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  • Conal Conal Feb 5, 2013 10:58 PM Flag

    Goalie swap - which side?

    Interesting that you (and everyone else that posted here, by the looks of it) feel that way. I'm more cautious about Niemi's start because he is not known, as Rinne is, to be the goaltender that carries his team - more of a Jimmy Howard type. Does everyone believe the Sharks will be this good over the rest of the season? Surely Niemi's numbers are destined to fall, and Rinne's to rise?

    Or am I alone here?

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    • Even a conservative estimate would have Rinne getting 2/3 the amount of wins that Niemi is going to get. The Predators are just terrible (despite their win tonight). Yhe Sharks are a good team. Niemi could post league average GAA and SV%, while Rinne rebounds and posts a .940 SV% the rest of the way, and I would STILL go with Niemi.

      I get the impression this offer has NOT been proposed to you, but you are proposing it to someone else. Obviously you are trading for the Rinne side - I assume partly because the way you have posed the question, and partly because I remember you posting on the forums before the season began that you thought Chris Stewart was a good player (a player who should not be on any roster in a 12 team league).

      .

      • 1 Reply to J
      • I do indeed own the Niemi side, although this trade was proposed to me.

        Thanks for your analysis - always appreciated. However, I would submit that you are speaking in hyperbole to emphasize your point. Suggesting that Rinne will win only 2/3 as many games as Niemi is a difficult argument to support, considering:

        - Niemi has averaged 34.5 wins in his two seasons as a Shark, which would equate to 20 wins in a 48-game season.
        - Even if he plays at a 40-win pace - an elite mark to hit - that would translate to 23 wins in a 48-game season.
        - You're suggesting that Rinne, even in the most conservative estimates, will only win 13-15 games (a 23-26 win pace). You may be right, but it seems unlikely to me.

        Secondly - and this is my fault for failing to mention it earlier - my league counts W, GAA, SV%, and SO as goalie categories, so a .940 save percentage over the remaining 40 games of the season would be pretty valuable to me, if the alternative is .914 (league average last season).

        All that said, I will likely not accept this deal, thanks to the points you and others have raised. These forums certainly offer a great balance of perspective.

        P.S. And you were certainly right about Stewart - although please don't put words in my mouth. I took a flyer on him with a 19th round pick in the off-chance that he might rebound to the form he showed in Colorado, but never suggested anything beyond that. ;)

    • Id rather take a chance on Rinne and Ryan

 

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