Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
When people put feelings and projections over actual stats.
When will people realize that Greinke is an average pitcher at best??
Career: 3.83 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 8.0 SO/9........
Where is he being drafted?
How about the career AVGs of Hiroki Kuroda, Mat Latos, Matt Garza, hell, even Tim Hudson or Anibal Sanchez??
Where are they being drafted?
Greinke is not an elite pitcher. Sorry boys and girls.
Grienke is borderline elite.
I suggest you look at more recent history. In Grienke's last 3 years his ERA is 3.33 and WHIP is 1.17. He also averages 208K's per year a near lock for 200+K per year.
His wins are somewhat skewed being on the royals, but he has a good shot at 20 wins now with Milwakee. Last year he got 16 wins, but missed 5 starts.
The Kid and I agree on most fantasy baseball issues but we part company on this one. If the question is - who is going to be a better fantasy player in 2012 - there is no "right" or "wrong" answer. There is only opinion. Opinion is based on prior knowledge of stats and future expectation of results. One may lead to the other but it doesn't have to. What is perfect is when two owners in the same league have this wonderful difference of opinion on players that they own - that's what leads to trades that make both teams happy. As an accountant I am used to using numbers to back up opinions but sometimes you have to simply go by gut feel and your experience.
Castro didn't play until May his rookie season, so it is not accurate to use the simple math I used.
However, it is more accurate to do that than to do the simple math the way you did, using a 28 year old pitcher's year in the bullpen and his 20 and 21 year old seasons as valid data in projecting how he would do this year. That is horribly inaccurate as well, and its sad that you do not realize that.
But since we're doing simple math, and you don't have the intelligence to understand what xFIP means or that 20 and 21 year old season's aren't relevant to predicting a 28 year old SP, then I figured I would keep the math simple for you.
Math clearly is not your strong point.
Your projections on Castro are not based on stats, they are projections on him expecting him to improve because he's young.
If you base projections off Castro's stats, he's clearly not worth picking in the top 100.
Go look at his line that you had for him with a 162 game avg and try to tell me that he's a top 50 pick with those stats.
You're the one who is using feelings and ignoring stats and projections.
i think the whole point of the argument has been lost. How can you be ignorant to the potential/projection of Greinke yet use the same point for your argument of Castro? If Castro played any other position but SS he wouldn't even be a 100 ranked player. Only stat he does well in fantasy wise is his average, and maybe his runs. everything else is just eh. Greinke era, and Whip is better then league average, his K's and wins are among the best. He is a great pitcher in a pitchers league
No, I get annoyed when people make projections off of feelings. Projections off of actual stats are essentially the only, and best things to go off of. Furthermore, you all disagreed with me when I said that Gabriel's stats were wrong, when clearly I was not.
His simple mathematic calculations put a 128 game season on the same scale as a 158 game season, which is WRONG. I am sorry none of you are intelligent enough to see this. Goodbye for now.
1) It's funny how you keep saying goodbye, yet keep coming back. Big red flag that you, sir, are a Troll.
2) I do not disagree that 162 game avg. is not useful or indicative. Go back, you will see I never did any such thing. But I DID point out that it is a composite, an artificial projection, as most stats are. And YOUR WHOLE OPENING PREMISE was that it annoys you how people take projections over actual season stats.
That projection is much more accurate than selecting numbers from 128 game seasons and putting them on the scale of a full season. 162 game AVG is THE BEST TOOL for predicting a player's performance over a full season because it accurately calculates a player's numbers over a full season if that player had only played 100 games that year.
The only time 162 game AVGs are not suggestive of a player's performance is when that player is notoriously injury prone and can not produce a large enough sample size to predict (ex: Nelson Cruz). However, Castro is not one of those players. Swing and a miss, for you.
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