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Crasstastic 309 posts  |  Last Activity: May 4, 2016 5:54 PM Member since: Feb 28, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Oops...made a mistake and drafted Chris Davis

    by Dick Strong Feb 5, 2016 4:04 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 10, 2016 11:42 AM Flag

    You made the same argument for Steve Pearce last year. That didn't exactly pan out... to put it mildly.

  • Reply to

    Kevin Pillar

    by Zain Feb 10, 2016 10:38 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 10, 2016 11:54 PM Flag

    Pillar was one of only 15 players last year to steal 25+ bases. And of those 15, he was one of only 6 to hit double digit home runs. The other players on the list are early round guys. His walk rate is low, but that's true of many players with his skill set, and his strikeout rate was on par with Pollock. For points leagues, add 31 doubles to that. Where you need to take him to get him, there's little risk...

  • Reply to

    McCuthen for Stanton

    by Ryan L Feb 11, 2016 10:46 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 11, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    I like McCutchen over Stanton... but I think the case re. SBs is overstated here. McCutchen had a whopping 11 SBs in 2015. McCutchen has had a three year decline in SBs. There is a non-zero chance that Stanton actually steals more bases than McCutchen this year.

  • Reply to

    McCuthen for Stanton

    by Ryan L Feb 11, 2016 10:46 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 11, 2016 7:38 PM Flag

    If you're in a position to draft Trout, it means you have a top 3 pick. You may like Blackmon better than Trout, but would you really take him top 3 when you can take Trout (or Pollock, Goldschmidt) there, and take Blackmon when it comes back in round 2? Blackmon is rarely going to be taken by that point.

  • Reply to

    McCuthen for Stanton

    by Ryan L Feb 11, 2016 10:46 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    All of that makes sense, but doesn't address the original point. You want Blackmon, you take Blackmon, but not before Trout (or more specifically, the range where Trout is taken). You take him at the point before you think anyone else will. And that's not in the top 3 picks.

  • Reply to

    McCuthen for Stanton

    by Ryan L Feb 11, 2016 10:46 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 12:29 PM Flag

    Unless we redefine the wording. Rather than saying "take Blackmon before Trout", the premise should be "I value Blackmon ahead of Trout." Probably just an exercise in semantics, that.

  • Reply to

    McCuthen for Stanton

    by Ryan L Feb 11, 2016 10:46 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    Machado makes sense to take ahead of Trout or Harper. He's not coming back to you in a snake draft, and you're probably not getting Machado and another viable starter if you take Trout or Harper in the hopes of a parlay. But Blackmon just doesn't make sense, because there is little chance that you can't get him in round 2. Why take Blackmon ahead of Trout, when you could have both, and then trade Trout to the very people who you identify as overvaluing him?

  • Reply to

    McCuthen for Stanton

    by Ryan L Feb 11, 2016 10:46 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 1:16 PM Flag

    I could be wrong, I haven't really been crowdsourcing this yet, but I'd be floored if, in a standard 12 teamer, Blackmon is going earlier than round 3 in any more than on out of every 15 drafts. Even that is probably conservative.

  • Reply to

    Dynasty rather have Schwarber or Chris Davis?

    by Patrick Feb 11, 2016 10:15 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    All data is important, however more recent seasons have greater predictive value, especially for certain players. As you yourself have cited in other threads, Bautista's numbers changed dramatically at a very late age, his power numbers exploding. His career 162 game average, therefore, skewed by his less-than-Ruthian early seasons, would serve us poorly in predicting future stats, compared to his (say) most recent 3-5 year average. A 162 game season from Bautista this year is unlikely to net us 33 HRs and 92 RBI.

  • Reply to

    This league, wow!

    by Patrick Feb 12, 2016 6:43 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 13, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    Perfect example of why you draft Harper. Because there are people out there who might agree to that kind of swap.

  • Reply to

    Am I giving up too much to land Trout?

    by Craig Feb 14, 2016 7:33 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 14, 2016 11:26 PM Flag

    Maybe before the SBs dried up... and the Ks, if it's a points h2h. Not now.

  • Reply to

    Anthony Rizzo

    by Dick Strong Feb 15, 2016 5:14 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 15, 2016 5:34 PM Flag

    They (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo) have done several analyses re. "lineup protection", and from what I've read it has always been found to essentially be a myth. It seems counter-intuitive, but the numbers don't lie. As DS says, batting order position matters, mostly because it affects how many ABs one gets.

    Don't believe me? Google "batting order protection" and start reading.

  • Reply to

    Kevin Pillar

    by Zain Feb 10, 2016 10:38 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 18, 2016 8:18 AM Flag

    Musial hit well above 20 in the minors twice. The year before he had his first "20+" season, he had 19. Pillar only made it to a whopping 10 HR once in the minors. And last year, he only hit 12. The point isn't whether any player in the history of MLB has ever crossed 20 at the age of 27... the point is whether THIS PLAYER projects to do so. He does not.

  • Reply to

    Kevin Pillar

    by Zain Feb 10, 2016 10:38 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 18, 2016 1:41 PM Flag

    It's really easy to provide point and counterpoint here, as long as those making the arguments have the will, faculties, and resources to do so. But the real question here is, do you actually project Pillar for 20 HR, or is this just an exercise in argumentation for you? Mind you, I have no problem if it's the latter, I just want to know what we're actually doing here. If all you're trying to accomplish is to show that it is theoretically possible for Pillar "show 20 HR power" in any sense that that phrase can be interpreted, I'll concede that here and now.

  • Reply to

    Kevin Pillar

    by Zain Feb 10, 2016 10:38 PM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 18, 2016 7:47 PM Flag

    That is an interesting, and sensible, tactic. But I don't think your interpretation of the word "projection" is entirely correct. I doubt many would describe their projections as a "given".

  • Reply to

    Trade thoughts....

    by Ben Feb 19, 2016 12:40 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 19, 2016 8:58 AM Flag

    That is dumb... perhaps. I wonder if he plays Yahoo. Standard on many sites (e.g. CBS)for Roto is 5 OF slots, 1 Util. That would explain it. If he plays standard Yahoo, there's no explaining it.

  • Reply to

    Trade thoughts....

    by Ben Feb 19, 2016 12:40 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 19, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    You're right. I missed that, was only looking at the position next to the name, didn't notice the spot next to the name.

  • Reply to

    Trade thoughts....

    by Ben Feb 19, 2016 12:40 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 19, 2016 11:43 AM Flag

    Google CBS fantasy baseball forums. No hit. Now google ESPN fantasy baseball forums. No hit. Now do both again, but replace "forums" with "message board." No hits. There are plenty of people here that play elsewhere, but come to this forum because the site they play on doesn't have this resource. I myself have played Yahoo, CBS, and ESPN, but for crowdsourcing and questions you pretty much have to come to here or a handful of other places (fantasy baseball café, rotoworld forums, etc.). I'd guess that most here are yahoo players, but it's not a given.

  • Reply to

    Trade thoughts....

    by Ben Feb 19, 2016 12:40 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 19, 2016 11:46 AM Flag

    Faulty logic. I play in only one league.

  • Reply to

    Trade thoughts....

    by Ben Feb 19, 2016 12:40 AM
    Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 19, 2016 12:07 PM Flag

    Time is the fourth dimension, idiot. I've played in CBS, ESPN, and Yahoo. I never said I did all that at the same time.

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