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As I said earlier today: Advise is a very dangerous thing.
In P1: Brad 4th; Gordon 22nd. Brad's speed was reflective of Q trim, Gordon's speed was indicative of R trim.
Q: Gordon jumped to 5th, Brad down to 21st.
P2: Gordon 6th, Brad 10th.
P3: Gordon 2nd, Brad 6th.
You might also consider your remaining starts.
*IF* I had your lineup, I would probably start Gordon. OTOH, Gordon needs a W within these next two races. Thus, while not truly a wreckers of checkers kind of guy, Gordon has indicated that he is looking to push for that W.
Brad doesn't need a W and his performance yesterday of placing 2nd in the NNS race was good. Thus, making Brad also a good pick IMO. Perhaps the "safer" of the two.
BTW: My A drivers are 48 and 99 with the 48 on the bench currently.
As for your B picks. The MWR cars have all been fairly strong this year.
P1; Q; P2; P3 respectively
9: 20th; 10th; 13th; 25th
15: 6th; 30th; 5th; 11th
55: 30th; 6th; 19th; 9th
56: 1st; 28th; 4th; 8th
Ambrose needs a W, but if we look at overall consistency above, he does not stand out IMO. If RPM / Ambrose can hit the setup this week, they will be a force to be reckoned with and I foresee a top 6 finish from Ambrose barring incident. OTOH, If they struggle chasing the setup from day into night and don't keep up with the changing conditions, you are looking at a 15th to 20th finish IMO.
Mark Martin has been strong most of the year barring incident, but not the most consistent IMO. Personally, I am questioning his confidence level after MIS. He did Q good. Though I personally place him as top 15 for this race.
The 15 and the 56 were both consistently good in P. While they both struggled in Q, I place them both as top 10's this week barring incident. Both are in the chase, neither needs a W. I expect them both to finish well without pushing the issue and thus hopefully staying out of trouble.
See my other reply for more info regarding Hendrick / Gordon and my own picks.
Hope this helps, but remember, this is only my ***opinion***.
Again very good stuff Richard - the only point I would contend is that actually the 2 has more "checkers or wreckers" to go for than the 24. Even though BK's not mathematically in the Chase, for all intents and purposes he's going to be in the Top 10 so whether he finishes 2nd or 42nd doesn't really matter; he needs the W to pad his bonus points.
JG otoh needs the win, but is also in a points battle for the 2nd wild card if no one else gets 2 wins, so if he's not in direct contention at the end, he still has the incentive to finish high, and won't (shouldn't) take any crazy chances.
- 2 Replies to Cliff
BTW as they said on The Morning Drive a few weeks ago, whoever came up with the current Chase format deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for, uh, Points Systems :-) - these past 2 seasons have produced some awesome drama for who's in and who needs to win :-D
That's what I get for a fuzzy memory and being too lazy to check the stats beforehand. LOL
With Brad in 7th with 3 wins and 44 points ahead of 10th place Stewart. All he needs IMO are decent finishes. Another W only gives him a lead starting the chase over JJ, Hamlin and Stewart, assuming that Stewart makes the chase on points and not as a WC.
Kahne is in position with a strong finish if Tony has a mishap to take Tony out and make him a WC. Thus I am sure a part of Tony's frustration at Bristol.
Excellent point regarding JG, I completely missed / did not consider it.
- 1 Reply to Da Goat®
Hey Goat, all I did was crunch some numbers. That's easy. It's the politican that I suck at and am not in tune with. Heck, I quit what would probably have been that best job I would have ever had cause of all the politican involved with it.
However, I always enjoy your posts and your insight Goat!