Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
In a 12-team H2H league and in need of a RP and/or 2B. I already have Cain, Dempster at SP so gonna sell Dickey. I'm close to Dickey for CJ Wilson + Rafael Betancourt. Should I do it? I can also do:
Dickey for Chris Sale + Carlos Marmol
Dickey + Sergio Romo for Ian Kinsler + Addison Reed
Melky Cabrera + Nelson Cruz for Cuddyer, Austin Jackson, Ernesto Frieri
Cain for Cliff Lee + Rodriguez (TB closer)
are any of these trades good?
I would be concerned about trading for Sale due to his innings count. Nobody is quite sure if they will shut him down or not... and even if they don't shut him down, it's still an unknown how he'll respond when his innings total gets up there.
I had always thought that knuckleballers had an advantage in warm weather and had some problems in cold weather, but I did a little reading to verify that and it turns out I had it a bit backwards. Warm weather means less air density which means the ball spins more and flutters less... bad for knuckleballers. Some may argue that humid weather means greater air density, which should be good, but in fact the water vapor on humid days actually displaces heavier elements in the air making it less dense. (If you google [Understanding air density USA Today], there's a very good explanation of how humidity affects air density there)
If you buy into the whole scientific aspect of throwing knuckleballs, it may alter your perception of the situation. Maybe his last few starts were due to hot humid weather and lower air density... or maybe he's just making more mistakes. Maybe the best is yet to come as we get into late august and September when the air cools and it's less humid. When it comes down to it, I very well may just be over thinking the whole thing and the last three starts are just like any other isolated things that happen in a small sample size.
My opinion is (and you wouldn't believe it after reading all this), don't over think it. If you like Dickey, go with it. Don't get too fancy with buy low / sell high games. If you need a bat or need to move him to help in another category to solidify your place in the standings and you like the value he brings as trade bait, then pull the trigger. Playing buy low / sell high games usually turns out to be more complicated than what it's worth, except in a small number clear and obvious situations (and if the other owner is smart will promptly be rejected).
Dickey's last 2 starts before tonight his ERA was 7.50 with a whip of 1.83 and a K/9 = 8.25. If you want to trade him due to panicking, you are a little late on the timing here. Including tonight, those last 3 games amount to an ERA of 6.16, a whip of 1.656 and a K/9 = 7.8. Ugly.
In a keeper league, take any of those trades listed above for Dickey if you can get them. I'd also do the Cain deal if you can get it.
I'd pass on giving up Melky and Cruz for the 3 in that 3rd trade.
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