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  • 2C%L 2C%L Jan 22, 2013 9:05 AM Flag

    good deal?

    Brew, you make a solid argument, however, I am not convinced it's as clear cut that Rosenthal is the heir to close as he is also a strong rotation candidate as well. The premium on pitching in our league is insane, and nobody but nobody is dealing anything close to the likes of the top aces you mention for a guy whose career batting average hovers in the .250s, despite his above average power for the position and decent speed. Regardless of how his season goes this year, I view his best years behind him in a much weaker line-up that will deteriorate before improving, while I consider Morrow a bit of a late bloomer on top of being 4 years younger, has a great K/9 rate and a very good whip, now pitching with a real offense behind him... all tells me he's primed for big things. that said, I have Rosenthal (and Boggs) on my roster, so essentially I have the StL Closer situation covered from all angles, but I don;t see Motte losing his job this year at all, especially not the way he's been pitching since he took over. I could see him being traded, but I believe he would still remain a Closer somewhere as long as he continues to be effective. I think the value of 2B after Cano is pretty subjective depending on roster configuration, but having followed Kinsler closely for some time, I think his best days are gone and his decline will be more dramatic than most might anticipate (at least in power/speed). Thank you for the thoughtful input, I always appreciate good takes.

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    • Youre welcome. Considering the amount of RPs being mentioned your league must have a holds category? And youre right those pitchers listed by me are a bit above Kinsler but, to me that's where I'd throw my counter, explain to the other owner how Kinsler is top 4 at 2b even on down years and not coming cheap in a trade.
      I threw the Motte scenario with Rosenthal taking over because it may happen, and if I were an owner and worried I was hanging on to a player who's spot is questionable, I'd try to trade him. I worked that with Clippard last year A Clippard J.Zimmerman deal that landed Texeira(stuck with Hosmer at time) and someone else who's name I'm forgetting. I thought it was an amazing deal for me if Tex hit anywhere along his career avg...It didn't pan out that way but Zimmerman wouldn't have landed me Tex alone. At least back then before his full season 2012 awesomeness.

      I will say, when a position is weak like 2b, while most people jump at getting the top 2-3 guys before the dropoff, I figure they are overpaying on the early pick for stats of a 2b and choose to go after the high 1b/3b or OF players. I think having .290 25+HRs and 100Rbi guys are worth more than a 2b picked in the same area at .270 20HRs and 75-80Rbis. I've never had Cano, never will, he is the exception in that he does put up that top tier line, but to me Accepting a disadvantage on 2-4teams in one position and planning on having a late rd pick accepting equalness on the rest of the League. I'd hate to be weak in an area expected to be strong OF,3b/1b because I used a 1-4rd pick on 2b/C/SS for me and couldn't fill out my OF/3b/1b until rd 10-14. 2b for me last year was Ryan Raburn and quickly Jose Altuve. on a BTW note I found myself picking Napoli for C against my beliefs at rd 5 and was absolutely burned on it.
      Random Tangient anyway, I can absolutely agree with trading away Kinsler. What I was getting to is when you draft these elite players at a position and they underperform, you stick with them far too long because the pick you used to get them. Uggla at 2b comes to mind last year. I hate being so in-flexible, Napoli for me, where there are guys on Waiver you want to add, but just cant commit to dropping for nothing. Nobody wanted Napoli in trade last year for me and I did eventually drop him(only 4days til someone picked him up). A poor season from a Cream of the Crop guy can really derail your season.

      • 2 Replies to BrewCrewDue
      • Rutledge is indeed on my radar as well as Walker, and one guy has them both, plus Espinosa and Profar! He is a bit aloof to try and rap about trade possibilities, but he is clearly my most logical trading partner, and hopefully I can work a deal with him. I did leave a couple guys off my quick list of 2B tiers as you point out... including A.Hill (1st tier) R.Weeks (2nd Tier rebound to 1st Tier candidate), Daniel Murphy, Marco Scutaro, Rutledge, Solano, Espinosa, Keppinger... among some other less sexy (but not necessarily less productive players) ...in fact, I think it could be easier to list teams the handful of teams that have really dreadful 2B fantasy options, because to me, most actually have some kind of upside/potential that makes them decent play possibilities: teams like the Twins (Jamie Carroll), Dodgers (Mark Ellis), Oakland (Adam Rosales/Jemile Weeks), and the Cubs (Darwin Barney) are really the only ones that truly stand out to me as options to try and avoid if possible. Somewhere within all the 2B maelstrom lies (in wait) the Jays Bonifacio/Izturis combo. These guys both play all over the diamond and given regular at-bats can be of considerable sleeping value on a team like Toronto with a re-vamped offense, high hopes, and renewed motivation. So I pull this trigger. I saw the Motte signing too. I really like the Rosenthal kid. I am kind of hedging on the Cards using him as a starter and the Motte signing bodes well for that. I also forgot to mention I have Scott Baker on my squad... another arm I view as high-upside (except for Wrigley now) so maybe I could deal him for the likes of a Walker if I wanted. I agree Shelby Miller is gonna be good... the Cards have Carlos Martinez on the farm as well. A mix of rotation options featuring Wainright, Carpenter, Lynn, Garcia, Miller, Rosenthal, Martinez is encouraging to me that Motte could even extend past 2014 as Closer if the kids really impress as the older guys like Carp wind down their careers.

      • Most interesting. Well composed. I do agree... to an extent; I suppose things do often boil down to league configuration. Yes the league counts Holds, but more than that it has like 4-5 mandatory slots for RP as well as SP. I came in 2nd last year. I drafted 16th out of 16. I took Kinsler/Granderson on the back-to-back... they both performed, but not nearly at their 2011 levels. I do think it's risky move, but hopefully not too damning if it doesn't pan out. I actually view 2B as a little more defined than last season with Cano, Phillips, Altuve, Pedroia and Kinsler rounding out the top tier, but I think the fall-off is not that dramatic from a Kinsler to a 2ndtier 2Bman like Kipnis, Walker, Uggla, Utley, or Kendrick. I like Bonifacio's potential (perhaps I'm reaching) but if Boni doesn't pan out I'll deal something lesser for a more solid bat. This league is full of veteran fantasy guys who are not about to be swayed by such arguments to overpay (why I like it)... basically, the best trade strategy is a predictive one that focuses on buying a little below value in order to get guys to part with value in return. With the premium on pitching, I feel pretty good regardless of whether or not this deal works out because I'm stacked now with Gio, Sale, Harvey, Iwakuma, Pettite, and now Morrow as my SPs and Rodney, Soriano, Betancourt, and now Motte as my Closers with Boggs, Rosenthal, and Pestano as my setup guys. Last year I started with C/Ruiz 1B/Swisher 2B/Kinsler 3B/Arod SS/Aybar OF/Grandy/Trumbo/DeAza and Util/BJUpton. this year I will star with C/Ruiz 1B/ACraig 2B/Bonifacio 3B/Trumbo/Dominguez SS/IDesmond OF/Grandy/Hunter/Ruf and Util/Aybar. As you can see I've had a great deal of turn-over through trades and pickups. I thought I had it made last year, but I got killed on things like OPS and QS. I feel like I improve my OPS with addition by subtraction in dealing Kinsler and sure up my somewhat aging staff with younger guys... hopefully. It's a little risky, but then again, a young Donovan Solano pickup or the likes could break out to be the next Altuve and make me look pretty slick. We'll see.

 

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