Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Well...most sources seem to think that Mike Smith will have a major regression this year. The team around him wasn't great last season, and is even worse this season (if there *is* a season, of course). As a result, he's a bit of a risk. He might prove critics wrong and turn out to simply be a late bloomer -- I remember he showed flashes of brilliance in his early days as a backup in Dallas -- but I wouldn't be counting on him as your top netminder. Ehrhoff, on the other hand, should have a bounce-back year. He should be in the 45+ point range. Having said that, Pavelski and Lucic are hugely valuable in several stat categories, so the trade is definitely a risky one.
Whoever is getting Lucic and Pavelski wins big time. Even if Smith has another good year, I think that's way too much to give up for him. So depending which side of the trade you're on, do it or not. If you need a goalie, I'm sure you can find one and not give as much. Answer my post please if possible
Questions like this can't be answered without knowing what your pool is like. From a simple player standpoint, the obvious would probably point to Pavelski and Lucic being worth more as in most cases forwards get more points. But like someone else mentioned, if you are in NEED of a Goalie and are stuck with 2 backups as your regulars, and your lineup in other positions is already solid, then this move could work for you. The reason I say this is because often Goalie stats, depending how many are used in your pool, can add a higher overall point value when it's all said and done. But where you pick up the extra points with Smith, you will result with less points having Ehrhoff because D don't usually blow up the point category. And last year he was nowhere close to either Pavelski and Lucic.
I'll use my Yahoo pool from last season and my point strategy to compare. Goalie wins are 2 points and shutdouts are 3, so a shutout win was a total of 5. Smith resulted in 100 points and I know this cause he was on my team. He was 3rd in points overall for goalies in my pool, with Lundqvist at 1st with 102 and Rinne in 2nd with 101. But as someone else pointed out, Smith did have a banner year and it's hard to suggest he'll match his 38 wins and 8 shutouts from last year on a team who didn't get any better and doesn't look to be getting better, but then again, who knows.
In full comparison, my other players record a point per goal and assist and a point for a ppp. You can see I don't use the other options for points at all, so PIMs, +/-, etc don't even factor in. It's a strategy I've odopted in my league and my fellow GM's like it a lot, as it forces you to ensure you pick players who are known point producers AND get a lot of Power Play time, In that regard, Lucic had 72 points, Pavelski had 79. While Ehrhoff had 43 points. So in my pool the combo on Ehr and Smith collect 143 points, while Lucic and Pav get 151.
Smith will more than likely decline somewhat and it's not hard to see him finish somewhere in the 75 to 90 point range in my pool next year and yes, Ehrhoff should only go up as he had a very bad year, so I'd think somewhere in the 50 to 60 maybe. And I'd guess the combo of Lucic and Pav would be a + or - of 10 points max in either direction. This basically just ends up being a wash as you can see. Then again, if your pool includes +/- and PIM's, I'd say Lucic and Pavelski would both end up with more points due to the style of game they play.
So that may have just confused you but it shows how important it is to mention the type of pool you play in. Cheers
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