Commissioner Corner Message Board
- matt k matt k Jul 12, 2016 10:42 PM Flag
correct my other statements. THIS is the dumbest statement ever made on these boards (b/c no matter how you frame it, Betts is NOWHERE near "on pace" to have a higher WAR than Trout).
- matt k matt k Jul 12, 2016 10:38 PM Flag
This dude is such a fool. For whatever reason he despises the Cubs having called Anthony Rizzo "not even a top 150 player" and now talking about how staying away from K. Bryant is a "win."
These are 2 of the dumbest statements ever made on these boards.
I own both Duvall and Stanton. Only have owned Stanton for last 22 games as I bought him super low... Stanton is pretty clearly the more valuable player.....
In my league (no batting average...instead uses OBP and slug%), Stanton is killing it since I got him:
22 games, .376 OBP, .631 Slug %, 18 runs, 7 HR, 18 rbi
Duvall, for comparison only, has also done very well, but that OBP is so #$%$: in 41 games for me, .277 OBP, .537 slug%, 28 runs, 13 HR, 40 RBI
Or you can continue arguing that Mookie Betts is guaranteed to finish with a higher WAR than Trout this year. Interesting I no longer am seeing posts about that...
go back to telling people that Anthony Rizzo isn't even a top 150 player (as you argued only a few short weeks back). Then people will start listening to you.
- matt k matt k Jun 20, 2016 9:08 PM Flag
How you feeling about your "Rizzo isn't even a top 100 player" comment Mr. Strong? Just 4-5 days later and Mr. Rizzo is currently up to a .272/.401/.562 line. His 17 HR are 3 off the MLB lead. His 53 RBI are tied for 4th best in the MLB (w/ Cano) and are tops among 1B.
Oh and since you do reference WAR occasionally---his current WAR (2.5) in 2nd best among 1B in the MLB (behind Goldschmidt at 2.8).
Not to mention, his BABIP (.260) is still well below his career BABIP (.282), suggesting his average may come up even further. He is still walking more often than he strikes out.
But,yeah, Rizzo is terrible---so overrated. Not like he's the best player on the best team with a stacked offense or anything.
May he finally be turning the corner? Just (finally) hit a HR today, and is now sporting a 4 games hit streak with 3 multi-hit games in that stretch.
And possibly more importantly, he hasn't struck out more than once in any game since June 10 (5 k's total his last 26 plate appearances).
It's too early to say he's back, but he's finally showing signs he may end up rewarding those that were able to buy him low.
- matt k matt k Jun 19, 2016 3:31 PM Flag
Not like dropping Span matters. Might as well pick Puig up and hope for the best. Not really expecting a big turnaround by why not. At worse you drop puig later and probably get someone as good as Span anyway off free agency (or get Span again).
- matt k matt k Jun 19, 2016 12:31 AM Flag
yeah I'd go Nola. But there's value in Gio too. And i understand wanting to jump off the Nola train at first sign of disaster for something more proven.
Gio might perform as well or better than Nola ROS...He still K's dudes and has a track record to bank on.
Not sure why either of these dudes are free agents honestly.
- matt k matt k Jun 16, 2016 9:50 PM Flag
What an intellectually impaired dude you are. I think it may be a little more relevant to look at Rizzos 2 previous years along with this year ...
Since the start of 2014 (2 1/2 seasons of recent data):
- Rizzo is hitting .278/.386/.521
- Rizzo has hit 78 HR, which is the 4th most among 1B. Only 1B with more are Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis, and Albert Pujols
And guess how many other 1B:
-In 2014 hit .280 with 30 HR in 2014: only 2--Rizzo and Jose Abreu
-Last year hit for better average AND hit more HR than Rizzo? Only 1--Paul Goldschmidt (Votto with 29 HR)
And Fantasy wise, did I mention that Rizzo is in a way better lineup than either Goldschmidt or Votto? The Cubs will score more runs than all but 1-2 other teams this year. He will almost assuredly finish ahead of Goldy/Votto in Runs and RBI. At worst, he will match them in HR.
So 60% of fantasy categories Rizzo will either match or be ahead of Goldy/Votto this year. Rizzo has impressive #s for the 2 previous years as well. And, to you, Rizzo is a top 150-200 bat while Goldy/Votto are top 15.
Interesting assessment of players you have.
- Reply to Dick Strong Jun 16, 2016 2:48 PMmatt k matt k Jun 16, 2016 5:51 PM Flag
Using the SB example, it would be like using caught stealing as a marker of who is good at stealing bases...the guy who attempts more will obviously have more caught stealing too, but is he really better? There's a reason we use SB% as a better marker--because it credits them when successful. This baserunning stat has no way to do that.
Similarly, Altuve gets more hits and therefore has more opportunities (attempts) at taking the extra bag and may be very good at it. But, as a result, he might get caught taking the extra bag more often.
- Reply to Dick Strong Jun 16, 2016 2:48 PMmatt k matt k Jun 16, 2016 5:47 PM Flag
Yes but it only counts against him when it fails.
What if he successful takes extra bases 100 times, but gets caught 6 times? This stat won't give him credit the 100 times he did, but will say he made outs 6 times.
What is player B successfully takes 2B 20 times,but gets caught 2 times? The stat will say he made outs 2 times and is therefore a much 'better' baserunner.
Would you say player B is the better baserunner?
- matt k matt k Jun 16, 2016 5:44 PM Flag
You can't be serious right?
The advanced stats you so often mention sure paint a different picture where Rizzo was top 15 in all of wRC+, wOBA, and offensive WAR in both 2014 and 2015 (and is sitting in top 20 or so this year despite slow start).
How many other hitters strike out as little as he does (13.6% of time this year), walk as often as he does (13.2% of time this year), and hit 30+ HR a year?
- matt k matt k Jun 16, 2016 5:35 PM Flag
Yes. And by getting 2 1B you miss the top guys at a diff position (2B, 3B, SS etc) where the drop from the 1st-10th best player is far greater.
Again, I didn't say it was a bad strategy, I simply said it was interesting and counter to how most go about drafting.
- matt k matt k Jun 16, 2016 5:33 PM Flag
Yes--Arrieta and Lester do count as 40% of the Cubs SP staff, I also mentioned Hammel and Hendricks so that there is 80% of the staff. Hence, why those names were mentioned.....
- matt k matt k Jun 16, 2016 5:25 PM Flag
That's your fault with your logic of 'pitchers only go 1 in 5 but position players go every day.' The pitchers you are targeting from those teams are great but will probably require pretty hefty trade offers. Might be easier to target people who are better than they have performed or who are pitching great but whose owners probably think will tail off (when in reality they won't).
Regarding Cubs in particular, Arrieta or Lester are probably too expensive to buy. I wouldn't buy Hammel at present-day price as he's likely overachieving (see peripherals aka FIP etc) and his ~2.20 ERA probably will have his owner asking for too much. Hendricks may be decent buy as his price will be relatively lower and his owner may not be buying that he is this good (I think he should maintains #s right around current production level).
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