Who to Start Message Board
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 31, 2015 4:47 PM Flag
DS cites Puig and Trout, and their respective call-up dates. What about Springer and Longoria? Both were called up earlier, making a mid-April call-up completely realistic. I don't know which it will be, and neither does DS. I do know that there are 2 pieces of timing in play: 1) that needs to be managed so as not to lose a year under team control; and 2) that needs to be managed so that a player is not eligible for earlier arbitration. I'm sure that #1 is probably more important to the Cubs than #2, just as it was to the Rays with Longoria and Astros with Springer.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 12, 2015 7:47 PM Flag
A fantasy player cares that Kershaw missed April because it lowered his K total, his W total, and the number of innings he ate up with his superior WHIP and ERA. The only reason their stats were close was because of that missed April, so to argue that his missed April was irrelevant is quite frankly bizarre.
Projecting a full slate of games played by Kershaw is not delving into the Mythological, it is delving into his actual 5 year average. 2014 is the first time in five years he didn't reach 200 IP. Just the year prior, in 2013? 236 innings. Now tell me, how exactly do you think his stats compare to Cueto's if he gets another 38 innings last year? Still equal(ish)? How projecting his performance based on his actual performance and his actual average workload equates to the mythological in your mind is a mystery.
You may be correct that his AVEGAGE performance per start wouldn't benefit, but that is a non-point. Do you play in a league that uses average Ks? I don't. I play in a league that uses TOTAL Ks, and therefore more games, and more Ks, from Kershaw is... wait for it... a good thing. Same with Ws. All counting stats benefit from higher totals, regardless of whether the average per game performance increases. And with the ratios, more games also helps, even if the ratio stays the same... which, funnily enough, is a point you make in favour of Cueto!
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 12, 2015 3:25 PM Flag
You correctly conclude that Kershaw and Cueto's performance was equal in 2014. But that is not what Joe and Matthew are disputing. Project their 2015 season as akin to 2014 and give Kershaw another month of production (since he's not slated to miss April as he did last year), and based on their per game production, they will no longer be equal.
You don't pick players simply based on what they did last year. Rather, you pick players based on what you project they will do THIS year. Past production is the most important indicator of future performance, however not taking games played into account is absurd... unless you're talking about Tulo, Cargo, chronic repeat offenders. But that doesn't describe Kershaw, so there is no reason to assume Kershaw won't pitch 34ish games and therefore be superior to Cueto.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 12, 2015 3:00 PM Flag
We don't play 2015 with stats from 2014. If Kershaw missed the first month of 2014 and equalled (or was superior to) Cueto's stats, then logically by NOT missing the first month of 2015 one must conclude that, should both simply repeat their production pace from last year, Kershaw will outperform Cueto in 2015.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 24, 2015 6:33 PM Flag
I don't often see Gomez going late in the 2nd. Not in mocks, not in real drafts. I can't honestly say that there is no possible league where that would happen, but it is not the norm.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 26, 2015 1:24 PM Flag
This doesn't make sense. Even if one agrees that those guys are better than Stanton, it would be foolish to take many of them with the 3 pick. NOT because of any superiority to Stanton, but simply because you wouldn't need to as you could easily get them later. Gomez and Jones, sure, they are not making it back to you in a snake draft if you are picking 3rd. But the rest? Draft picks are resources, and it is wasting resources to take Kemp at 3rd overall.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 26, 2015 7:36 PM Flag
This is a flawed analogy, you're making a strawman argument. You project an entire roster based on an extreme extrapolation (that no one is espousing) of drafting a player based on his ceiling. One would never, ever build a roster of that makeup. Managers taking a player with upside would mitigate that risk by taking others with proven, stable production. Much as a manager might draft injury-based risk in Cargo, or Tulo, or Harper, but no one would draft all three and throw in Wainwright and Tanaka to boot. Any intelligently diversified portfolio is going to have commodities with different with varying levels of risk.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 15, 2015 4:20 PM Flag
I think that if you are adept at building a really solid team, and are confident in your ability to assess, you can take a shot earlier than that. "A" shot, not a half dozen. Those who took a "shot" (if you want to call it that) on Abreu last year would not have been able to wait until round 23, nor would those who scooped up Harvey the year before... I got both in their respective years, and was very confident in those moves. On the other hand, I would not have wanted to take multiple shots of that nature... much as I might be willing to take on one injury magnet with a team (like Tulo, Cargo, etc.), but I would not want to have a team riddled with those types. Though perhaps the Abreu and Harvey examples were more predictable than Bryant... I certainly don't have the same "sure fire" feeling on Bryant.
- Crasstastic Crasstastic Mar 31, 2015 7:50 PM Flag
The Rays are known as a "smart" team, and they brought Longoria up extremely early. Having arbitration hit a year early isn't nearly as concerning to clubs as losing a year under team control is.
Anyone else having serious issues with lag when using the new mock draft program? It's borderline unusable. I normally enjoy mock drafting every year, but it's ruined for me.
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