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  • Nicholas Nicholas May 2, 2011 10:07 AM Flag

    Lohse vs. Fla

    Contemplating starting Lohse vs FLA at St. Louis. Thoughts? I picked him up and he's done well for me. But FLA has been producing offense this year and Lohse will likely go back to mundane career stats sooner than later.

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    • Ride the hot streak.

    • I'm starting him. Here's my reasoning:
      1) Fla's offense is right at the 50% mark for the MLB this season (counting runs scored). Not bad, but not great. They've been winning on the strength of their defense, which has been at the 80% mark (counting runs against). St. Louis, on the other hand, is the highest scoring team in the MLB right now. All this to say (simplistic analysis aside), I take the Cards over the Marlins right now.

      2) When a player is on a hot streak, I prefer to ride it until it ends, rather than try to predict the peak and avoid the drop. When you start second guessing your players who are punching above their weight, often enough you'll wind up missing some great performances and then putting them back in for their failures. Just ride them out and keep them on a short leash. One bad start will be enough for me to sit Lohse until he gets a favorable match up, a few in a row will be enough for me to drop him, but for now I'm in.

      He's pitching well, he'll regress, but your best bet is to ride him for all he's worth for as long as he's worth something.

 

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