Commissioner Corner Message Board
So I missed out on the championship round by 2 steals, and I'm thinking about next year.
What do you think the best strategies are?
Even though you're drafting guys to carry you the whole season, you have to consider playoffs. So maybe it's better to pick players who are on teams that are more in the middle or lower end of playoff seeding so their stars will play until the end of the season. For example- I would have done much better if I had picked Carmelo, Iverson, or Deron Williams in the third round instead of Paul Pierce.
While it's nice to have a well-rounded team, it's important to specialize in a few categories. Blocks, steals, and assists are some of the more difficult categories to cover. So I would think it'd be best to go for big men and point guards who get a lot of steals and assists. Consistency, playing time, and opportunity are important for production.
So next year, I think I'll try to load up on big men early. Big guys get injured, and they're not that easy to replace on the wire (I dropped Kaman for Noah), so I figure you can never have enough. Even in a 12-team H2H league, there will always be some decent free agents on the wire (usually guards and forwards though). There is also a huge talent dropoff in big men after the 4th/5th round or so.
With these points, how would you draft?
Is drafting big men in 3 out of the first 4 rounds too much? 4 out of the first 5? Will I lose out too much on guard quality?
Depending if you're high enough in the first to draft Lebron, Kobe, or Paul (easily take one of those 3) - what's the best way to draft and why? Big, Big, guard/forward, big? Alternate between big and small?
I figure these players could be keys to success next year if drafted together-
Lebron, Kobe, Paul, Stoudemire, not so sure after these 4.
Dwight Howard (maybe late 1st?), Josh Smith (late 1st?), Billups, Bosh, Gasol, Iverson, Iguodala, Al Jefferson,
Butler, Camby (maybe late 2nd), Baron Davis (maybe 2nd round), Pierce(a favortie player of mine, but now I'm not sure for playoffs), Durant (shooting better) , Boozer, Vince Carter
Kevin Martin, Anthony, Jamison, David West, Ginobili, Roy
Artest, Gay, Granger, Bynum, Kaman, Bogut
Mo Williams, Monta Ellis, Turkoglu, Dalembert
Crawford, Horford, etc. etc.
So what do you guys think? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
- 1 Reply to alfred
what i learned this year was that regardless of the strategy i wanted, i should adjust my drafting according to how the other managers were (note: talking about live drafts here, not pre-rank). the first round is all about talent, while in the later rounds i got fixated by filling positions. i should have screwed that and paid attention to the other teams choices. if PG's were getting gobbled i should have realized that sticking to my position plan would mean i had a crap backup (my starter was hinrich.. backup was felton: you can guess how my season went).
among the suggestions my favorite is to have a different strategy per league. gets boring if you have nearly the same lineup if you keep drafting the same way.
as for people who have bigger roles next year
Granger and Dunleavy seem to be those people..
I'm going along with the Oden bandwagon too.. it seems the Blazers organization will give him the starting spot.. be updated on that.. (that means Aldridge might not have C eligibility) depends.
my top 3 picks for next year would be 1.CP3
2.AMARE (HOPEFULLY) 3. AL JEFFERSON
i was also thinking geting 1.CP3 2.NASH 3.CAMBY and if i cant get camby i will try to trade some other players for someone like al jefferson so i have a good stradegy i think. im also in the finals i have cp3 .camby and al.jefferson as my top players
Basically I am for 2- PGs and PF/C, depends on my draft position
but either way, my first 2-4 picks will be in this position hehehe..
For PGs, my earlier picks would obviously go for Paul/Deron.. the others, not so sure, alot are getting older.. (though they still are good) I'm not sure about Arenas.. I think he'll be big next year..
later round PGs are Ford.. also checkout the lottery teams (Memphis - Conley, Navarro)
for PF/C, obviously I'd aim for Stoudemire, Howard.. one thing to note is also Chandler, (who'll most likely drop till the 4th or 5th round, who is 3rd in rebounding this year.. Bynum too.. he's young so he'll have recovered from his injury by then..
in OPs post of covering blocks,steals,assts - Josh Smith is also worthy of an earlier pick.
- 1 Reply to dont waste my time
Very nice... just explain how someone can get Paul, Amare and Smith.... most probably noone will get even the 2 of the 3... Paul and Amare will be in top 5 and Smith most probably in top 15. Also Deron and Howard are going to be picked at same round... which of the 2 are you going to pick??? LOL
It's too early to talk about the next year's draft... Let's see how the players and temas will be by then...
I think you need to just draft TALENT period, then as the season progresses, you make some good trades to try and get more of what you want. People will trade if you have the bravery to trade your guys when they're hot and the person you are trading for just happens to be in a temporary slump. It's hard to plan your draft like you were saying. I think you will miss out on having a very valuable team if you pass up good guards in the first round because you have your mind set on getting big men. I say just trade for em later.
- 1 Reply to John
totally agree. this is the strategy i used this year and i'm in the final. along the way i traded aldridge for peja, dwade for monta, and jamison for melo right at the trade deadline.
you need to avoid guys who are injury-prone and make adjustments in order to win.
1) Who is going to be playing for position at the end of the year is one of the most difficult things to predict at the beginning of the year. Actually, the only predictable one is who are going to be the wost teams, and there will be surprises
2) Drafting depends a lot on the type of league, positions and stats played.
2A) For standard H2H league the scarcest position is C, and quality drops a lot after the top 5/6 Cs, so I always go for one of the best big men in round 1 or round 2 (Ming, Amare, Bosh, Boozer), and usually try to have a PG by round 3 (one of the best 6/7 drop always to round 3). The good thing about H2H is you can drop two categories easily, I always drop TO and the one that I see worst after 6 rounds, where I always have my PG, SG, SF, PF, C and C positions covered. the I start to round the categories.
2B) For rotisserie is much harder, you cannot drop anything, and the best is to draft unusual skills, that is, good FG shooting G, assist+FT big men and stuff like that. Usual position/category specialists are easier to find in final rounds.
3) I tend to think that second half of draft bets on rookies/sleepers/comeback players and good FA signings in the first few weeks determine a lot your performance. So it is important to follow preseason stats and have a feeling for possible rookies (Durant, Horford), sleepers (Harris, Calderon) or jump-to-star players (a la Granger, Gay, Ellis). Or comeback players (Hill, Kenyon Martin, Miller).
4) I value health and regularity a lot. It?s great to have players like Davis, Arenas, Jason Richardson or Josh Smith, but you have to value the injury risk (not good that your 5 best have missed 30+ games last season) and the regularity factor (there are players who can win you the game one week and disappear the following)
5) Over the years I have come to see best to draft 4 to 7, than drafting on the extremes of the rounds, even if you do not have access to the top 3 players.
I think you think too much lol. But the #1 thing you said and I agree 100% is not to draft players that are year in and year out on good teams that rest them come Fantasy Playoff time. We'll see with the Celtics, I think Doc will play the starters at least a little over this next week but itll def be something 2 watch. On the other hand, the Pistons do this year in and year out, so never draft or trade 4 a Piston starter. Rip Hamilton screwed me down the stretch for one of my teams. I've had great success this year creating 4 yahoo teams, 3 of which are in the final game, and the other one still has a chance to get 3rd place. I think the best draft strategy is to pick good players obv, non injury hassled players, and to take a risk on some1, do ur best to predict who will be a steal. Such as Kevin Durant this year, he was taken like 72nd overall in most leagues and was a steal at that. If Michael Beasley enters the draft which I'm sure he will Id say take a chance on him and hold out on it. Im def doing that next year.
You also have to think about the playoffs. It maybe stupid to say this but it's very effective, think about what the Celtics are doing at crucial moments. The teams you know who are top tier will rest their players, incase anything should happen. The championship game, where Garnett or Pierce or any other good player is resting, is what is most important. Think about who you choose wisely
Dwight Howard will most likely go down all the way to the 4th or 5th round. And if you pick Josh Smith, you have to go through with bad FG and FT%'s, so you'll have to pick it up with others. Chris Paul would be my definite pick for the first round, for obvious reasons, and another player I would choose for all around is Baron Davis. For big men, I really recommend players such as Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Al Horford (maybe not early but he's going to be a BEAST), Pau Gasol, and/or Rasheed Wallace. Those players are not injury-prone, and they provide good stats as well. Although you might be thinking why Rasheed Wallace? Just check how consistent he is on a daily basis, as well as the all around stats he provides. Marcus Camby would be an excellent pick up in the later rounds, although he is injury prone.
A few thoughts for you- I agree with much of what you said but you don't know what playoff or offseason injuries or trades will effect your plan.
Here are a few suggestions
3 of 4 bigs maybe ok
4 of 5 is too much-you need quality guards as well to win, assists, steals and 3's
Round Two- Billups generally is not great in the beginning, picks it up in the second half and doesn't play much after the Pistons have clinched, he may drop off next year a bit
Gasol is injury prone
Round Three, Butler, Davis, and Camby are injury prone- Durant may be too high, wait until he proves he will shoot a good %
Round Four-all players listed will be gone by the 4th round
Round Five- Artest misses too many games for various reasons, Gay will be gone long before Round 5 and Bogut is not good enough to draft in Round 5
Round 6 Monte Ellis and Turkoglu will be long gone
Round 7 If you draft Crawford you are crazy, until you see what is up with the Knicks for next year
Your general strategy is sound, but you need to take a closer look at the players and make your ranking is reasonable
In my opinion most championships are won in the draft after round 6 and with wise and early choice free agent pick ups
2 years ago I picked up Barbosa, Ellis, Kevin Martin Matt Barnes and Al Jefferson as Free Agents. Question is who will be the free agent steals next year?
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