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Assuming Ovie and Crosby is gone, who would you pick 3rd overall? The league is standard rules 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D and 3 Goalies. Who would you pick 3rd overall?
Kovalchuk has played several years with Marc Savard. I'd call him a top playmaker. Even Slava Kozlov seemed to get the job done along his side. Doesn't seem to matter much with him.
For what it's worth, I would take Malkin or Luongo in the #3, and I'd only take Semin if I insisted on taking a winger in that spot. Truth is, there are probably 15 or 20 guys you could make a legit case for in the #3.
Of all of them, I think Semin's per-game stats are the best of the bunch at his position; if he ever plays 82 games, he gets 100 points at the wing, and he's suddenly in Crosby/Malkin territory. The fact that he hasn't played 82 games puts him distinctly behind those two IMHO, but his numbers are so freaking good that even his typical 65-70 games still ranks him next in line - that's why I'm willing to take on that slight injury risk. Typically, you take the 80 points in 65 games, then you replace him with somebody who gets 10 points in the remaining 17 games, and you have basically a 90-point player with ludicrous peripheral stats. Heatley is another guy you can justify as the #3 as a former 50-50, but he essentially tied Semin even though he played every game. Heater was at a point per game last year, and below that the year before, while Semin was considerably ABOVE a point-per-game for 2 straight years - so I still think Semin's the better fantasy pick.
I will agree that his success is largely due to playing the PP with the likes of Ovie, Green and Backstrom (the latter two also justifiable #3 picks) - still, Semin plays with them, while Gaborik does not, and I will rank them accordingly. If it were the reverse, then you'd be watching me make the case for Gaborik instead.
Heh, I completely forgot about Daniel Sedin, who I also think is as good as Semin.
Semin's stats are padded from playing with 2 of the best players in the league. Granted in Fantasy that's awesome but his potential is topped out, he's not going to get any better. And while I agree with the statement "There are another 5 to 10 guys at the wing I'm taking before Marleau", simply on the numbers, Marleau is right there with Semin. Except for 07-08 Marleau's been a point per game player (post lockout).
Honestly I'd take Gaborik over Semin, despite his wonky groin, if he had anywhere near as good linemates as Semin had he could be a 50-50 guy, I don't see that from Semin. But because of that groin and lack of top calibre linemates I rate him on par with Alex.
I wouldn't exactly call Heater's scoring of 1 fewer goal and having 1 less assist as not being at Semin level. If you'll note I didn't say he was better I said he was even. But where Semin's production has plateaued, I don't think anyone could deny that Heatley could do better.
Kovalchuk has never really played with a top tier playmaker, sure he's had Heater, and Hossa on the other wing, but neither are passers and that's what he's always been lacking. In NJ I think he could finaly have not only a playmaker but an opposite wing of considerable talent as well. A 50-50 season is entirely possible but you have to remember he's in NJ so another 40-40 is more likely and that again puts at the very least even, but I would choose him ahead of Alex any day, and so would most people.
But that's all academic because the question was not who's the #2 or even #3 winger in the game, it's who to pick 3rd. And that choice falls to two players, who rank ahead of all the wingers listed here. Backstrom and Stamkos and of those two Stamkos is the better choice because he scores more and has room to improve whereas I don't see Bacstrom getting other than around 100 pts again. Where he's been markedly better thank Stamkos is in the +/- cat and I think that is going to change this season.
For those reasons, I think the #3 pick of any draft should be Stamkos.
What happened to Malkin? When did Backstrom and Stamkos become 3rd and 4th??!! I mean I love those 2 they buoyed my team last year, along with Henrik, but Malkin is a beast... In mock drafts I was getting malkin 7th... Has he dropped that far? I mean this guy plays the power play with the best passer in the league (possibly barring Thornton). And he's healthy... I don't know what happened but I wanna take advantage of this.
Interesting point. You're right, LW is thinner this year, but in most leagues, there's still just enough talent to always find somebody who can do the job. Morrow, Neal, McDonald, Malone - those guys seem to be available in a lot of 12-teamers. You also have the breakout candidates like JVR, Leino, E. Kane, Comeau... there's enough talent to still opt for the "best available player" for the first few rounds.
Semin is the #1 RW on my draft sheet but LW pickings are so slim that the really good LWs are more valuable than the best RWs imo.
If you dont draft one of the 5 stud LWs in round 1 (ovy, parise, ilya, sedin, heatley) then Marleau is the best option after that and if you dont take him your probably going to be startin at least 1 scrub LW if not 2.
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in my league i took backstrom 3rd overall... i think now that ovy is gonna play a whole 82 games (last year he missed 10 games) u can basically add atleast 10 points to backstroms total... plus he has GREAT plus-minus
Depend on how many teams in your league but I would should a goaler and probably Ryan Miller.
If you think you will have a good goaler in second round, you should pick Nicklas Backstrom. Excellent for PPP, +/- and Pts.
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