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He is a very solid player. His average is not likely to be above .280 this season, since he benefited last year from a BABIP of .340. But he had 43 doubles and 20 HR's at age 24. A number of those doubles will wind up as HR's as he matures, so he is a definite candidate for 30 HR's, 90 R's, 90 RBI's and a decent average. The fact that he chips in double-digit steals is a bonus.
- 4 Replies to J
I like him but I think he is going to be drafted to high for me. I have seen him projected in the top 25 on a lot of sites, which I just can't believe. I would not take him in the 3rd round. I think he would be a very safe pick with high upside in the 6th or 7th round. But I think he will be long gone before that.
Yahoo will probably rank him in the top 25 for some strange reason. He will be gone by the end of the second round. His rise and the fall off of A Gonzalez and Tex should mesh really well.
I drafted him last year in my keeper league (we keep 10 players), where we use OBP rather than BA. Goldschmidt's very good BB rate and OBP mean he is a keeper for me.
I suspect he goes among the 2nd tier of first baseman, somewhere in the 3rd round, early 4th at the latest.
The issue is that after Fielder, Pujols, Encarnacion (I guess, though I wonder if he is remotely as good in 2013), and perhaps Teixeira and Freeman, the pickings get slim. Fielder and Pujols are gone in the 1st round. Encarnacion probably 1st as well, no later than 2nd round. Teixeira and Freeman go 3rd round, 4th at latest.
Goldschmidt is better than Teixeira right now (superior BA, OBP, steals, improving power, better health). He is probably superior to Freeman as well. That means he goes 3rd or 4th round.
The average will come down a bit this year. He's never ran like that in pro ball before and his K rate is actually likely to rise as it was higher in the minors and his debut. I'd predict .265, 25 hr, 80 and less than 10 sb.
It also hurts losing Upton in that lineup.
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