Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
- TK from LA TK from LA Mar 4, 2014 11:26 PM Flag
I think Kipnis is the better value. Pedroia is going for $12 to $14, while Kipnis is few bucks more while giving more HR's and more SB. In fantasy baseball, the counting stats rule - batting averages rise, fall, etc. based upon BABIP. HR's and SB roll on and on.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 23, 2014 3:58 PM Flag
I don't like spending early selections, even in dynasty draft, on A#$%$. That park just kills power numbers. The choice is between Baez and Correa, IMO, though Russell is by far the closest to the majors.
As between Baez and Correa, one seems likely to stick at SS, and has a great BB v. K ratio, and will be a 5-category contributor in part due to the superior home park for R-handed hitters. (Houston is a very favorable park for R-handers.) Baez' K rate and low walk rate are a concern. Correa had a lower K rate in high A at age 18 than did Baez at age 20.
Correa's floor seems to be a 18 HR, .280 average, .370 OBP, 20 SB guy. Baez is likely going to give more HR's but if he is moved to 3rd base, his value is just not as high as Correa's, IMO.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 23, 2014 3:46 PM Flag
Well, with 15 categories, at least one of those has to be "body mass," so Puig gets an uptick with being fat. Another might be "donuts consumed," another advantage for Puig, no?
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 23, 2014 3:40 PM Flag
Cutch is basically guaranteed to give 90 R, 25 SB, 20 HR, 90 RBI, .390 OBP and with far fewer K's than Goldy. Goldy is superb but Cutch is simply elite.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 23, 2014 3:30 PM Flag
How is he going to steal 100 bases if he gets on base maybe 50 times in 200 plate appearances before being benched?
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 19, 2014 11:30 AM Flag
In auction keeper leagues, the issue is 100% value. It makes more sense to keep a good player for $5 than a great player for $35, since you have the good player and $30 to spend - giving you a good player and a VERY good player.
I keep Wacha. His production is going to be solid. He has a filthy change, deals in the 90's, has a good Cardinals team behind him, and a good pen. You then have 5 very good players at a great price, and still hve $219 to spend.
After designating those 5 keepers, you have the budget to get Kershaw and Jones. Seriously, mock it and see. Kershaw for $48 and Jones for something like $30. You now have 7 very, VERY good players and still have $141 to spend.
If you keep Kershaw, your remaining budget is down to $180. If you want to get Wacha, be prepared to spend $17 for him. Down to $153. Spend the same $30 on Jones, and you are down to $123 - $18 less than the alternative.
- Reply to Bodacious Feb 15, 2014 2:40 PMTK from LA TK from LA Feb 16, 2014 2:58 PM Flag
Truth. And hit line drives. And play defense. Hamilton can run very fast. So why isn't Usain Bolt in the major leagues?
- Reply to Bodacious Feb 15, 2014 2:40 PMTK from LA TK from LA Feb 16, 2014 1:00 PM Flag
The only way Billy Hamilton is worth a top 75 pick is if your league has categories for weak grounders to 2nd base, sucking, lack of power, weak flares to left field, and another for sucking.
The guy cannot hit. Also, he is not a legitimate center fielder. That position requires premium defense. The best teams in the NL Central - St. Louis and Pittsburgh - have Bourjos and McCutchen in CF.
Hamilton takes routes to fly balls that would make give a gnat motion sickness. Defense has zero value in fantasy ...
Except for premium defensive positions like C, SS and CF, where poor defense puts you on the bench.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 14, 2014 12:11 AM Flag
^^ This. Just 3 keepers - you keep 3 premium bats. The only exception is an auction league where you obtained a pitcher for $1 and keep at the purchase price. Otherwise, 5 keepers or less - all hitting. 6 to 8, keep1 or 2 pitchers. 10 keepers - keep 2 or 3 premium arms.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 13, 2014 1:15 AM Flag
Morton has a better FIP (3.60 to 4.03), much better xFIP (3.69 to 4.53), Morton throws harder (93 mph to 91 mph), Morton has a better defense behind him, Morton has a better team behind him, Morton has a vastly superior bullpen behind him, and Morton's post-All Star break numbers maul McAlister's numbers (Morton 3.26 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 17.6% K rate, a relatively high .316 BABIP vs. McAlister 3.86 FIP despite a 19% K rate and low BABIP of .296).
Fangraphs, my friend, Fangraphs ... and more accurate and predictive statistics.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 9, 2014 3:15 AM Flag
I like your return since Cabrera is such an amazingly good player, but those who think you got a steal are not examining the data. First, Encarnacion is a tremendous fantasy player. He is a lock to give 35 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R based on the last 2 years.
Further, Encarnacion batted .272 while posting a very low (unlucky) BABIP of just .247. He is going to add 30 points to that BABIP, and hit perhaps .290.
Finally, Santana qualifies at C, but will play 1B and 3B as well, and thereby play in 145 games. He gives elite return in the counting stats (HR, RBI, R). His BA has gone from .239 to .252 to .268. He is 28 years old this season, and primed for 80 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, .275 BA.
Encarnacion and Santana combine for something like 60 HR's, 180 R, 180 RBI, 12 SB, .280 to .285 BA.
Miggy gives 35 HR's, 100 R, 115 RBI, .330 BA so the new C needs to provide 25 HR, 80 R 65 RBI to make up the difference. So I like the deal, but you gave up to very good and productive players.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 8, 2014 7:43 PM Flag
The only problem with taking a spot in a mock and then using Auto-Pick is that you slow down the draft for everybody else. Why not join the mock and just make the picks?? It's a freaking fake draft of a fake team.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 7, 2014 7:26 PM Flag
Anybody suggesting you pass on McCutchen, when you have the 12th pick in the draft, is nuts. With that pick you will wind up with somebody like Beltre ... who would you rather have with your first round pick, McCutchen or Beltre?
Beltre is worth a #12 pick, so using your 3rd round pick gives a lot of value. McCutchen with the 12th pick (equivalent) and Beltre for the 25th pick is very good value.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 6, 2014 4:44 PM Flag
Roto? H2H? How many teams - 12? More?
The number of teams is crucial to answering. In 30-team dynasty leagues, quantity has massive value. In 12 team leagues, not nearly as much. In the former, just finding players who actually see the field is a challenge. In the latter, quality matters more than quantity.
I suspect that the answer to the proposed deal (the 2nd one) depends on how much you value Salazar. Here is why I say that.
I understand why you like Desmond, but Zobrist is a solid replacement. The guy has metronome-like consistency - 80 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, decent average, double-digit SB. What's not to like (apart from his age, I guess)?
Desmond had a BABIP of .336 last year. Tough to repeat that, so his average is more likely to be in the .270 area, rather than .280 or above.
The 2nd offer ... Zobrist takes over SS and is your guy for at least 2 seasons. Yelich is a potential 5-category guy for the next 10 years. Great value. Desmond Jennings is a solid, multi-category contributor.
But if you think Salazar is potentially dominant, a miniaturized Felix, then you have to say no.
I just don't feel comfortable banking on power-armed R-handers who are 6'0" and 185 lbs. Salazar reached a career high by dealing 144 IP last year. He is already 24. He is not Felix, dealing 190 IP with great results in the majors at age 21.
The history for 6'0" right-handed power arms is not good ... the majority wind up in the pen. Salazar's stuff is filthy, but his frame makes me wonder. Compare him to Felix, or Cole, or Darvish, or Wainwright, or Scherzer, or Verlander. You get the point.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 6, 2014 4:21 PM Flag
You can rack up K's per 9, along with WHIP, ERA and some W's, just by adding FA's like Clippard, Melancon, Gregerson, and on and on. Don't burn a top-13 pick on a SP'er because a good pitcher can give you 5 categories - a very good hitter can give you 6, and FA pitchers can give you a lot of value.
Remember: In real baseball, pitching is more important than hitting; in fantasy baseball, hitting is more important and more difficult to find than pitching.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 6, 2014 4:15 PM Flag
How many teams? 12? 16? Roto? H2H?
I like Lucroy, Hosmer, Gyorko, Beltre, A. Jones [but OBP leagues, his value is lower - he is a 5-category guy, not 6 category], Choo [legit 6-category guy], Gordon [5 categories], and De Aza [5-categories]. Your offense is okay ... Jones your first pick? You must have selected 11 or 12.
Beltre in the 2nd round? Why not Tulo or CarGo? Tulo 5-categories, CarGo six. Better value at that spot, IMO.
Your pitching needs help. If you are in Roto, 12 teams, you also must - MUST - have at least 3 closers. 12 teams in league, 30 teams real baseball, the average closers per team is 2.5. If you are above that, you get points. If below, you spend your roster moves trying to add a closer.
You have one top-tier SP'er (Sanchez) and he is at the bottom of the top tier. Beachy is a good pick. But other teams have a Lee and a Darvish and a Hamels and a Kershaw, and a Verlander. They are going to rack up the K's, WHIP, ERA in Roto.
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 6, 2014 4:05 PM Flag
Why are some posters saying that Desmond should be one of your four keepers? He is not on this list ... do you get to "keep" other guy's players? If so, then this is easy: Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt and McCutchen.
If you are talking about players from your actual list: Bautista, Upton, Beltre and Holliday. Upton is the only 5-category guy in your group.
The only SP'ers worthy of protecting in the first 4 rounds are Kershaw, Darvish, Wainwright, Strasburg and Hernandez. Jose Fernandez is just outside that group, as are Verlander and Sale.
Since none of those names is on the list, none deserve to be protected. You can get Latos in the 7th or 8th round, for example - how is he worth a 4th round pick to protect?
- TK from LA TK from LA Feb 5, 2014 4:20 PM Flag
I obtained Trout in a trade in a keeper league and paid a ton for him. Team was very deep, and I could not protect my talent, so I sought to move quantity for quality. Dealt Cliff Lee, Jose Bautista and Carlos Gomez to get Trout, in a Roto league with the usual IP limits and featuring OBP rather than BA. It took that much to get him.