Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
- matt k matt k 1 hour 33 minutes ago Flag
if this is a trade offer you better not make this deal..
trumbo's good, is in a great lineup and a great ballpark...he might hit 35 hr with 100 rbi. But he's not paul goldschmidt. And Trumbos high k/low bb ways makes him prone for extended slumps--which I imagine he will face in not too distant future.
- matt k matt k 2 hours 28 minutes ago Flag
P.S. that King Felix regression I mentioned earlier todau beginning already? Has given up 7 hits, 6ER in only 2 1/3 IP vs the light hitting twins...
Officially time to buy into Adam Duvall for you 12+ team leaguers. Dude just hit his 10th HR on the year, has 14 HR since arriving in Cincy last year in ~200 at bats.
He had several 30+ HR seasons in the minor leagues.
Guaranteed playing time, a fantastic HR hitting ballpark, and power---don't be surprised when you look up and see 27-30 HR at the end of the year from this guy. Now his batting average may only be .240, but....
Essentially a Jay Bruce lite.
Ok, you're just being an instigator now. I'll just leave this here:
162 game averages for Stanton through 1st 751 MLB games: .267/.360/.543 with 42 HR.
Yes, he may not play 162 games any year...but those are absolutely crazy 162 game averages for a 26 year old with that many games under his belt.
In a vacuum, yes I'd take Bradley. But his roster sure isn't desperate for OFers....regardless of your thoughts, when Chris Davis is a backup OFer for you, you're doing pretty good.
His pitching is all overachievers whose peripherals suggest serious regression..Samardzija interestingly has the best peripherals of them all.
Oh no! Mike Stanton and Trumbo are my 2nd and 3rd OFers!! We only have 3 OF spots and it's so bad that my only backup OFer is Chris Davis! I'm screwed! Lololololol.
I'm way more worried about how my pitching staff fares ROS after losing Samardziha than I am worried about OF depth with this roster.
Sorry forgot the link for you: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/giancarlo-stanton-300-million-contract-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds-111414
Given how much you quote fangraphs, I have no idea how you can say it was a bad contract at the time it was signed. Fangraphs sure supported it....
Another articles (fangraphs writer Jeff Sullivan on another site), justifying the contract at the time it was signed. "And there's your real story, should a contract materialize. Stanton's worth $30 million a year, for as long as 10 or more years. That's the unsurprising part. The Marlins, then, would have to be thinking about acting like the rest of the major leagues. That's the surprising part."
The $325 million contract was completely reasonable at the time it was signed. It's crazy you have repeatedly trashed it as often as you have.
since when does yahoo veto trades?!
Trade 1 (after dropping wacha and gausman) is dozier, lamaheiu and tomas for ortiz and zobrist. Not even, but without more info I can't say collusion.
Lopsides trades aren't collusion or vetoable. Collusion has more than just being lopsided (i.e. a last place team trading his best players for scrubs to the 1st place team since they are friends etc).
Dont veto lopsided #$%$ trades.
P.S. More Fangraphs support of Stanton. From today's chat..
Joseph: Concerns about stanton???
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty low at the moment
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe there is something I’m missing, but Stanton generates most of his offense through a small amount of swings. So there’s variability in there when he connects or mis-hits
Dude still has enormous value. Both in terms of real-life value (trade for him would net incredibly haul) and fantasy value (If I owned him, I'd except nothing less than true ace SP or similar value).
No need to copy/paste entire articles. Isn't there some rule against that here?
Sorry, I only was able to see these lines in the article. Do these lines gives the gist of what your arguments are?
1) "...in thinking that everything is going to be fine once that corrects itself. And that's mostly true..."
2) "...as long as you have elite power, which Stanton obviously has..."
3) "...no one is suggesting Stanton is heading for the precipitous cliff..."
I'm not arguing there aren't concerning trends. But at this point, that's all they are--trends. Seasons are long, small sample sizes don't give good data, he's had similarly poor stretches in the past, he's still as likely as anyone in the game to reach 40-50HR.
Now I may not value him as he was on draft day. But to suggest he's all of a sudden one of the worst players in the game...terrible man.
P.S.---"batting lineup position and contact skills get you RBI." This is true----and both those things are 2 things (combined with HR) that Edwin Encarnacion has always had going in his favor. Elite contact skills and a great position in a great lineup.
Im more in line with these advanced analytics than you ever will be buddy.....Edwin hit 39 HR last year. He hit 34 the year before (in 128 games). He hit 36 the year before. He hit 41 the year before.....sure seems like some star-level production I'd say. In what planet is 3-year production averages (2013-2015) of .272/.366/.546 with 35+ HR *NOT* star level performances....How many players in the game have outperformed those #'s last 3 years?!
His K% is concerning. His age in concerning. But is there any reason not to expect a .260 BA with another 20-25 HR this year?
By the way, as was highlighted in your esteemed fangraph's writer Jeff Sullivan's chat today, Edwin Encarnacion had a VERY similar stretch last year...he believes edwin's current K/BB rates are "elements of noise." Through this date last year he had a K% of 21% (not much better than his 22.7% so far this year). He then managed to have a 13% K rate the rest of the way....Jeff Sullivan himself says "ID TRUST HIM" regarding fantasy potential.
And again, this is why you'd be fleeced in trades if I were with you.
And again, the way you completely disregard a 26 year old with the track record of Stanton simply due to 1 slump is amazing to me....
By the way, you mentioned injury...wouldn't you actually be even less concerned about Stanton if his slump was due to injury?!
I obviously read that article...point is "reading fangraphs 2-3x week" isn't going to convince anyone that this deal is "bradley by a mile." There are divergent opinions on just how real he is. Is he top10 MLB player this point forward (as you think) or is he a .280 20-25 HR 10 SB guy (as I think).
Fangraphs authors--including Mr. Jeff Sullivan who who wrote that article you linked---do NOT believe that he has "upper level raw strength." In fact, in the very article you linked he says, "...one of the things Statcast has demonstrated is Bradley DOESN'T have upper-level strength." This is due to exit velocity data only being middle of the pack (60ish of 184)...plus suprisingly few #'s of balls hit over 105 mph and a top exit velocity under 110 mph (doesn't seem to suggest elite power).
Dude is on pace for 40 HR this year. Dude has 3 30+ HR seasons already. Dude hit 27 HR in 74 games (279 AB) just LAST YEAR. Dude is career .267/.360/.543....go ahead, take a peak at how many hitters have a slugging over .540 for their careers, you wont find many guys AT ALL.
He might be overrated fantasy wise, but come on...dude is still Elite.
Regarding his contract---do you have ANY DOUBT he would have garnered at least that on the open market? DUDE IS 26 YEARS OLD.
Maybe because HR is a fantasy category. Maybe because HR get you runs and RBI.
I'd keep Encarnacion/odor, so yes I agree....but Mr. #$%$ Strong seems to suggest that he'd keep odor over BOTH stanton and encarnacion..LOL. Expect improvement in average from encarnacion coming--something close to what he was last year (.260ish).
Oh yeah, and even if it doesn't come---he's on pace for 30 HR and 116 RBI. Yes that's valuable.
I wish *so badly* I was in a league with Mr. #$%$ Strong so I could fleece him out of all his stars (dudes like Stanton/encarnacion etc) for pennies on the dollar.
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