Commissioner Corner Message Board
Based on the comments I've recieved on my last post I've decided to revise my list.
1) Stephen Strasburg (Was-SP)
2) Jason Heyward (Atl-RF)
3) Mike Stanton (Fla-RF)
4) Buster Posey (SF-C)
5) Aroldis Chapman (N/A-SP)
6) Jesus Montero (NYY-C)
7) Madison Bumgarner (SF-SP)
8) Pedro Alvarez (Pit-3B)
9) Justin Smoak (Tex-1B)
10) Carlos Santana (Cle-C)
11) Alcides Escobar (Mil-SS)
12) Jarrod Parker (Ari-SP)
13) Dustin Ackley (Sea-1B)
14) Yonder Alonso (Cin-1B)
15) Freddie Freeman (Atl-1B)
16) Dominic Brown (Phi-RF)
17) Martin Perez (Tex-SP)
18) Logan Morrison (Fla-1B)
19) Desmond Jennings (TB-CF)
20) Casey Kelly (Bos-SP/SS)
21) Brett Wallace (Oak-3B)
22) Tim Beckham (TB-SS)
23) Jason Castro (Hou-C)
24) Kyle Drabek (Phi-SP)
25) Josh Vitters (Chc-3B)
26) Christian Friedrich (Col-SP)
27) Chris Carter (Oak-1B)
28) Jeremy Hellickson (TB-SP)
29) Austin Jackson (NYY-CF)
30) Micheal Taylor (Phi-RF)
Let me know if you think i missed someone, someone is too high, or someone is too low
" As soon as he gets a starting gig, he's going to be a top50 fantasy player as he's going to give you figgins numbers at 2b (compare that to someone like Heyward who has a higher upside but might take a few years to crack top50)"
whhhhooooaaaa there big fella. EY Jr. is going to be top 50 as soon as he gets a gig? That's jumping the gun a little bit....
To me it doesn't make sense how someone would think fantasy talent and regular talent are the same. They are often close, but they are not equal. I guess I should be happy if people think fantasy prospect lists and regular prospect lists are the same. It helps me win leagues. Ellsbury is actual a prime example, not a bad one. He was ranked 35 in 2007 (way too low, should have been much higher). By the time he was ranked 15 by BA in 2008 (still too low), he was already taken in every keeper because guess what - he was called up in 2007. If you had simply thought he was a 35-rank guy in 2007 when he was called up, you might have missed out on him. But if you had a fantasy prospect list instead of BA, and you would have nabbed him for sure (like I did). If you think fantasy value and real baseball values are the same, you are missing out on a lot. Maybe not on the top couple prospects (heyward and strasburg are going to be valuable in every format), but after that there can be significant differences.
But, I guess if you think they are the same, why bother to prepare a list? BA already has professionals that do that. Why would you think you can do it better? I happen to think the one that's interesting that we can do is the fantasy one, but I'd trust BA, etc. to do the regular one.
That really makes no sense to seperate a "regular prospect list" and a "fantasy prospect list"...either way you should list the prospects with the most potential to be top notch players...everyone of the players i have on that list should make a good fantasy impact and others that were left off probably wont have as much value in the future simply because they are not as good. As for you're Ellsbury comment that was a bad comparison considering he was in the top 35 in 2007 and was in the top 15 in 2008 according to BA...he was always considered to be a top prospect with huge base stealing upside and an amazing glove in CF...although EY jr has virtually the same speed upside he doesnt hav a good enough bat to stay in the leadoff spot and isnt good enough defensively to maintain 2B...he is looked at as an OF in the future which really brings along the comparison of Juan Pierre with less hits...all together what I'm trying to tell you is that this list is just as valuable as a "Fantasy Prospect list". All of the best players with the best chance to become big time players are listed here and thats really all that you need to know
As it relates to fantasy, a lot of those guys will be valuable, but a regular prospect list and a fantasy one are two different things. A regular prospect list is going to miss some fantasy prospects, so it's incomplete for fantasy purposes. Baseball talent does not equal fantasy talent. Is it often close, but you are missing out on a lot if you assume they are equal. As an example, ellsbury was ranked as a prospect, but if you just used his regular prospect ranking he was significantly underranked for fantasy purposes because his speed was so obvious and fantasy values speed a lot more than regular baseball.
If this isn't a fantasy list, i don't see the point i guess. I can google regular prospect list put together by professionals. As a fantasy baller, I want a fantasy list not a regular one.
so the players that have the most talent and upside arent the players that make it to the top 50 in fantasy? these prospects have the most talent and potential therefore making them the most valuable for fantasy baseball albeit might not be in 2010. However in the long run these are the players that people should keep an eye out for as they will be the future...some guys might sneak in there under the radar and become top players but how often does that happen?
a prospect list is helpful, but a regular prospect list is not as useful as a fantasy prospect list. BA, etc. base their lists on scouts reviews for real baseball players. Fantasy performance is sometimes quite different than real baseball (speed guys for instance). So for instance, EY Jr is a mediocre prospect for real baseball, but a far better prospect for fantasy baseball (cause steals count so much), so if you use the scout's list (based on real baseball) he is vastly mis-ranked and you miss out on a very high (fantasy) upside guy.
The reason a regular prospect list based on real baseball isn't that interesting is because BA, etc. already make that list. I don't think we're going to really improve on what professional scouts do. But where we can actually make a list with some value added is fantasy prospects list. EY Jr is just one example of a guy that's not going to be on any top whatever lists for regular scouts but should very much be on the lists for us fantasy scouts. As soon as he gets a starting gig, he's going to be a top50 fantasy player as he's going to give you figgins numbers at 2b (compare that to someone like Heyward who has a higher upside but might take a few years to crack top50). If we have a list like that, while everyone else is out looking at BA, etc., we'll have a real advantage knowing all the guys with fantasy talents the regular scouts didn't rank.
Well Tim as a fantasy player I know that all of the best managers that I have ever seen have a full grasp of the best talent out there in the minor league system. To say a list like this does not belong on a fantasy board makes absolutely no sense. As you said yourself, for people who are in keeper/dynasty leagues, having of knowledge of the top talent coming up is essential to building a successful franchise. Every single one of these prospects have a chance of being stars in the future, therefore as fantasy owners, we should all know who these players are, what position they play, what team they play for, and how much potential they truely have. Including players such as Eric Young Jr., who has not even made a Top 100 list by BA, a Top 20 list of each minor league level, and didnt even make the Rockies top 10 prospect list, would be rediculous. This list was based off of scouts opinions that I have thoroughly followed on Baseballamerica.com, MiLB.com, MLB.com, Baseballprospectus.com,aswell as my opinion, and the opinions of other prospect educated individuals. As someone who has had success for years in building my dynasty teams through prospects and up and coming stars, I would have to say that a list like this most deffinitely belongs on a fantasy baseball message board.
I would also like to add that now that Jarrod Parker is undergoing Tommy John Sugery he is unfortunately going to drop on many Prospect list, including mine....Although i havent thoroughly thought about it, I would believe that he now belongs in the high 20s
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