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  • stick stick Jan 28, 2008 12:43 PM Flag

    Worth it for Luongo?

    I give up S Horcoff, P Kane and C Ward and I get Luongo.

    H2H league - I have a lot of offense: Alfredson, Malkin, Getlaf, Briere, Hartnell, Havlet, Demitra, (and Phaneuf and Rafalski).

    Goalies currently are: M Turco, R Miller and C Ward.

    Whattya guys think?

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    • I'd do it. Although I'd prefer to have a second player headed my way in that deal. If not not, oh well. Like you said; you have offense to spare. Also I can't understand why anyone still has Demitra.

    • Very entertaining to read all this guys. But I disagree with Jay-O in the sense that his goaltending is weak enough where if he doesnt improve it soon, he has no chance of winning this year. And i dont see how offering Horcoff, Kane and Ward is nearly enough for Luongo. You yourself said C is a deep position, so why would the guy with Luongo want a 2nd tier center? If you are serious about getting Luo then you have to up the ante and throw in one of your top 3 players --- either malkin, getz or alfie plus one of your goalies. And if that doesnt get it done, walk away, because (and this is where we agree Jay-O) decimating your team's depth will only negate any benefit you get from obtaining Luo.

      Personally aim lower (which has already been stated) and try for a lower first tier goalie or high 2nd tier goalie. Guys like Legace, Bryzgalov, Giguere, Kipper, Gerber, Osgood, Dipi will come cheaper for you and are all upgrades over Ward.

      And most importantly, read your own post, lol.

      • 1 Reply to Troy
      • Wow, never thought I'd induce such a response from you all, but thanks for your thoughts.

        Here's the low down: I took the trade.
        I got R Luongo(G) and R Lang(C) (and picked up Selanne as a FA)
        I gave up S Horcoff (C), P Kane (RW) and C Ward (G)

        Here?s why I wanted Luongo: This is a 10 man H2H league where 6 categories are offensive and 4 are goaltending?including W, SV%, GAA and SHO. Granted it?s on a week to week basis, so cumulative stats mean nothing, but I have a dominant edge over the entire league in nearly all offensive stats. I can afford to loose a little production and still win most categories. However, because of sub par goaltending?namely C Ward. I have been very inconsistent with goaltending stats and loosing 3 of 4 categories all too often. I?m sitting in 2nd with a good chance to stay there or take over first and get that first round bye. So I?m pretty much in the playoffs but I cannot afford a terrible goaltending week first thing when I get there, there?s no room for a 5-4 loss in the playoffs. Luongo will be on a team fighting for playoff positioning and should be solid down the stretch.

        Obviously I knew going for Luongo would cost me somthing of value; hence dealing Horcoff came with the territory. However the FA pool of centers is much deeper than any other position. Filling most of that hole with "the flavor of the month" should be attainable. I have confidence in my ability to pick the right FA at the right time...and part ways before they?ve wasted too much of my time. R Lang (C) was more of a throw in as I'll likely ditch him shortly for someone on a hot streak.

        I was hoping not to give up Kane as well, I do like this player. I was pushing for him to take Havlet instead but that?s tough sell. However, on my way home I learned Teemu Selanne was coming out of retirement officially. Luckily he was still a FA when I got home but I did not have a roster space for him. I decided to bite the bullet, take the 3-for-2 trade, open a roster spot and pick up Selanne. He's a RW and should come close too, if not exceed the production of Kane.

        So essentially I got Luongo, a huge improvement over Ward. Selanne, which should be comparable to Kane. And then an open roster spot to play with when I can rotate with whatever FA I choose. Its 10 man league so there is plenty of talent sitting out there. All in all I think it will work out well for me.

    • I think it's funny how some people post things on the board and then don't bother to check back and/or contribute to the discussion. Of course, we did digress a bit on this one....

    • Whaddya think, Sticks6006? You've been awfully quiet through all this.

    • I don't think we know what type of league Sticks6006 is in, do we? In that case we are both talking out of our rear-ends. Perhaps his league weights goalie stats heavily. Perhaps it is a roto league where .005 in SV% can make the difference between first and last place in that category. Therefore we cannot say that wins are worth the most points, can we?

      And as far as considering the other GM's perspective and the problems that he would encounter in accepting a particular trade, this is crucial to successful trading. And part of this is considering who he would have to drop in order to make room for the extra players in a 3-for-1 deal. True, Sticks6006 only asked "Whaddya guys think?", which you may understand as seeking "our wisdom to help define the boundaries and limitations on what may work for his existing team", while I would prefer to look at the bigger picture, which includes the other GM's perspective and the potential problems a deal like that would cause for his roster. More importantly, however, for the sake of Sticks6006, we must consider the available FA to fill the holes left by a departing Horcoff and Kane. Presumably Sticks6006 has his eyes on a couple of FA to fill his holes, otherwise why would he even consider giving up his depth players. I do think that guys like Horcoff and Kane (guys who will finish with 65-70 points) are expendable, as their points can easily be made up by grabbing some "flavor-of-the-month" out of the FA pool while he's hot. Of course there are mitigating factors here as well, including limits on roster moves, depth etc. but usually there are a handful of Lupul's and Umberger's and Hartnell's out there just waiting to be picked up and exploited.

      I do agree though, going after a guy like Luongo at this point will probably end up costing him more than it's worth to him, although we don't really know that without knowing the details. Like I said earlier, a .005 difference in SV% in a roto league could be all he is looking for. Whether or not Luongo is the answer, however, is debatable.

      As far as your logarithmic analysis of a goalies value, it is true that goalies are generally worth more than any other player in fantasy hockey, as there only a handful of elite and second-tier starting goalies. Also, many leagues have 4 categories for goalies alone, whereas skaters will have only 6 or so. So it is entirely reasonable to expect that an elite goalie will cost you a top-20 forward and a top-10 d-man. While this is not how you or I would build our teams, this is the fantasy hockey market, like it or not. That's why I drafted Luongo in the first round. Then I don't have to trade anyone for him.

      Yes, Jay O, we are generally in agreement here, though I like to think that I can remove my rose tinged glasses at any time, to see with perfect clarity.

    • Nah, I think your giving up too much. Luongo is great, one of the greatest in the league if not THE greatest, but giving up Kane and a decent goalie in Cam Ward is not worth it to me. I would reject it.

    • PS: The discussion is not about Loungo's value but whether he is worth it to this GM.

    • Bonchprof, if you took the time to re-read my initial post to Sticks6006, and as you have obviously read my posts elsewhere, you would know that I arrived at and have generally stated that its too rich a deal because it guts the core of his bench depth.

      Whether the other GM see's it as a 3-1 deal or "essentially" a 3-3 deal and how it effects his roster is his problem, the problem we have at hand is whether its a prudent decision by Sticks6006 to put forth or act upon this deal in the first place. He sought our wisdom to help define the boundaries and limitations on what may work for his existing team, we should be isolating and analyzing the merits of his objectives not telling Sticks6006 that he has to spend x amount to achieve them.

      In my opinion any deal for Loungo with so little left in the season is not worth it if it completely depletes your roster, because the guy's the other GM dump's aren't going to be nearly as good as what's currently in the pool, otherwise they would be in his roster.

      Of course I consider save percentages, SOG's and other stats in my assessments but wins are what bring in the big points and that is the category that should be considered most and have the largest weight and measure on a decision. It also in general instantly reflects how well a goalie is performing because decent goals against and save percentages usually walk hand in hand with number of wins - but at the end of the day the peripherals hardly matter as long as your goalie has stopped one more goal than the other guy's.

      Sticks6006 put forth a list of players he is willing to trade - I simply responded with a line-up that wouldn't deplete his roster and might "hoodwink" the other GM into at least considering the deal. In reality I think that all parties will probably agree that it will take a significant amount more than Sticks6006 is at this time willing to offer and if the truth be-told, looking at his roster - he probably can't really afford to trade for Loungo and should just retain what he has.

      Sticks6006 could use a better goalie than what he currently has and maybe should set his sights on someone more affordable and in line with what he has to offer. If he wants a goalie who is currently struggling (like Roberto) then perhaps Gerber is a better choice - his team strength even without Heatley is undeniably strong and they will rally. Or maybe Osgood might be a good alternative now that his starts are down. Even the much maligned Leclaire who seems to be maintaining a pace on par with the lower tiers of the upper echelon and might be had for what Sticks is willing to offer.

      There seems to be this unerring formula that I have noticed on Yahoo, for every 5% increase above 45% wins in a net-mnders performance their is a 15% logarithmic increase in the value of forwards and defencemen expected in return. So a guy who can't knit you a pair of socks at 40% is miraculously worth a second line forward and a top 25 d-man at 45%, come 50% it's a top 50 forward and top 20 D, 55% = Top 25 forward, Top 10 D man and the loss of common sense. Hence Broduer at 65% is a healthy Crosby, Dion Phanuef and thank you very much for letting me date your sister - here's the bill for dinner and champagne we had and by the way we tipped the waiter and limo driver a hundred each.

      We basically as usual agree, we just are looking at it from different perspectives. Mine is warped and twisted and yours Bonchprof is through rose tinged glasses.

    • I actually traded Zetterberg away for Luongo. I was so desparate for a goalie at the time. I actually traded three players for Luongo and two other players. So, I say you need other players too. Don't give him a 3 for 1 deal, thats just stupid. No player is worth three players.

    • i agree with steve

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