General Message Board
No, he doesnt actually suck on people. His value at his ADP blows chunks. You're going to draft 27 HR and 8 SB in Rd 2? For reals? Enjoy 10th place you losers.
people are day dreaming about his days in Colorado. It's over. What does consistency matter when you're not getting great stats. JAY BRUCE WILL OUTPRODUCE HOLLIDAY. GUARANTEED
- 2 Replies to The American Dream
Oh, so you only want to talk about his stats after he left Colorado then? So his averages since leaving Colorado (and this includes a HORRIBLE half season in Oakland) are:
95 R, 26 HR, 106 RBI, 12 SB, 313 AVG
I see what you mean, his stats are horrible since he left Colorado.
Will Jay Bruce:
1) score that many runs? Most he's ever scored is 80, so I'm gonna have to say.....NO
2) hit that many HRs? If he continues to improve (sine he's never hit that many before) he should. So I'll say YES, although not a whole lot more.
3) drive in that many runs? His career high is 70, so I'm gonna have to say not a chance in hell.
4) hit for that high of an average? You're dreaming if you think he'll come anywhere near Holiday in this category. Bruce's career high .281 is more than 30 points lower than Holidays worst AVG in the last 5 years.
5) get more SBs than Holiday? Seeing as he's been caught stealing more than he's been successful, I think this is a NO.
So Holliday will most likely beat Bruce in R, RBI, AVG, SB. While Bruce will edge out Holliday in HRs. Don't get me wrong, I love Bruce and he'll be a better draft day deal than Holliday most likely, but I think he's got another year or two before he puts up better numbers than Holliday.
Granted his numbers are trending down but, it's not like he's too far past his prime really. He's only 31, so he's still got plenty left in him. His 3 year averages (see below) are pretty solid. Granted the SB line is unrealistic at this point, but everything else is certainly attainable.
His upside isn't as good as some of the other OF going in the top 2 rounds (Kemp, CarGo, Braun, etc) but his floor (see below for the worst he's done in any category in the last 5 years) and 3 year averages are certainly on par or better than anybody going after him. I'd put him down for 98 R, 29 HR, 110 RBI, 9 SB, 319 AVG. Which is good enough to draft in the 3rd round if you ask me.
Would I take him in the 2nd (his ADP is 22).....probably not, but there is something to be said for drafting a guy you absolutely KNOW is going to produce in the first few rounds, rather than a guy who might be a top 10 player.....or he might be a complete bust. That said, as we get closer to the start of the season the youngsters ADPs will move up based on "Potential" and the vets ADPs will slide down a bit based on being "boring", which means his value won't "suck" anymore. By the time the season starts his ADP will probably be in the 30's which is mid to late 3rd round and decent value.
3 YR AVG - 99 R, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 17 SB, 315 AVG
5 YR FLOOR - 84 R, 24 HR, 88 RBI, 9 SB, 312 AVG
Holliday is a-ight. One thing about him is consistency. Holliday won't crap the bed like some other possible picks at that level would.
Having said thatm I still doubt he winds up on one of my teams this year.
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