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John 39 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 6, 2016 5:35 PM Member since: Jun 7, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Arcia crushing in the minors.

    by Adrian G Apr 27, 2016 2:33 PM
    John John Apr 27, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    Machado and Correa were premium SS this year. Boegarts was a good draft option. As was Lindor. If you missed out on a top tier SS, there has been Segura, Story, Diaz, Desmond, Suarez...all performing great. Castro has also looked good since the all-star break last year. Semien has upside. Cozart has potential. I'm not seeing SS as an incredibly thin position at all.

  • Reply to

    Adam Jones' or Dexter Fowler ROY?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 27, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    13 players had 100+ runs last season. 13 players had 100+ RBI. 28 players had 90+ runs. 25 players had 90+ RBI. 51 players had 80+ runs compared to 47 players with 80+ RBI. Also, being very basic and obvious here I know, there is always an RBI for every Run and vice versa. None of that info suggests to me that RBI's are worth more than runs or harder to come by than runs.

    62 players hit 20+ HR last year. 30 players stole 20+ bases. In all of major league baseball, there were 4,920 homeruns hit last season. In all of major league baseball, there were 2,520 stolen bases. None of that data suggests that homeruns are worth more or harder to come by than stolen bases.

    Every category counts the same, so it's tough to convince me one category is worth more than another. You might convince me that certain categories are harder to come by or more indicative of a successful team than others, but it wouldn't be HR/RBI. Google the fangraphs article called Are Some Categories More Important than Others. There are other articles on the same topic too if you don't like fangraphs. There is quite a bit of data suggesting that, if any categories are more important to focus on than others, it is runs. They tend to be most predictive of a fantasy team's success.

    Bottom line, we disagree. That's okay. That's what makes it fun to play against other managers. I will personally take Fowler over Jones for 2016. Mostly because I trust his health more. But also because, even if they are both healthy, I will take what I see as a likely line for Fowler (103/18/52/21/.262) over what I see as a likely line for Jones (82/28/87/3/.277).

  • John John Apr 27, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    No. I believe in Rasmus. I think he has as good a year as Upton or better (even if/when Upton rebounds).

  • Reply to

    Adam Jones' or Dexter Fowler ROY?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 27, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    Baseball starts in April and ends in October. 2013-2014 is not a season, it's two.

    We can cordially agree to disagree and we'll see who is right as the season plays out. I actually think we mostly agree on the numbers Fowler is likely to put up (95-105, 15-20, 50-60, 15-20). And we don't really disagree that much about what Jones could do. We seem to disagree most about injured player strategies and on on which categories matter most in fantasy. I don't like banking on a player getting healthy who isn't currently healthy and is coming off a season of not being healthy. I predict Jones is going to battle injuries off and on this year and probably end up with a line that is worse than Folwer's. We'll see if I'm right or not. If not, I'll gladly admit it.

  • Reply to

    Aledmys Diaz

    by Jay Apr 25, 2016 2:34 PM
    John John Apr 27, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    I haven't missed a Cardinal game yet this year. Diaz has a long way to go to be as good as Peralta on D at this point. I know the rep on Peralta, but that is mostly pre-Cardinals. The Cardinals have been high on his d since he came to St. Louis. And if you look at UZR and other metrics (or watch the games), the numbers back up that line of thought. If Diaz continues to hit and improves his defense, it's possible St. Louis looks to trade Peralta at the deadline. That was the original plan when they signed Jhonny to a frontloaded contract at the same time they signed Diaz. They wanted to pay Peralta the biggest money while he played SS and then be able to trade him or move him somewhere else on the field by the time Diaz was ready to take the job. The problem is, there isn't anywhere else to move him right now that would make sense. If Peralta stays with St. Louis, he will be their regular Shortstop.

  • Reply to

    Aledmys Diaz

    by Jay Apr 25, 2016 2:34 PM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 5:20 PM Flag

    Diaz has a lot of problems making the routine plays and therefor is far inferior to Peralta on defense. Which is saying something since, as you say, steady is about the best word you can use describe Peralta's defense.

    If not for the hot bat his glove would have been benched already. I'm hoping he improves his D enough by the time Peralta is back that they find ways to get him to the lineup.

  • Reply to

    did i give up to early on tulo?

    by John Giordano Apr 26, 2016 1:00 PM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 4:39 PM Flag

    I currently own Starlin Castro and NOT Paul Goldschmidt. Does that mean I value him more or that he's better?

  • Reply to

    Maeda's value?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    To say Jones is going to give you 50 more RBI is crazy. RBI's are the one category he will almost certainly outproduce Fowler, but to say he'll better Fowler by 50RBI assumes Jones will have around 95-100 RBI. His RBI numbers have trended downward for 3 seasons and he had 82 last year, so it's not wise to project him for more than 80 even if he's healthy. His RBI average over the last 6 years is 86 per year, and that includes his monster 2013 season.

  • Reply to

    Adam Jones' or Dexter Fowler ROY?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    It's definitely always a smart fantasy strategy to bank on guys with injury problems to get healthy and then give you numbers near their career highs. Especially when said injured player had his peak seasons in 2012 and 2013 and has steadily declined across the board every year since.

    Adam Jones, if he gets healthy and that's a big if, is likely to give you 70-80R, 20-25HR, 75-85RBI, 2-4SB, .265.275AVG at this point in his career. He could give you more, but I don't see any reason to predict a trend reversal for a guy like Jones. Fowler is likely to give you 95-105R, 15-20HR, 50-60RBI. And is trending in the right direction, so could give you even more. So you sacrifice some RBI for a big uptick in R/SB, plus you get more upside with Fowler and less injury risk. Fowler over Jones.

    Did I also mention that Fowler re-tooled his swing over the offseason, added 20 pounds, and doubled his walk rate. More reason to think he hasn't hit his ceiling yet while Jones obviously has.

    I'll assume I don't even need to point out why Maeda is a better fantasy option than Shields.

  • Reply to

    Maeda's value?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:48 PM Flag

    I like Maeda a lot, but ERA under 3? Lofty goal. If he gave me an ERA between 3 and 3.5 with 15 wins and 150K's I'd be very happy.

  • Reply to

    did i give up to early on tulo?

    by John Giordano Apr 26, 2016 1:00 PM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:47 PM Flag

    Yeah, like I said, I would have held on to Tulo or tried to get more.

  • Reply to

    Adam Jones' or Dexter Fowler ROY?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    Also, neither Jones or Fowler will be the Rookie of the Year. Neither are eligible.

  • Reply to

    Maeda's value?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    Not a good deal. Just because Fowler and Maeda are players you drafted late or picked up off the wire doesn't make them less valuable than Jones and Shields. I would be shocked if Maeda wasn't better than Sheilds this year and I also think Fowler will most likely be better than Jones. Especially with Jones being an injury risk. It's early, but fantasy is all about figuring out the season before everyone else. Right now there is no reason to believe Maeda and Fowler aren't legit. Likewise, there is no reason to believe Jones and Sheilds are going to have huge bouncebacks.

  • Reply to

    Adam Jones' or Dexter Fowler ROY?

    by Tom Apr 26, 2016 8:47 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    Agree with the others. I prefer Fowler and Maeda. Numbers over names.

  • Reply to

    Greinke or Harvey?

    by fredbirdfreon Apr 26, 2016 10:41 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:36 PM Flag

    What is it about Harvey that is concerning you more than Greinke?

  • Reply to

    did i give up to early on tulo?

    by John Giordano Apr 26, 2016 1:00 PM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    Both seem like about an equal risk to go down with an injury. Both will probably produce pretty well while healthy (despite Tulo's early struggles). So it's not awful, but I definitely would have held on to Tulo or tried to get more for him.

  • Reply to

    Greinke or Harvey?

    by fredbirdfreon Apr 26, 2016 10:41 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 2:10 PM Flag

    Harvey

  • Reply to

    Puig/Price

    by Kyle Apr 25, 2016 12:12 AM
    John John Apr 26, 2016 12:34 PM Flag

    I've posted a question in this thread and it keeps magically disappearing. Anyone know why? It still shows I'm the last person to have posted here, but my post is gone. I was asking Mr. Strong for some advice on which f/a pitcher he liked most in my 12 teamer.

  • Reply to

    Aledmys Diaz

    by Jay Apr 25, 2016 2:34 PM
    John John Apr 25, 2016 3:20 PM Flag

    I think the bat is for real. Matheny still isn't going to play him every day because of defensive issues and the job is still Peralta's when he comes back. But, as long as Diaz plays I believe he will produce. Just watch him hit. He takes pro at bats. Nice looking swing, puts barrel and ball.

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