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I don't see much evidence for an increase in K%. He never struck out much in the minors. Also you left out the fact that he could very well see an increase in BB% as his rate during the season didn't reflect his minor league rates.
I'm not sure what you are trying to prove here. It is much easier to say Santana is underrated than to say that one of the most valuable players in baseball today is overrated.
it is fact. when a players ascends to a higher level, his K% rises. Posey's went down. The scouting reports are going around and he will feel what people refer to as the "sophomore slump". it's in the percentages. do the math instead of being a momo
- 2 Replies to Million Dollar Sleeper
I agree that we can see an uptick with his K% but not at a level where it will be a detriment to his game or batting average as you said earlier. The league average K% is roughly 20%. Posey could easily be under 20% next year.
Not every player has a sophomore slump. For someone that follows percentages as much as you say you do it should be obvious that many players do not suffer from a sophomore slump. Studies from places like Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Time have come up with evidence for the cliche that is the sophomore slump, but it far from a certainty. Since 2000 we have seen players like Pujols, Braun, Pedroia, Longoria, Ramirez, Howard and others avoid the slump while in the meantime guys like Crosby, Coghlan, Soto and Willis couldn't avoid them.
The truth is that Buster Posey's value will always be greater in reality than fantasy. That should be obvious.
His track record in the minors showcased a player who could hit for average (.333), walk at an above average rate (13.1%), limit strike outs (13.6%), and hit for above average power relative to his position (.209 ISO).
Most projection systems including ZIPS and Bill James have Posey hitting around .300, with around 150-160 runs+rbi's, around 20 homers, and 1-2 steals.
So once again I agree with you, Santana is the better pick up and in fantasy Posey is being overrated. He is, however, one of the most valuable young players in baseball.