Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
I've got to choose between one of them for my sixth keeper. Cliff Lee is the only other pitcher that I am keeping. It is a 15 team league, 6x6 rotisserie, 1650 innings cap, holds as a category. My four hitters are all young, with Ian Desmond being both the oldest and least valuable of the four.
I am leaning towards Trevor Rosenthal. Jered Weaver has nice ERA & WHIP and pitches for a good team, but he's in his 30s now and his K rate has been way down for a few years in a row. He was 5th, 2nd, and 3rd in the Cy Young from 2010 through 2012 and led the league in strikeouts in 2010, but I think I have to let him go. Am I overvaluing youth by choosing Rosenthal over Weaver? I'm a Cardinals fan, so I could have some hometown player bias, too.
I think Rosenthal is a more valuable player this year in roto than weaver but for a 15 team keeper i really think you have to look at what will be available in the draft. im guessing kimbrel and chapman are the only closers being kept unless someone really likes kenley or koji, while there are at least 25-30 starting pitchers worth keeping in a 15 team league. keeping weaver is definitely safer and unless you think you can find 1650 solid innings throughout the year or later in the draft then you should stick with weaver and see what closers you should draft. if you think rosenthal could be the next kimbrel or chapman then maybe i see it but i dont think its smart to put him on that level yet
- 1 Reply to JD
I've got a degree in mathematics, so I'm smart enough to know how the math works in fantasy baseball. In roto you have an innings cap (and with saves and holds both as categories, I will be using 6 RPs). It's easy for me to do the math and recognize that Rosenthal helps me more in strikeouts than Jered Weaver does, even though Weaver will get more strikeouts. Comparing Rosenthal to my average RP or Weaver to my average SP, it's quite clear which player will give me a bigger boost in strikeouts. I will use 6 RPs all year, and I will use all 1650 innings. Given those two assumptions, Rosenthal helps me more in strikeouts.
Weaver will pitch about three times as many innings as Rosenthal. But for him to help in ERA & WHIP, I need to compare his effect on my team ERA and WHIP to that of Rosenthal. With three times as many innings, his ERA and WHIP will have three times as much of an effect. But to determine who actually has a greater effect, I have to compare their ERA/WHIP to my team average in ERA and WHIP. It's actually quite easy for closers to have a greater effect than starting pitchers, but it depends on what you use as the baseline to compare them to. If my team average is 3.60 ERA, and Weaver gets a 3.00 ERA, then for Rosenthal to match him, Rosenthal would need to beat my team ERA by 3x as much, meaning he would need to be 3x0.6 better, or to be 1.80 ERA below. That means he would need an ERA of 1.80 to match a SP with an ERA of 3.00. Once the top tier SPs are off the board and you're drafting guys who will have ERAs in the mid 3s, you'll find that closers have more of an effect on your team ERA than a #2 or #3 SP will.
So if Weaver's ERA ends up in the mid 3s this year, its quite likely that Rosenthal will have a greater positive effect on my team ERA than Weaver will, despite Weaver pitching three times as many innings.
So due to my math skills, I have defeated the "closers only help you in one category" argument. That argument is invalid.
I have a few points here:
1) I agree to some extent with Dick. I would like to know some of your other potential options to see if perhaps you're overlooking or down on someone who others may feel is a better keeper option than either of these two.
2) If these ARE your two best options, AND your league DOES NOT require you to use all 6 keepers, I would sit down, analyze who you project everyone else to keep, and consider not keeping a 6th if you might be able to draft someone better in place of a 6th keeper.
3) If you MUST keep 6, and these ARE your two best options, I'd side with Weaver. For starters, there is MASSIVE annual turnover with closers. For example, in 2012, only 10 Opening Day closers were still the closer for his team at season's end (an 11th, Brandon League, remained a closer all year but was traded from Seattle to LA). Such "sure-thing" closers (at that time) as Drew Storen, Heath Bell, and Brian Wilson were among the victims of being demoted and/or injured at some point. What I'm getting at is that, because of the high-pressure, high-profile nature of closers, their margin of error is significantly lesser than other pitchers. Eric Gagne, for example, had consecutive seasons of 59+ saves. Over the last 4 years of his career, he COMBINED for only 72 saves before being out of baseball.
As far as Weaver's "reduced Ks," 2010 is the ONLY year in his career where his K/9 was above 7.7. And none of the rest of his peripherals are drastically different from his career norms. So I'm not nearly as alarmed as you about his Ks. Unless you have a K/9 category, Weaver should give you more TOTAL Ks than Rosenthal (barring injury, of course).
- 1 Reply to PhillyPhanatic85
Weaver gives more total K's, but his K's compared to another SP, or Rosenthal's K's compared to another RP is a big difference. Rosenthal will help me more in strikeouts than Weaver will. I'm a Cards fan, I trust in Rosenthal. But I'm also aware of how some "sure thing" starting pitchers were busts last year. Guys like Verlander, Sabathia, and Halladay to name a few.
My other options aren't really worth considering:
Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz, Alfonso Soriano, Victor Martinez, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Andrew Cashner, Marco Estrada, AJ Griffin, Lance Lynn, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Wood, Rafael Soriano are the other options. It's a 15 team league with 6 keepers, I do have to keep 6. Pitching is scarce in this league because its 15 team with all owners active and a 1650 innings cap.
I finished 2nd last year despite having a rotation of Weaver, Lynn, Cashner, Griffin, Estrada, and Nolasco for most of the year. I had Phil Hughes for a while, but ditched him for Alex Wood in August or something. I had Haren early on, and I held onto him for too long. My pitching really sucked.
I wouldn't keep either one.
Hitting is more predictable than pitching and if you are in a 15 team league then hitting is scarce. I guarantee you that 5 of the top 20 pitchers for 2014 aren't on anybody's roster because they are all rookies.
Keep another hitter...you will be better served.
- 1 Reply to Dick Strong
I've got Trout, Goldschmidt, Kipnis, and Desmond. I traded away Carpenter and Holliday to get Lee and Soriano, but planned on only keeping Lee. I don't need more hitting, I finished 1st in all the hitting categories last year except for SBs where I was second, Hitting is not scarce, pitching is what's scarce.
don't forget you need 1650 quality innings. with that said Weaver 200, Rosenthal 65. Weaver more Ks, wins. there are a few good sleeper closers this year as a few teams will have many regulars back that were hurt last year. If Weaver is healthy, would be a no brainer for me. The Quality starters will be gone fast in a 15 team league, starting with only 1 on your roster will put you in the hole out of the gate
I don't think you are overvaluing Rosenthal as he should be an elite closer. I honesty am not a fan of Closers or Catchers as keepers but since your league is not head to head and is 15 leagues deep I'd go with Rosenthal over Weaver. Closers are not as deep as SP this year.
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