Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 31, 2016 4:00 PM Flag
Rosario does not walk. He posted 15 BB, 118 K's last year. His OBP will be in the upper .200's/low .300's as a result. He will thereby rely on a high BABIP for his value, and BABIP is mercurial. I therefore posit that you missed the point of my post entirely.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 31, 2016 1:42 PM Flag
But my point is that for most leagues - featuring BA and not OBP - managers basically ignore OBP. That is an easy flaw to capitalize on.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 31, 2016 1:41 PM Flag
Line-up position and OBP play more a role in runs than does speed. The batters who scored at least 100 runs last year included Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, Jose Bautista, Matt Carpenter and Chris Davis. I don't think speed was the reason for their run production.
Other players who scored a ton of runs (due to OBP and line-up position) include Arrenado, Votto, Hosmer, Encarnacion, Martinez, Cruz and Abreu. In point of fact, among the top 30 last year in runs scored, 12 such guys combined to steal 55 bases (less than 5 per player). Those are not speed guys, and they scored a ton of runs.
You want to know the best predictor of runs? OBP. Among the top 30 run scoring players in 2015, just 2 (Cespedes and Dozier) had an OBP below .342. So if you want runs, look at OBP, not speed.
When I post hitter's lines, I include OBP. I do so not because a league includes OBP as a category (though both of my leagues do just that), but because OBP matters, and matters a lot. Here is why:
1. Getting on base means more R's. Undeniable.
2. Getting on base means more chances for SB. Undeniable.
3. Getting on base means more likely to stay in line-up, even when slumping. Undeniable.
4. Getting on base shows a better hitting approach. Undeniable.
5. Getting on base = better hitting approach = better hitter. Undeniable.
Reviewing the best hitters in terms of OBP for 2015 (minimum 250 plate appearances), the top players are also the best hitters in the game - Harper, Votto, Goldschmidt, etc. However, in scanning some of the others, bargains are to be found - guys like Brandon Belt, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, and Joe Panik, as well as well-considered but still underrated players like David Peralta (.371 OBP) and Miguel Sano (.385 OBP as a rookie).
OBP ... use it, because others are not savvy enough to do so.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 31, 2016 12:51 PM Flag
Accept, accept, accept!!!
Odirizzi is very underrated, and Donaldson is a monster in a stacked line-up and a hitter's park.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 31, 2016 12:46 PM Flag
I presume you will put Davis at the CI spot, and Rendon at the MI spot. That improves the offense quite a bit. Also, Billy Hamilton is worthless. Bench his #$%$ or trade him. Hamilton may steal 3 bases in a week ... or none. What is #$%$ured is that he will hit 0 HR"s, drive in maybe 1 run, score perhaps 2 R's and hit .210. P#$%$.
As for your pitching - strong top 2 but I am not a fan of Heaney or Iwakuma. Deal Hamilton and one of your four closers for a #4 SPer (somebody like Verlander, Matz or Odirizzi). In H2H, starting pitching is a premium.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 29, 2016 5:58 PM Flag
I think Murphy is going to mash this season. Murph always hit a ton better outside of Citi Field. He may be better than you expect.
That said, I agree that you are going to find a solid SP'er at some point in late April or early May on the FA wire - it happens every year. Arrietta was on the FA wire as of May 1, 2014, right? Syndergaard last year, Salazar last year, and on and on. So if you are unwilling to stick with Murphy and think have to give up a good SP'er to get Odor, do it. (Odor looks to be a 5-category guy, by the way ... how many pitchers are 5-category pitchers?)
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 29, 2016 5:33 PM Flag
I think he was avoiding putting players on his list that I had on mine.
And that is a pretty strong list, DS. I darn well hope so - I have Pollock, Peralta, Semien, Belt, Realmuto, Vizcaino, J. Ross, and McGee on at least 1 team.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 29, 2016 3:11 PM Flag
Corbin. Dude had a 3.35 FIP last year, and now in his 2nd season after TJ surgery looks to me like an undervalued, valuable SPer who is likely to give 180 quality IP on a decent team.
The topic is self-explanatory. This post lists players whose draft or auction value do not reflect their likely 2016 production. My list:
1. Mike Moustakas. Dude will produce as well as Seager, Longoria and Franco (75 R, 20+ HR, 80 RBI, .275 BA, .345 OBP) but 3-4 rounds later.
2. Jake Odirizzi. You want top-end WHIP, ERA and K's? Draft Carrasco, or Hernandez, or Gray in the first 8 rounds - or draft Odirizzi in the 12th.
3. A.J. Ramos. Familia-like production, only 5 rounds later.
4. DJ LeMahieu. So a MI with 85 R's, 20+ SB, .290 BA, .360 OBP? How about LeMahieu in the 18th round.
5. Gerardo Parra. 5-category OF'ers go in the first 10 rounds, don't they? Maybe not - Parra will play every day in Colorado, best hitting park on the planet, and give 80 R's, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 15 SB, .300 BA, .340 OBP. Yet he is ranked below guys like Choo, Calhoun, Revere, and Gordon.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 29, 2016 2:41 PM Flag
In leagues with 2 Util spots, I always try and land 3 1st baseman. Why? Because they are the best hitters for HR, RBI, and generally give positive R and BA/OBP. Having Fielder, Votto and Freeman means a likely combined 75 HR's, 250 R's, 250 RBI's, .300 BA, .400 OBP. Seriously good production.
- Reply to noah w Mar 29, 2016 12:00 AMTK from LA TK from LA Mar 29, 2016 1:29 PM Flag
He will be. The Astros have asked Singleton to change his name to "Strikeoutton."
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 28, 2016 6:10 PM Flag
Not sure why you punted saves in roto ... just 11 teams, with no CI or MI, and you have Rodon and Kazmir in the rotation? Your Util position is ... less than ideal. Your SB total is going to drag you down as well. I am guessing you drafted 11th/12th and went Rizzo/Correa?
In roto, you cannot just punt on SB, and saves, and W's, Spending that many picks on holds was a mistake. You can find very good holds guys on the FA wire, 7 days per week. Dump Romo for a guy on the FA wire who might actually save some games ... later this season, try and make a deal to improve your SB, W, saves totals. Yes, that means working a trade involving a top-tier guy.
Me? I wait until mid-May and deal Rizzo for a top-flight SP'er and top-end closer. Whoever you make the offer to will take the deal. Wait a couple of weeks and then put Reed at 1B after he is promoted. Kid is a big lefty in a great hitter's park and will rake.
Hey, you need to do something. If you pull 1-2 points on saves, and W's, and SB's, you are looking at trying to make up 30 points. Not going to happen without you doing something.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 28, 2016 5:58 PM Flag
I am just a tick worried about Pollock's elbow injury. Even so, and presuming Pollock does not miss much time, the rule in fantasy trades is, "Whoever gets the best player wins." Pollock is the best player in the deal, by far. He is hitting in the middle of a packed D'Backs line-up, with Goldschmidt and Peralta driving him in. He is likely to post 100 R's, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 35 SB, .300 average. In other words, upper-tier in every category and elite in two. Pollock side wins.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 28, 2016 11:14 AM Flag
Blackmun. You keep him, you get a 5-category guy and a 4th round pick like Adrian Gonzalez. Blackmun + Gonzalez is a LOT better than Davis + a 7th round guy like Kole Calhoun. Heck, if you keep Blackmun, why not just draft Davis in the 3rd round (where he generally goes)?
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 25, 2016 6:21 PM Flag
McCutchen ran a lot less last year due to significant pain in his left knee. Cutch recently gave an interview published in the PPG, and noted that his knee pain was pretty bad the first five weeks, robbed him of much of his power, and limited his base stealing. This year? No injury.
When a guy does not steal due to injury, then the injury goes away, and he moves to the #2 spot in the line-up, expect more SB's. Look, Pollock is awesome - I have him in an NL-only auction keeper league because I picked him up as a FA in 2013. But as between Pollock and Cutch, one has hit as many as 31 HR's in a season, has 5 straight 20+ HR seasons, has hit .327, .317, .314 and .292 the past four seasons, and stole 18 bags in the season before his knee injury. His name is McCutchen, and he is set for a monster year ... where I think Pollock is no worse than the 5th best OF'er.
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 25, 2016 6:10 PM Flag
I rank them this way:
Strickland is the best of the lot and will give K's, ERA, WHIP and a couple of wins. Grilli - the same, along with some garbage-time saves. Fernando Rodney is an implosion waiting to happen. If I had a nickel for every time he has kept the closer's role without a major meltdown during the season, I'd have exactly one nickel. Benoit - will give K's, ERA, WHIP and a couple of wins, and some garbage-time saves.
The dumpster fire in Philly's bullpen makes it seem like an option to pick up either Bailey or Hernandez, except for one thing - they are both terrible. I get that saves are brutal to come by, particularly in roto, but don't poop on your WHIP and ERA by picking up garbage like Bailey or Hernandez. Let that play out, and wait for somebody remotely good to take over the closer's role.
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