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- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 10, 2016 11:42 AM Flag
You made the same argument for Steve Pearce last year. That didn't exactly pan out... to put it mildly.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 10, 2016 11:54 PM Flag
Pillar was one of only 15 players last year to steal 25+ bases. And of those 15, he was one of only 6 to hit double digit home runs. The other players on the list are early round guys. His walk rate is low, but that's true of many players with his skill set, and his strikeout rate was on par with Pollock. For points leagues, add 31 doubles to that. Where you need to take him to get him, there's little risk...
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 11, 2016 1:12 PM Flag
I like McCutchen over Stanton... but I think the case re. SBs is overstated here. McCutchen had a whopping 11 SBs in 2015. McCutchen has had a three year decline in SBs. There is a non-zero chance that Stanton actually steals more bases than McCutchen this year.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 11, 2016 7:38 PM Flag
If you're in a position to draft Trout, it means you have a top 3 pick. You may like Blackmon better than Trout, but would you really take him top 3 when you can take Trout (or Pollock, Goldschmidt) there, and take Blackmon when it comes back in round 2? Blackmon is rarely going to be taken by that point.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 12:27 PM Flag
All of that makes sense, but doesn't address the original point. You want Blackmon, you take Blackmon, but not before Trout (or more specifically, the range where Trout is taken). You take him at the point before you think anyone else will. And that's not in the top 3 picks.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 12:29 PM Flag
Unless we redefine the wording. Rather than saying "take Blackmon before Trout", the premise should be "I value Blackmon ahead of Trout." Probably just an exercise in semantics, that.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 1:14 PM Flag
Machado makes sense to take ahead of Trout or Harper. He's not coming back to you in a snake draft, and you're probably not getting Machado and another viable starter if you take Trout or Harper in the hopes of a parlay. But Blackmon just doesn't make sense, because there is little chance that you can't get him in round 2. Why take Blackmon ahead of Trout, when you could have both, and then trade Trout to the very people who you identify as overvaluing him?
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 1:16 PM Flag
I could be wrong, I haven't really been crowdsourcing this yet, but I'd be floored if, in a standard 12 teamer, Blackmon is going earlier than round 3 in any more than on out of every 15 drafts. Even that is probably conservative.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 12, 2016 1:29 PM Flag
All data is important, however more recent seasons have greater predictive value, especially for certain players. As you yourself have cited in other threads, Bautista's numbers changed dramatically at a very late age, his power numbers exploding. His career 162 game average, therefore, skewed by his less-than-Ruthian early seasons, would serve us poorly in predicting future stats, compared to his (say) most recent 3-5 year average. A 162 game season from Bautista this year is unlikely to net us 33 HRs and 92 RBI.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 15, 2016 5:34 PM Flag
They (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo) have done several analyses re. "lineup protection", and from what I've read it has always been found to essentially be a myth. It seems counter-intuitive, but the numbers don't lie. As DS says, batting order position matters, mostly because it affects how many ABs one gets.
Don't believe me? Google "batting order protection" and start reading.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 18, 2016 8:18 AM Flag
Musial hit well above 20 in the minors twice. The year before he had his first "20+" season, he had 19. Pillar only made it to a whopping 10 HR once in the minors. And last year, he only hit 12. The point isn't whether any player in the history of MLB has ever crossed 20 at the age of 27... the point is whether THIS PLAYER projects to do so. He does not.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 18, 2016 1:41 PM Flag
It's really easy to provide point and counterpoint here, as long as those making the arguments have the will, faculties, and resources to do so. But the real question here is, do you actually project Pillar for 20 HR, or is this just an exercise in argumentation for you? Mind you, I have no problem if it's the latter, I just want to know what we're actually doing here. If all you're trying to accomplish is to show that it is theoretically possible for Pillar "show 20 HR power" in any sense that that phrase can be interpreted, I'll concede that here and now.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 18, 2016 7:47 PM Flag
That is an interesting, and sensible, tactic. But I don't think your interpretation of the word "projection" is entirely correct. I doubt many would describe their projections as a "given".
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 19, 2016 8:58 AM Flag
That is dumb... perhaps. I wonder if he plays Yahoo. Standard on many sites (e.g. CBS)for Roto is 5 OF slots, 1 Util. That would explain it. If he plays standard Yahoo, there's no explaining it.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Feb 19, 2016 11:43 AM Flag
Google CBS fantasy baseball forums. No hit. Now google ESPN fantasy baseball forums. No hit. Now do both again, but replace "forums" with "message board." No hits. There are plenty of people here that play elsewhere, but come to this forum because the site they play on doesn't have this resource. I myself have played Yahoo, CBS, and ESPN, but for crowdsourcing and questions you pretty much have to come to here or a handful of other places (fantasy baseball café, rotoworld forums, etc.). I'd guess that most here are yahoo players, but it's not a given.
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