Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
After hours of research, I have compiled a comprehensive list of players and have ranked them according to last season's stats on a prorated scale. There are over 450 players on the excel spreadsheet and you may filter through the lists to find how each player ranks compared to his peers. More importantly, you will be able to see how these figures will help you determine positional scarcity. Do note however that I DID NOT PRORATE goaltenders, BUT rather used PROJECTIONS for simplicity. To get your copy, please email me at email@example.com with "Request for H2H PLAYER POWER RANKINGS". You may also post your email in this thread to receive a copy, but I cannot guarantee you will get one.
The first 5 sheets, LW, C, RW, D, G include each players' stats (exported from sportsnet) during the 2008-2009 season which will be on the left. To the right, you will find how each player would have done based on a full 82 games played.
The next 5 sheets, Left, Center, Right, Defence, Goalie is where you will find each player's rankings for each stat category. On the very left, you will see the average draft number, round picked, and pick percentage, for 40-45 players taken from yahoo fantasy hockey. In the center, once again are the exported stats. To the right however, I have taken the prorated stats and ranked each player for every category against the peer group; after which I then tally up the score and divide it by the number of players in the peer group.
For example amongst Centers, Sidney Crosby is 4th in goals, 2nd in assists, 43rd in +/-, 1st in power play points, 8th in penalty minutes, 10th in shots, and 4th in faceoffs won for a total score of 72. Divided by the 100 centers being sampled, his score of 0.72 is the best amongst centers (lower number is better). Evgeni Malkin on the other hand is 5th in goals, 1st in assists, 16th in +/-, 3rd in power play points, 10th in penalty minutes, 5th in shots, and 82nd in faceoffs won for a total score of 122. Divided by the 100 centers being sampled, his score of 1.22 puts him back in 5th amongst centers. His lack of faceoff wins should be a concern if FW is a category in your pool.
The sheet called "Trial" is an amalgamation of all the prorated players and their rankings. This is a great way to find sleeper and bust picks. Of course this may not be the optimal draft order for your team, but it is however a good starting basis. Make adjustments as you see fit and feel free to play around with the figures and filters (MS excel skills are very handy). For what its worth, I have also included an "Odds" sheet which includes the NHL futures.
This spreadsheet is ideal for the following H2H league settings:
Roster Positions: C, C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, D, Util, Util, Util, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR, IR
Forwards/Defensemen Stat Categories: Goals (G), Assists (A), Plus/Minus (+/-), Penalty Minutes (PIM), Powerplay Points (PPP), Shots on Goal (SOG), Faceoffs Won (FW)
Goaltenders Stat Categories: Wins (W), Goals Against Average (GAA), Saves (SV), Save Percentage (SV%), Shutouts (SHO)
Avg Pick Avg Rd % Drafted Player POS Avg
17.7 2.0 100% Alexander Semin, Was RW 0.220
9.8 1.2 100% Mike Green, Was D 0.288288288
97.9 8.6 81% Sergei Gonchar, Pit D 0.486486486
1.2 1.0 100% Alexander Ovechkin, Was LW 0.542857143
34.0 3.3 100% Tim Thomas, Bos G 0.549019608
19.3 2.1 100% Roberto Luongo, Van G 0.647058824
7.1 1.0 100% Corey Perry, Anh RW 0.692
42.8 4.0 100% Zdeno Chara, Bos D 0.702702703
3.3 1.0 100% Sidney Crosby, Pit C 0.72
68.1 6.1 100% Marian Hossa, Chi RW 0.736
That ranking system seems to be heavily swayed by "that one weak category". And it doesn't even need to be particularly weak. The player who is ranked 110th in +/- is probably still a +4. But he gets knocked WAAAAAY down the list because of it.
- 1 Reply to Mr. Bungle
The point of head-to-head is to draft players who are efficient and can do the most damage in as many stat categories as possible. Your aim should not be to draft just the top scorers, but rather the top all round players. Too many people focus on goals, assists, and power play points, but neglect penalty in minutes, +/-, faceoff wins, and shots. People also overlook drafting goalies early, especially when their categories have substantially weight. Elite goalies are few and far between, so scooping them early puts your opponents at a big disadvantage since you've locked up your goalie categories for the rest of the season while they are left scrambling.
In my spreadsheet, I have added some mockdrafts and backtested them against other opponents. On paper, they hold up very well. I know that prorating past data will not hold the key to the future, but as evidence, it is more accurate than pure speculation.
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