• Commissioner Corner Message Board

  • Harold Carmichael Harold Carmichael Dec 21, 2011 11:54 AM Flag

    Why Hits are a bad FH category

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    • Good debate here. Not sure this can be all attributed to more ferocious play at home. That Washington bias is sick!!

      Peace out

    • That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. How do you explain the fact that Washington's hit totals are actually down 46% on the road this season?

    • Does the Washington scorekeeper really have any incentive to counts more questionable "hits" as hits? Does he get paid more? Do the Caps win the hit trophy at the end of the year? Like the writer said, there could be a new scorekeeper that has a different perspective on what defines a hit. When a team continues to play below their potential, a usual method of coping with the resulting frustration is to hit more (or a change in strategy made by the coach to play more physical). Also, while an add like Brouwer alone cannot account for 12 more hits per game (he averages around 200 hits per year), a more physical presence on the team like him can encourage other players to hit more. And lets not forget, the main core is mostly still there, but Washington has added a couple other key players so a change in the number of hits from year to year is not so statistically significant. While its not exactly apples and oranges, its more like comparing apples and pears or oranges and tangerines. With so many variables to consider, this isn't really as significant of a statistical bias as a couple numbers in a graph seem to indicate.

    • +/- is equally as bad as it does not reflect how good or bad one player is playing as it is more a reflection of a team stat. But it's a staple for FH. Hits, faceoffs, and other niche categories are straight crap though.

    • Yes, actually that is not believe at all. A hit or two extra per game at home? Sure. 13 extra hits every single home game? No way. This is clearly scorekeeper bias.

    • I agree with Chris and I think your "analysis" is very presumptive.

      There are plenty of subject stats in all sports. Saves are somewhat subjective, as is the manner in which penalties are doled out (a far more useless hockey stat - especially for fantasy, when it is inaccurately counted as a positive stat).

      As for Hits, three things are left unmentioned:

      A) You assume that teams aren't actually hitting more at home. Crowds love to see their teams dole out huge hits. This naturally, will vary by the crowd/team/type of players on said team.
      B) Even when hits are counted differently from one arena to the next, it theoretically applies to visiting teams as well. Over a season, it evens out.
      C) Most importantly, the chart disproves itself. Look at Washington, which jumped up 11 hits in differential this season. Is that bias or is it a sign of a team changing its strategy? How about in Detroit, LA, and Carolina - where solid teams have struggled due to less physical play?

    • That thread does not describe hits as a bad stat category, it just varies by arena. That being said, it evens out for everyone and they are all measured against each other on the same scale. Is it subjective? Yes, of course. Doesn't make it a bad stat.

    • I'll be showing this to my commish when we set up our league next season.

    • Don't play in a FH league with hits then!


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