General Message Board
Because of the PPR points - Brown, Allen, Fitzgerald, VJax
You said Brown had high receptions but not monster stats, yet only Gordon had more receiving yards.
Allen has the most upside of any of the guys to have a better season than last year, which was already good.
Arians is using Fitzgerald like he was Wayne in Indy.
You said VJax usually hits around 80 catches, yet his his receptions in past full seasons are 78, 72, 60, 68, 52, 41. Additionally, McCown was a product of the coaching/playcalling in Chicago, not a product of having big WRs.
Turner did not make Gates important. Three of Gates' five best seasons were in the three years preceding Turner. The first of those two years (the best fantasy seasons Gates had) were with Drew Brees.
Green won't be able to put up TE1 numbers until Gates has to sit due to injury.
Guys like Graham and Gronkowski are the equivalent of having two of these lesser TEs in your starting lineup.
To easily see Yahoo's values, you can:
A. Join an auction mock.
B. Create a team in an auction league and go to the pre-draft rankings page.
Considering real auction values are dependent on players themselves, that's hardly a disservice.
Wrong about Johnson. Johnson has played every game in the last two seasons and has only missed games in 4 out of 11 seasons. That's not bad at all, and he isn't injury prone. For further comparison, Calvin Johnson has missed games in 4 out of 7 seasons.
But the answer to the question is White.
I'm not sure why so many people are acting like McCown isn't entering his 11th season. Last year was not the first time he's been a starter in the league. His history as well as Cutler's success last year shows nothing but that he was a product of Chicago's new coaching and supporting players.
Thomas. TE is the weakest position this year and has great disparity between the top and bottom guys. You being in a 14-team league makes it even more apparent. Keeping Thomas is the pick most likely to give you a positional/points edge vs. most opponents.
I'm assuming you have a late pick in your draft, but it would be helpful to know your league size, exact draft position, and your thoughts on who drafting ahead of you is keeping as that can change a few things.
Your best option, if available, would be to trade a combination of Stacy and your WRs for Calvin Johnson, Graham, or a very high draft pick.
Otherwise, the answer is none of the above: Manning, McCoy, AP, and Julio.
Don't call it a long-term league. Keepers and dynasty leagues die every year. Players get upset, players leave, maybe replacements come in, replacements leave. The truth is that keeper leagues can be difficult to maintain long-term if the degree of parity is slacking or if there is no contingency plan to keep it fair year to year. This is especially true in top-heavy leagues, and your team is certainly a qualifier. Even in a league of close friends, it's very likely you will eventually hear the pleas for a redraft.
Even in a keeper or dynasty league, the goal is to win now, not a year or two later or when your league may no longer exist. Play to win now, and then make appropriate moves during the season or following off-season to set you up for next year. This means you keep Manning, McCoy and AP without question (all can be easily traded during the season too).
Would you really want to release the likes of Manning or AP only to see the mangers that kept elites like Charles, Megatron, Graham, etc. pick them up and dominate?
Stacey - No reason to keep a guy like Stacy. He had a good first season, but he isn't a proven commodity for the longer term (yet). Having a very talented Tre Mason possibly in the mix doesn't help as well.
Julio vs. Thomas - This is kind of a wash for the immediate term, so it's the only one I would look at for the long term. In the coming seasons, personally, I see Thomas on team without Manning or Welker whereas Ryan is still throwing to Julio, and White is taking pressure off for another 4 years.
I'm not conveniently not mentioning anything. To be honest, I'm not sure you understand the difference between fluke injuries and injury-prone. Charles and Peterson had fluke injuries and have been durable outside of those. Murray is injury-prone and has been going back to his days in college. Granted, he's no Johnathan Stewart, but his history has proven that he in unlikely to play a whole season.
You are downplaying Fitzgerald, who had just "one" bad year in the past three. That year he had no QBs. Last year was not a bad year either; it just wasn't an elite year. If you throw out the Seattle games, which you would have been benched him in, he's just behind Jordy Nelson in points per game last season.
You are also far downplaying the rather minor differences in production from WRs overall. Again, the gain in points for Bryant isn't significant enough to outweigh the loss of Charles for however many games Murray plays. You are acting like Fitzgerald is only a name now, but if you make this trade, you are really only doing it to get the name Bryant on your team.
Also, you are pretty off on your "pick" trading, although I understand you probably rank Murray that high if you are this delusional about him. Current Yahoo ADPs have Bryant at 13.3 and Murray at 20.5.
In your every team who wins has elite, elite, elite argument, you are also assuming that he doesn't have a better WR than Fitz or even an elite one. Murray is certainly no elite RB either.
Maybe instead of playing in so many leagues, you should play in less and more homework.
It is not nearly impossible to predict these players, no more than QB actually. The people and pundits that think this either don't do their homework or succumb to the theories that the positions are not important or should always be drafted in the last rounds.
Sure there will be a breakout player, EVERY position has breakout players. Actually, almost every good fantasy player could be classified as having a breakout season at one time in their career.
Kickers are actually pretty easy as the top guys are fairly consistent year to year. The things that affect most kickers' value are team changes and supporting offense changes, which can both be evaluated prior to the season. After the known commodities, it can be less predictable, but no more than than the QBs who are ranked in all sorts of fashions from #4 to #12 by various sources. As far as streaming a different one every week, that is almost impossible to predict.
Defenses tend to have a 2-4 year shelf life. A lot of that is due to player and coaching changes, player age, and improvement of other teams the defense plays. Again, this is all stuff that can be evaluated.
Again, I'm not saying you can't stream defenses, my point is that is more effective to carry a good one and stream with a second when you have a bad matchup or a great matchup comes along with a possible streamer.
- Reply to Robert B Jul 22, 2014 5:26 PM
Nunya, I think you missed the point.. The point isn't about league size, it's about 3 WRs vs 2 WRs and FLEX rosters. I think Robert B might have said it better than me. The crux is that playing with a flex can be like a golfer's handicap in helping you assemble your starting lineup. When it comes to WRs, my point is that the position is far to deep not to require everyone to start three.
"Decker put up great numbers with Peyton Manning. He is no longer with Peyton Manning."
Yet a less-experienced Eric Decker averaged 12.75 fantasy points per game in his 2nd season with Kyle Orton as his QB.
Pretty sure a lot of people didn't expect the performances of Wayne and Garcon without Manning too.
None of your starters except Griffin ( if you don't believe in him) and none of your RBs. Losing those guys to get Luck doesn't benefit your roster. Luck is the most overdrafted QB right now; he's not an elite QB and has the same value as a ton of other QBs. Bid low. If you get it great; if you don't, no loss to your starting core.
Looks pretty weak, especially at RB, and in dire need of breakout players. I can't tell who you picked after your 4th pick, which isn't a good sign. I assume you are referring to James White since you grouped him with Vareen and Ridley, so that's a no-value pick not to mention the odd Vareen/Ridley pairing. Weak WRS after Calvin, which is not an easy thing to say this year since it is such a deep position.
Don't be fooled into thinking you can stream kickers; there's too many variables and no real rhyme or reason to it. And for what? There's only marginal differences in fantasy points against for teams vs kickers anyway. Just grab the best kicker you can can that's consistently averaging 10pts or more a game. You'll score more overall and not even have to deal with changing your roster every week.
Also, holding a good defense and streaming with a 2nd when needed is much more successful than trying to play the waiver wire every week.
Keeping Tate is a waste of a 10th round pick in my opinion, and that's saying a lot. I don't think Stafford is worth a 4th unless your league is 14 teams or you start 2 QBS. What does the rest of your roster look like?
Giving up Charles for this is a bad trade. The WR position is too deep for it it to retain value. Look at it this way:
Murray, in his best season by far, scored 6 points per game less than Charles. (Also note that Murray has never played a full season.)
Fitzgerald, who ranked as a high-end WR3 last season, scored a mere 3 points less than Bryant. (Note that Fitzgerald was also a feast or famine play last season, which means he may can be predicted based on matchups ; he had 7 games under 6 points, 7 games over 12.)
Would you want to give up 3 points per game to have Bryant and an injury-prone RB on your roster? Let's also not forget Romo is coming off his second back surgery and backup Orton is gone
Personally, I would also feel more comfortable with Fitzgerald returning even closer to his former self than trusting Murray to have another year like last year.