Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 1, 2015 6:53 PM Flag
he's always been real streaky, just look at his month to month splits. If he's got a decent schedule coming in and I haven't looked at the Sox schedule but if he's at home or plays the Yankees a lot then he could get hot.
- Reply to Charlesco Aug 24, 2015 1:04 PMSlappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 1, 2015 6:55 PM Flag
it's not a bad haul for Harvey, though I'm not big on judge and would try to get someone else instead of him
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 1, 2015 7:06 PM Flag
Sano BABIP .419, what if that drops 100pts then he's a .200 hitter? He hits for power but he looks like a .230/30 guy to me. Schwarber looks legit at .270 to .280 with power, not sure how often he plays C though going forward. Cespedes is a nice player, but that's it, nice player having an above average year. Tulo 30, looks like a little downward cycle but TOR is a great place to hit. Posey 28, real solid year. Burns looks legit as a nice avg./speed OF, should equal Cespedes value over next 3 years. I think you did allright, especially if Schwarber ends up playing the OF next year which I think he will. Of course, I think Sano is at best Chris Davis and at worst Russell Branyan.
- Reply to Gibbo Aug 21, 2015 2:16 PMSlappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 1, 2015 7:18 PM Flag
if you are competing this year or next, do it. I like McCullers over Nola, I don't like Judge or realy Heyward. Perez is meh. Buxton for Votto and McCann is a risk, but again for this year and next could make a difference.
I see #$%$ Strong is laughing at my Sano Comment, so here is my analysis on him.
currently has 36%K rate, BABIP .432 AVG .295
Some players comps from the last two years with high K rates, their BABIP/AVG and final or current Rank.
C. Davis 32.9%/.309/.249/34
M. Taylor 31.4%/.322/.238/201 (last 30 days)
K. Bryant 30.5%/.367/.269/40
J. Pederson 29.4%/.263/.213/279
C. Davis 33%/.242/.196/253
C. Carter 31.8%/.267/.227/94
A. Dunn 31.1%/.286/.219/335
M. Upton 29.7%/.286/.209/392
J Castro 29.5%/.294/.222/584
Highest K% for qualified hitters was 33%, Sano at 36% and that stabilizes pretty quickly. His upside is Stanton, a guy who had a 31%K rate first year and now sits in the 26-29% range with Power. His more likely comp is Chris Davis, another power guy who's value jumps around based on how lucky he gets with balls in play. .250 is average with power, but you never know if you're gonna get .280 or .220 in any particular season. His downside is probably what is happening to Chris Carter or Pederson this year. Power guys who can't solve K problems and make a lot of outs.
I think he'll have value longer term, but i'd be wary of a Stanton type improvement.
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 11, 2015 4:15 PM Flag
Arenado and Correa both have batted ball distance of 296 and 294 respectively, both have legit power. Arenado K's a little less and has higher avg upside, correa has more speed and is #$%$ I see 4 legit keepers for you in goldy, correa, Kershaw and sale. Then it gets a little dicier, i'd probably keep frazier and kluber but it's not clear cut. I'd try to throw in springer or chris davis and get back another true top 15 player, otherwise I don't see a need to make this deal.
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 11, 2015 4:20 PM Flag
Since this post, Sano 3 for 23, 2HR and 12k. Chris Davis can have value, so it's not a bad comp for Sano I just have concerns that he doesn't make that jump to top 25 value consistently.
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 11, 2015 4:24 PM Flag
now that your early 30's #$%$ and can re-live when you were a benchwarmer on you high school team in puxatawney PA that had 10 players I'm glad you can enjoy the game again.
- Reply to DPac Sep 8, 2015 1:55 PMSlappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 11, 2015 4:31 PM Flag
Castillo, Bradley jr. is on a hot streak but Castillo seems more likely to have a higher avg and more HR year after year than bradley
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 11, 2015 7:22 PM Flag
Thank goodness indeed you didn't own the 6th highest ranking 3b in Bryant and instead owned semien. Not sure where he is on the list, I got tired of looking for him after page 1
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 11, 2015 7:25 PM Flag
Ah, the Rizzo, Laroche, Duda debate....Rizzo rk 18, Laroche 1100+, Duda 230. Yup, don't pay for that Rizzo value...
- Slappytheclown Slappytheclown Sep 14, 2015 3:18 PM Flag
much better than expected. The average looks legit with a BABIP that is not too high and a K% around 15% is good. He's got some speed, so 20-25SBs in a full year doesn't look out of the question and given the avg. and possibility that he takes even a few more walks next year bodes well for a good lineup spot and good R. Just not sure on the HR yet. Is it 7-8 or 15-20? I'd lean more towards 7-8, but if it did bump to 20-20 you could be looking at 3rd round value from a SS, maybe late 2nd round value?
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