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Again very good stuff Richard - the only point I would contend is that actually the 2 has more "checkers or wreckers" to go for than the 24. Even though BK's not mathematically in the Chase, for all intents and purposes he's going to be in the Top 10 so whether he finishes 2nd or 42nd doesn't really matter; he needs the W to pad his bonus points.
JG otoh needs the win, but is also in a points battle for the 2nd wild card if no one else gets 2 wins, so if he's not in direct contention at the end, he still has the incentive to finish high, and won't (shouldn't) take any crazy chances.
BTW as they said on The Morning Drive a few weeks ago, whoever came up with the current Chase format deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for, uh, Points Systems :-) - these past 2 seasons have produced some awesome drama for who's in and who needs to win :-D
That's what I get for a fuzzy memory and being too lazy to check the stats beforehand. LOL
With Brad in 7th with 3 wins and 44 points ahead of 10th place Stewart. All he needs IMO are decent finishes. Another W only gives him a lead starting the chase over JJ, Hamlin and Stewart, assuming that Stewart makes the chase on points and not as a WC.
Kahne is in position with a strong finish if Tony has a mishap to take Tony out and make him a WC. Thus I am sure a part of Tony's frustration at Bristol.
Excellent point regarding JG, I completely missed / did not consider it.