• Commissioner Corner Message Board

  • Higo Higo Apr 6, 2013 4:39 AM Flag

    Your original baseball metric

    When I was watching a game between the Reds and Nationals, won by the Reds on 15-0, I came up with below metric and am hoping it could be a really good one and there has not been a similar one in the past.

    I would like to share it with you, and get a feedback from you.

    Also let's exchange your original baseball metric here so someday someone like Bill James, Billy Beane or Michael Lewis could possibly find it!

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    Most of current batting stats don’t consider the quality of a pitcher or the tightness of a game when a hit is produced, and as a result they put equal importance for a hit from best pitchers like Verlander or Darvish, or the one from decent pitchers who should be in the minor.

    RBI is said to be one of batting stats that least reflects a batter’s actual ability to produce runs because it is largely dependent on a situation.

    The value of each RBI should have a significant difference depending on which occasion those RBIs are earned. For example, one RBI earned on a 1-0 game should have a much bigger importance to a winning team than the one scored on a 10-0 game. RBI is the score that you simply add up all runs earned by a single player in a season, so it doesn’t give a consideration of the situation that each of those scores is produced.

    I came up with a stat called RBI with CFW(Contribution for a Win) shown below, and it could resolve the problem by taking consideration of the differences in the situations.

    RBI with CFW(10 points maximum that could be earned by a player in a single game)
    =(10/Run difference in a game)*(Player's RBI in a game/Team's total RBI in a game)

    (Situation 1)
    On a 1-0 game, Player A scored sole RBI for a game won

    RBI with CFW earned by player A
    =(10/1-0)*(1/1)=10

    So player A earned 10 RBI with CFW, which is the maximum that could be earned in a single game.

    (Situation 2)
    On a 10-5 game, Player A scored 2 RBIs, Player B scored 3, and Player C scored 5 for a game won

    RBI with CFW earned by player A
    =(10/10-5)*(2/10)=0.4

    RBI with CFW earned by player B
    =(10/10-5)*(3/10)=0.6

    RBI with CFW earned by player C
    =(10/10-5)*(5/10)=1

    (Situation 3)
    On a 10-9 game, Player A scored 2 RBIs, Player B scored 3, Player C scored 5 for a game won

    RBI with CFW earned by player A
    =(10/10-9)*(2/10)=2

    RBI with CFW earned by player B
    =(10/10-9)*(3/10)=3

    RBI with CFW earned by player C
    =(10/10-9)*(5/10)=5

    There is one possible flow with this equation that it can be only applied to winning situations so it is possible that a good hitter can earn low RBI with CFW if he belongs to a bad team. But it is still useful when considering only games won and coming up with some kind of an average figure on a game by game basis.

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    • Higo,

      If you want to take into account the "value of each RBI should have a significant difference depending on which occasion those RBIs are earned" then this does not do it.

      The RBI with CFW results are the same regardless of the RBI occurring when the team is down by 4 or up by 4. If

      The RBI with CFW results are the same regardless of the RBI occurring in the first inning or the later innings.

      You mentioned that that the one possible flaw is that the equation can only be applied to winning teams but that is only part of the story. The real flaw in that is the evaluation of a player can only come after the game is over. Albert Pujols comes up in the first inning with two men on. What would Pujol's season RBI with CFW stat tell us? Nothing, because until the game is over we do not even know if what he does in this at bat would count for RBI with CFW. He could hit a home run getting three RBI but if the Angels lose 5-3 he might as well of struck out as far as RBI with CFW goes.

      These reasons make the RBI with CFW stat not as useful as you might think it is.

      I applaud your effort but you wanted feedback so I gave it.

      Clayton

      • 1 Reply to Frostbite
      • Clayton,

        It is really good to know someone actually went through my thought and gave it a feedback.

        You are right that RBI with CFW doesn’t show most updated figure during a game, and I think that even a finalized number could not be obtained after a season is over.

        But if you would pick up wins as the only contributing factor among other things when reviewing a season, I still believe the RBI with CFW could be a good indicator for each player’s contribution to his team for wins.

        I didn’t do the actual calculation, but a player who earns 1 RBI for five 1-0 games should have much better RBI with CFW than a player who earns 1 RBI for five 10-0 games even though these two players have exactly the same RBI in current environment.

        I was a little bit bothered when I was watching the players seem saying like “It’s a payday, baby! Earn it as much as you can while you can!” in the 15-0 game, and I wanted to come up with a good metric that values runs earned in tighter games.

        HG