Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
In the drafts I've done so far vs where guys are actually ranked some TEs are falling well below their ADP.
I don't think Cook will ever be the TE we thought he'd be. Not with the Rams anyways.
I like Ebron this year. No more Johnson could mean a lot more food for Ebron.
Other TEs I like that you can grab later, not in any particular order, are Fleener, Ertz, Clay, Watson, Tye, Walford, Rudolph. You're obviously more likely to get some of these guys in the later rounds than others.
David Johnson. Yes I think he'll be good, but I don't see how he's ranked as an early first round pick. Arizona likes to use a committee at running back. The only reason they used him exclusively at the end of the year last year was because everyone else got hurt. I just think they are going to try to use a 3 headed monster with Johnson, Johnson, and Ellington. I would probably take him late in round 2 or early in round 3, but everyone else is in love with him.
Jordan Reed. For an injury prone guy, he's going awfully high in drafts. Not only that, but Cousins had a career year, and I think he comes back down to earth. So even in the rare event that Reed is healthy, he probably isn't going to live up to last year. I just can't see picking him over a guy like Greg Olsen.
Denver Defense. It is very rare that a defense lives up to the hype. Last year, Seattle was the defense everyone drafted way too early. They were 5th in fantasy points among Defenses in Yahoo standard scoring. The Chiefs defense was exactly 1 point behind Denver's defense last year, yet they are the 8th defense off the board according to Yahoo's ADP, and 11th according to Yahoo's rankings. Other sites have them ranked a little higher, but they should at the very least be in the top 5 Defenses taken.
Gronk is definitely worth the 5th overall pick. He is the clear cut top TE and will outscore all other TEs by a sizeable margin. While he might get outscored by somebody who is picked up after him you need to view your draft picks as a position battle. Win at each position and you win your weekly games. Gronk will guarantee you the TE battle each week and also put up enough points to beat out WR1's on many weeks. I would pick him as high as #4 b/c even though Hopkins is a stud he has another new QB and you never know if they will gel together or not. You got it right about the RB position. This year there is going to be a lot of question marks at that position and I wouldn't be surprised if the #1 overall RB at years end is somebody who was picked in the mid rounds. If you want to read more analysis by position check out my blog: http://amateurasfantasyfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/?m=1&_sm_au_=inVL2Qw3JMQ0KjbN
Maybe I'm crazy, but I would consider drafting Gronk as early as 5th overall (Behind Brown/Julio/OBJ/Hopkins). He can put up WR1 numbers.
I would be passing over the likes of Gurley or David Johnson, but I'm skeptical about drafting a running back early this year. Sure, they could be studs, but I like to use my first round pick to pick a player with low risk. I can pick up other RBs later in the draft. What do you guys think, or am I just being stupid?
Absolutely if Romo stays healthy then Dez should be higher. He is still a red zone threat, but I am concerned how his feet hold up. Thanks for reading my blog. I will check yours out as well.
I hadn't heard about Ezekiel Elliott allegations being untrue. I thought that was his response, but not proven. I will research to confirm. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Agholor has been implemented multiple times so whether true or not he clearly is getting negative attention for a reason. AP was removed because he acted based on his own upbringing and had not understood that was wrong. He now knows it was wrong and has, allegedly, been a model citizen ever since. If it ever happens again then he definitely gets a perm ban on my list. As for me being vein...guilty :)
Great blog Doug. I only skimmed the WR value article and I have to agree with every tier you have listed for each player except for Dez. Dez has Romo back and yes he is an injury concern but look at his schedule. It looks a lot like Freeman's last year and I think even if he is limited, will be a big time Red zone tgt more than usual this year. http://fsnicklendime.blogspot.com/
I think Benjamin at 13 is a no brainer. I like Olsen as a 4, but I wouldn't like the idea of keeping 2 players from the same team, so I would pass on Olsen only for that reason. Plenty of depth at QB this year, don't focus on Wilson. I like Gordon at 10, but a little too risky since he's been out for a while. I agree you best bet would also use your 2nd keeper selection for Beckham. Read something similar on DraftingSleepers, ideally you want to keep a player with the best value (keeper value vs. ADP) but in this case keeping Beckham/Benjamin would early on solidify your WRs.
Either should focus on the best value, or best player. You should keep 1) Brown (because he is projected to be the best player in fantasy) 2) Robinson (5th round is a steal considering his ADP is currently in the 2nd round) 3) Langford (Simply because he is a 15, and in most drafts going around 5-6th round) and for your 4th) Marshall (7th round is a steal since in most drafts he goes in the 2nd. Now all of a sudden you are using your 1st, 5th, 7th, and 15th round picks and 3 of the 4 would all normally go in the first 2 rounds, and getting a bargain with Langford. Read something similar on DraftingSleepers, and I agree the value of the keeper should really play a bigger role than just "who is the best player I can keep"
- Reply to Titans fan 3 hours ago
Jeffrey easily. Younger, has easier schedule and stronger armed QB. Also come playoff time in your league CHI plays pitiful DEFs http://fsnicklendime.blogspot.com/
Based solely on statistical probability AJ Green. Hopkins has shown improvement, but not large enough sample size and unproven QB. Same goes for Johnson (Great, but only through 5 games) and Zeke is a rookie. AJ Green is a blanket/safety valve for Dalton and he has had the fantasy numbers year in year out. Also least likely to bust.
1. Boyd - The Bengals lost 98 catches from last season and over 150 targets. Since Eifert is hurt at the moment and Lafell has been a disappointment most seasons I would bet on Boyd to grab a large share of those targets early on while both Eifert and Lafell are nursing injury concerns. He has the best opportunity for immediate impact and can be a weekly flyer WR3
2. Diggs - He is still the clear #1 WR in Minny and with another year under Bridgewater's belt and a desire to not put as much on All Day like in years past I see the Vikings doing more through the air this year than last year. That will give more opportunities to Diggs as he established himself as pretty reliable when they needed it.
3. Thomas - This was close between him and Sharpe but both are rookies (as is Boyd) and rookies need to be viewed as high upside guys to ride the bench. Thomas is in a prolific offense which is what puts him ahead of Sharpe. While neither will be higher than the 3rd option on their respective teams there are more opportunities in NO for Thomas than will be in Tennessee since the Titans will probably be a run dominant team with both Murray and Henry, while Mariota and the passing game keep making progress.
4. Sharpe - Should be solid but will lag behind Walker and Matthews for targets.
5. Dorsett - If anything happens to Hilton then he could break out big time but at the moment he is their #5 passing option behind Hilton, Moncrief, Allen and Gore
6. Coates - I'm not sold that he put it all together yet. He is being beaten in camp by an UDFA. He could easily top this list bc the opportunity is there with Bryant gone and Wheaton having limited upside; however, he hasn't been able to translate it into games. Keep an eye on the 3rd preseason game because it will be the first time he catches passes from Big Ben. If they show to have chemistry then he could move up to 3rd easily on this list and 1st if he starts at all.
Brown of course,
Allen Robinson of course too,
Jeremy Langford of course because round 15,
And for your 4th... I think I'd go with Lacy. In a non-ppr I'd be going after a RB with that 2nd round pick, may as well lock it in with Lacy
1. sharpe- matthews will probably be #1 but sharpe is receiving understandable hype and proved himself in the preseason as realiable, he is very versatile.
2. Diggs- he is the only starter here but he's not #1 on my list because of a run first and bridgewater lead offense.
3. Boyd- we know green is their first and lafell is injured so boyd is basically the only other wr on the roster worth talking about. he could take the starting role at #2 receiver if he performs well in lafells absence
4. Thomas- he is receiving hype we know, but the saints are patient with their receivers, look at how they were with cooks despite all the hype his rookie year and than also with coleman last year. Add in there is no spot open for the taking, snead and cooks are already established
5. Dorsett- He might be speedy but they already have a undersized fast receiver in hilton and they need size to even it out so moncrief isnt going anywhere
6. Coates- many will disagree but he has performed poorly in the preseason by having enough drops to cause him not to get playing time, brown is one of the best and wheaton has proved himself last year in the bryants absence with a 200+ yard receiving day...against seattle. Don't draft coates he is a smoke screen.
Great Question. Don't like Zeke, injury prone and still has a questionable hammy, plus the Cowboys drafted him for the long term and with that O-Line I think they will be prone to throw in Morris or McFadden if they have to even with a bruise. For some reason Beckham is somebody I'm not sold on and it's because he plays for the Giants. The Giants have no clue even if they are going to play or not and that falls on ELI; when he is on they might be a top 5 team in the league but if not then the INTS are going to fly everywhere and OBJ doesn't have the size to act as a safety valve (not sold). Others: Freeman, Peterson, etc. I could go on about the others beside Freeman and Peterson but I would be typing forever. Freeman had a weak schedule last year and word around is Coleman is going to have a defined role, also I'm big on Sanu so I think he will take some tgts away from him but not many. Peterson will get his but I would not be surprised if he gets 50 less carries as it is Teddy's third year in the league and did draft WR in first Rd and probably are looking to increase his role. http://fsnicklendime.blogspot.com/
Neither Zeke or Bell have proven jack. Zeke is a rookie (not a 1st rd pick) and who knows whether Bell can remain clean and injury free the rest of the year. Miller is solid value in the third and AJ Green has been consistent each year. What Green has going for him is the progress Dalton made last year and the fact he is going to get his due in tgts as well as the fact that he and Eifert are a safety valve. http://fsnicklendime.blogspot.com/
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