner's career MLB OPS of .770 is better than that of...
Mike Moustakas - .703
Matt Duffy - .747
Daniel Murphy - .755
...and in line with that of...
Todd Frazier - .784
Turner's lowest OPS of the past two seasons is .861. Longoria's highest OPS of the past two season is .764.
Beltre's OPS dropped below .800 for the first time in several years last year. He is clearly on the decline.
Kang has a higher career MLB OPS than Turner but his time played was really abbreviated.
Hear me now...believe me later.
Yea, power could be an issue... but I'm hoping most of my guys grow into power a bit more as they are all really young. If I can get 60 between Arenado/Sano and then rest of my guys avg around 15-18 I'll be happy.
Guess where I got these numbers?
65 R, 25 HR, 52 RBI, 4 SB, .207 BA
I also believe that he will either walk, strikeout, or hit a homerun in 49.58% of his plate appearances. (three true outcomes)
I like him, and I agree he will be put up good production relative to his draft cost. However, with only 1B and 3B eligibility, I am not sure that he is all that valuable due to his overall production relative to his positional peers. He did play the odd game at 2B and SS last year though - and if he were to gain either one of those eligibilities at some point this year, I would definitely be picking him up without hesitation.
Light in the power area?
All of the guys listed on his roster thus far have the ability to hit 20 HR a season and nearly all of them have already done just that. The average HR/year for those he posted should be 20+.
I don't call a 20 HR average per player listed as "light".
Hope your buddy Sano produces HR like you are thinking he will, or you could be pretty light in the power area overall - but solid across the board.
At the end of the day he is a .284 MLB hitter with a OPS over .861 for the past 235 games played. His MLB OPS over the past 7 years and 553 games played is .770.
That .770 OPS is higher than the likes of...
Adam Eaton - .762
Carlos Gomez - .732
Lorenzo Cain - .754
Anthony Rendon - .768
Josh Harrison - .735
...and similar to...
Charlie Blackmon - .773
Starling Marte - .785
Remember...being willfully ignorant of the overall picture is what caused people to miss out on Mookie Betts (last year) and Charlie Blackmon (over the past two seasons).
It is important to look at the entire body of work and all of the stats and not just the counting stats. Also, common sense enters the picture as you don't land a #3 hitting slot in a MLB lineup without being able to hit (a little)...right, Aubrey Huff?
*in 2008 Justin Turner was on the Baltimore Orioles with Aubrey Huff...who could hit (a little)...I see a similar style and value with Turner*
Conforto, possibly Tomas (who is pretty much guaranteed the job in ARI). I would wait as long as possible if you can see some spring training before being locked in. And FWIW - whoever set up this league should never, ever be in charge of anything.
MIN starting lineup projections from two sources:
Minnesota Twins (from DraftHelp)
STARTERS / BATTING ORDER
CF O Byron Buxton
2B 2 Brian Dozier
1B 1D Joe Mauer
LF D Miguel Sano
3B 3 Trevor Plouffe
RF O Eddie Rosario
DH 1 Byung-Ho Park
C C J.R. Murphy
SS SO Eduardo Escobar
1 CF 25 Byron Buxton R 22.1
2 2B 2 Brian Dozier R 28.7
3 1B 7 Joe Mauer L 32.8
4 RF 22 Miguel Sano R 22.8
5 3B 24 Trevor Plouffe R 29.7
6 LF 20 Eddie Rosario L 24.4
7 DH 52 Byung-ho Park R 29.6
8 C 12 John Ryan Murphy R 24.8
9 SS 5 Eduardo Escobar S 27.1
Stolen base decline is why McCutchen and Trout both dropped in my personal rankings. (not lower than Stanton)
This season I would take Charlie Blackmon before both McCutchen and Trout...and I would most likely take Lorenzo Cain before both McCutchen and Trout...and would probably take Adam Eaton before McCutchen.
Hell...I don't do auction leagues but in an auction draft I would probably pay $1-2 dollars for Eddie Rosario and leave McCutchen and Trout (and I like McCutchen and Trout).
I don't draft pitchers until all my hitting slots are filled.
Each of the past two seasons I have ended up with Max Scherzer on my roster. Last year I had both Scherzer and deGrom. This year I have already landed deGrom in a trade.
Last year I had the following on my staff in July: Scherzer, deGrom, Liriano, T. Ross, Salazar
Pitching can wait.
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