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  • CWizzle CWizzle Apr 13, 2014 6:45 PM Flag

    Predictions/Guesses for Nerlens Noel?

    I know at this point it is all purely guessing, but just for the fun of it, I was wondering what people think Noel is going to be like next season, assuming he starts off and stays healthy.
    I honestly think he will be a good, but not elite fantasy player. Good for mainly rebs, blocks and steals. I know they are trying to teach him a go-to post move but I think most of his points are going to come off offensive rebounds and as a last resort if the other offense breaks down. I think he has potential to improve his offensive game, but I'm not expecting 18PPG or anything next season.
    My totally and complete guess for him, assuming he gets minutes and is healthy would be in the general range of:
    54% FG's
    60% FT's
    9 PTS, 9 REBS, 1 AST, 1.6 STL and 1.8 BLK
    Which would be very useful numbers for either a team punting FT%, or if he keeps his FT attempts down enough to not competely wreck your team.

    Anyone else with even bolder predictions? Anyone think he'll flop and avearge 2 pts and 2 rebs with .5 blocks per game? Or anyone think he'll be a walking 20-20 guy, or lead the league with 4 blocks per game!!?
    JUUUST curious.

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    • Thanks for the replies Dillon and Steve. I like your analysis too. As far as my guess for his steals go, I just like his length and think that could lead to some outright steals when people try to pass into the paint. I know you can't translate college stats to the pros, but he did average of 2 per game at Kentucky. And I'd have to see him on the court more to judge whether my guess for his assists are low or not. I haven't really seen him as much of a passer, but I guess it depends on what style Phili plays next season. As of right now I don't think they have enough outside shooting threats to play inside out a la Howard in Orlando, and that would be his best bet for assists in my opinion.
      I upped his FT% compared to college a little because I feel like he has to improve a LITTLE while taking an entire year off and having coaches help him out at the professional level, but who knows if that will translate or not lol.
      Steve- I like the Brandan Wright comparison as a base line, but with Noel having WAY more upside. I'm a HUGE Tar heels fan (as I'm guessing you are from your logo) and actually just got back from a 2 week trip to N.C. where I definitely visited the basketball museum at the Dean Dome. I go every time I go to NC and it's always fun. I honestly think Wright would be a VERY solid NBA center if he was a starter for all 82 games. Personally as a C's fan, I'd like to see him in a Boston uniform.

      • 2 Replies to CWizzle
      • Sweet on the Dean Dome visit. I live about 90 minutes se of there. Ok, I really havent seen much of Noel so Im probably off, but from what I saw, he doesnt have a back-to-the-basket game, so the reason I think Noel could get more assists is simply because of my perception of some highlights. His points looked to all come from running the lane and putbacks. I doubt he will have such free reign in The NBA. I did see some nifty passing from him, though, which I think could be used when MCW passes in to him as a decoy and then back to MCW for the splash. As for the steals part, I think he could disrupt some stuff that may lead to a fumbled ball or a steal for someone else. The NBA has less careless players, so I dont think the jumping out to pick a pass type thing will much be in Noels future. Are you taking a speculation pick on him? If so, what round?

      • Big man, first year in the league, likes to block, sloppy offense means he's gonna be racking up fouls and will likely be hesitant to reach for steals all that often. Also, the NBA just has better ball handlers than in college. A big guy like him in the lane in college might force some turnovers, once he's running with the big boys he might not be so intimidating. That's my basic thinking behind why I think he's not gonna be pulling in as many steals as you expect, I hope he proves me wrong though.

    • I would say your numbers are very good guesses. I would probably take the steals down to 1 or less per game and expect his FT% to be closer to 55%. His offense is pretty shabby by most accounts. I'd say he projects to put up a healthy JaVale McGee kind of numbers as his ceiling, but, you know, less of a moron. Worst case scenario, he puts up Bismack Biyombo kind of numbers, but he has to have better offense than Bismack, that dude is abysmal at putting the ball in the hoop.

    • I liken him to Brandan Wright but, of course, will put up better numbers because of consistent pt. I predict similar numbers to what you predict except for maybe a bit more assists and less steals. There may be alot of in-out to MCW and Young this next season.

 

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