Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
I wanted to get an opinion on a trade I might do. Id give John carlson (D), james van riemsdyk(lw) and w. wolski(lw) for jamie benn (lw) and nathan horton (rw). scoring categories are g,a,pts,+/-,pim,gwg,shp,ppp. am i giving to much?
Just heard today on Boston sports talk radio - Horton is getting demoted from the first line because of the fight he had on Gleason. He dropped the gloves when Gleason kept his on causing Boston a costly penalty in the 3rd last night.
Wait and watch how Horton plays on the new line before doing anything drastic.
I respect the time and effort Jay O put into his response, but honestly, the differences he's talking about are minor statistics that aren't properly evaluated especially at such an early point of the season. Unfortunately there's a huge amount of subjectivity involved in this process since there's a human factor and hockey is quite the chaotic game with lots of intricate complexity. Regardless, his methodology has plenty of merit.
If I were you, I would hold onto JVR. The Flyers are playing great together, and I don't expect JVR to struggle with a guy like Jagr on his line.
Try dumping Carlson and Wolski for Benn. Doubt that will go through, but Benn is worth the pickup. Lots of ice-time, good talent around him, and he's seeing a high amount of PP time. Kid has skill, and personally find him worth the effort.
- 1 Reply to Warren
Warren, I did look at the other stats and the true difference in this equation is in SOGs and blocks, with Carlson being the difference maker. One things for sure Carlson shouldn't waste his time taking so many shots, his chance of success is terrible.
There is a 20 point differential in plus minus between the two groups and a FA defenseman making up that difference is a challenge but doable. Same for hits where the trio has a 30 hit advantage, also a stat that is attainable in a free agent Dman.
The real challenge will be in Blocks where Wolski and Horton are total wusses and Benn dominates Riemsdyk - however the 160 blocks Carlson brings to the table is a huge number to overcome. At the very least a free agent Dan could help bridge that gap but is unlikely to make up the difference in its entirety.
One are where the duo dominates is in the sin bin with the two guys providing a 30 point edge in team toughness - add in the muscle that a hard hitting FA Dman would provide and it might be a reasonable trade off for diminished blocks.
The final consideration is the huge edge that Carlson, Wolski and Riemsdyk have in shots - almost 100 more on the twine. Surprisingly Carlson shoots way more than Wolski - sadly he only manages to gain a goal about half as often.
There are not a lot of hard hitting, shot blocking, puck hurling Dman in the league but the trio's shot combined shot percentage is horrendous. And in a league that's measured in inches I would rather have players that are more likely to succeed in situational play than to rely on the occasional contribution on the score sheet.
My earlier post didn't include stuff because all I wanted to say was subjective comments have little value because you need to look a little deeper to asses the merits of an individuals play. Besides, folks need to do their own homework.
In closing most of us are astute hockey fans but to many people make decisions based on emotional responses and "gut" feelings when in reality all the information needed to figure out what will most likely occur is easily available. None of us can predict injury or human nature but what we can do, based on current and historical information, is determine the realm of probability and with that we can gain an "edge" over or competitors.
I love how folks always have subjective opinions and choose the flimsiest of observation to base there recommendations.
To say Horton is on the top line is an easy assumption, he's a decent enough player and when he the golden ensconced "B" the expectations are high of him, but in reality he is just one of the top six and is actually at the low end of that scale.
Considering Bergeron, Marchand and Peverly get the lion's share of the minutes - each averaging over 1:30 seconds more than Horton's 16:16 per game. Horton is 6th and Lucic, with playing 2 seconds less per game on Boston.
Co-incidentally Lucic averages 18 seconds per game more powerplay time than Horton - who is in this instance 7th in PP TOI averages so far this season. Both Lucic and Horton play substantially less PP time than 5 forwards that see the ice the most with the man advantage. At an average of 2 seconds per game, Horton's shorthanded contributions are non existent, where as the players who are clearly the top 3 forwards shorthanded contributions are measured in minutes.
Granted Horton is currently 5th in points in Boston's line up - but at 2 points in 6 games and an average of 0.33 points per game, its a very low contribution considering the minutes he plays. And it is exactly have of last season.s 0.66 points per game.
To also call Jamie Benn a "top guy" and stud is also a bit of a stretch. I can't speak of his personal life in Dallas, but his hockey to date shows he still has some velvet on his antlers. His 5 points have him tied for the lead with Steve Ott and is a very respectable number of tallies to have in the six games played so far this season. I know Ribereo has 5 helpers as well - but that places him in second in points for the Stars.
Benn is currently scoring at 0.02 points per game more than last season meaning an increase of just over a point and a half on the ledger if he manages that for all 82 games, giving him a whopping 57 - 58 points on the season. For Benn to reach the 70 point preseason predictions he would need to see over a 0.10 PGA increase and not the 0.02 he is currently enjoying. Although 55 - 60 points is respectable, it hardly placing him in the "stud" category that the top 25 scorers in the league get saddled with. He's more comfortable in the company of the 50th overall.
Sure Jamie is capable of doing more this season in an expanded roll in Dallas. Except his roll hasn't expanded to include top line minutes in terms of time on ice, in fact he is playing 0:16 seconds less per game so far this season.
If, from a fantasy hockey perspective, more playing responsibility includes a reduction in powerplay time by 0:45 seconds (almost a 3rd less time) and an increase of defensive time shorthanded by almost a minute then its a boon. But in reality our hockey pools are not biased to reward great defensive play - the only saving grace is last season Benn was one of the league leaders in shorthanded points - but to think that doubling his ice time when 4 on 5 would also double his SHP is a bit of a stretch.
Even though he has currently matched of bettered last seasons PPGA, if Benn's TOI averages continue for the balance of the season chances are he will actually see a diminished points total.
But having said all that - I would make the trade in a heartbeat because by the end of the season with Benn and Horton in your roster and the best FA's available, more likely than not the combined total contribution of those players would be far in excess of the tally that Carlson, Reimsdyk and Wolski will produce. I would only say be realistic about the contributions of the players coming your way in the trade, they are a reliable and predictable pair - just don't expect a grand slam in production totals that other posters are hinting at, drooling over or speculating about..
Wolski is near droppable at this point.
Carlson has some upside, but if you are flush on D or can find a decent replacement then he is expendable...his ceiling is probably 40 points...some PP and +/-, but your might be able to find most of that on the wire
Also a three for two opens up a roster spot to grab someone from free agency (and I imagine you can find someone more useful then Wolski)
I would say DO IT!!