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  • M M Jan 30, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    Hosmer or Adams?

    Who do you like better for a dynasty team? we have OPS as a stat. Is Adams worth waiting for him to have a fulltime job? and Will Hosmer keep hitting close to .300? Thanks for any opinions.

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    • Stop talking about Joey Votto and how he can steal more than 1 base. It is irrelevant.

    • Despite what appeared to be a significantly improved year by Hosmer in 2013 from his disastrous 2012 campaign, many of his peripherals suggest otherwise. His HR% only went up from 2.3% to 2.5%, his BB% actually DROPPED nearly 2%, his K/BB ratio actually went UP, his Groundout/All Outs ratio went UP, and his HR/FB% went DOWN.

      So how did Hosmer have a statistically better season in 2013 than he did in 2012 (and arguably his best season as a big-leaguer)? Well, a few stats stand out. First, his K% dropped by more than a full point, from 15.9% to 14.7%, meaning that he was putting the ball in play more often (increasing the chances that something good would happen). His Line Drive% skyrocketed from 14% to a career-high 23% (it was 17% during his rookie year), and line drives generally are more likely to turn into base hits than groundballs or flyballs (coincidentally, this increased LD% may help to also explain his decreased HR rates, as he may have traded power for driving the ball). Lastly, his BABIP skyrocketed by 80 full points from 2012 to 2013, to a career-high .335. Granted, he may have been a bit unlucky in 2012, but it also means he may have been slightly lucky in 2013. But after just 3 seasons, with a BABIP that has yo-yo'ed each year, it's hard to tell exactly where his "norm" should fall for us to determine when he's been "lucky" or "unlucky."

      In other words, it's hard to tell exactly which set of peripherals are more telling as to whether Hosmer's 2013 line was "lucky," or if he actually made significant strides in bouncing back from what may have been an extremely "unlucky" 2012.

      That being said, there are several reasons why I'd take Hosmer over Adams. First, I'm sure that, if healthy, Hosmer will get a full season of ABs. I can't be sure about that with Adams. And the reason for that is their splits against lefties. I'm actually running out of characters, so let me finish my explanation in a subsequent post.....

      • 1 Reply to PhillyPhanatic85
      • Granted, Adams has a very small sample size, but he hit lefties at a rate 64 points worse than righties last year. Hosmer, on the other hand, actually hit lefties BETTER than rights in 2013, and for his career, he only hits lefties 17 points lower than he hits righties. As pitchers see more of Adams, they'll make adjustments. Can he make them, or will he have a Hosmer-like sophomore slump?

        The other big deciding factor for me is that, despite the gap in experience, Hosmer is actually a year YOUNGER than Adams. He's further along in his development, and is younger. Granted, a year is nothing. But in a dynasty league, if all things are equal, I'll go with the younger guy. In other words, to me, Adams would have to be the better player now, already, for me to take him over Hosmer. And I don't believe that to be the case. So I'll side with Hosmer.

    • Hosmer is still a guy who plays a very deep position and has never hit 20 HR or 80 RBI, seems like a lot of people are overrating him a bit. Yahoo has him ahead of Gonzalez and Ortiz which is a joke.

      I'd rather just platoon Adams with the hot hand off waivers, you'll get better production then what Hosmer will give you. (and I'm not an Adams fan).

    • Adams is good...Hosmer is better.

      Hosmer is the only 1B other than Goldschmidt with the legitimate prospect of going .300/20/10.

    • Hosmer.

    • I like Hosmer here.

    • Hosmer mainly bc he seems to be getting better and better search season.Only first baseman with potential 15+ steal ability. Adams has nice power but has yet to play a full season. It's close tho.


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