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  • Todd Todd Apr 28, 2012 10:47 AM Flag

    Kemp for Pujols?

    One thing I always think about with hot starts is how someone will finish. If you were to think that both would hit 30-35 HRs this year, they I'd might take Pujols since he has 30 left to hit, while Kemp would only hit 20-25 more. However, I don't think Kemp will slow down that much and probably be north of 40 before its all done, so they still each have 30 left to hit.

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    • That would be a legitimate way of thinking if their history shows they've been super streaky where maybe Pujols will just explode to make up for everything. Neither of these two players have that history. You'll find you won't get a full season of expected stats out of Pujols. However, you very well may get his per at bat averages going forward, which for almost everyone who has waited, it is worth it. Just pointing out don't expect to all of a sudden get a windfall that Pujols has been holding back and will grant you all the past stats from his genie bottle, in addition to his current stats when he decides to 'open' up.

      By projecting their past per at bat averages for HRs and average, knowing Pujols has missed out on a month of those. And project from there. Then sadly also factor in how long it will take Pujols to still get used to his new digs still before he even starts producing.

      Beckett isn't anywhere near enough of value to counter the loss of Kemp at this point. I'd need something much bigger to bother.


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