Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Gordon, Bruce, Cruz.
Cruz is pretty sweet, but when he can't stay healthy enough to play 130+ games, that really limits his ability to produce, especially when he'll cut down on his SB's now and he's never been known as a BA helper...
Gordon won't give as much power as either of those, but he's the only one who'll be an asset in BA and produce nice numbers in all 5 cats. I expect him to hold steady if not improve, he's got the talent. Bruce will hurt in BA, though he'll kill the ball for HR's and RBI's.
Grasping at straws? You're picking a 28 year old over a 31 year old who turns 32 at midseason and saying it is because of youth, ignoring all previous seasons in the 28 year old's career as invalid predictors and focusing your analysis of his value solely on the season he had at age 27.
Jay Bruce is still young. Alex Gordon is not. He's 28 years old. He had one good season, with tons of signs pointing towards regression.
I'm not grasping at straws by pointing out that you're calling a 28 year old a young player.
Nelson Cruz's 3 year average:
120 games played
.278 avg 66 runs 28 HRs 80 rbis 15 SBs
Let's assume that your backup OF is such low quality, that he has the stats Jason Bay had last year. Bay played in 123 games, so we'll divide Jason Bay's stats by 3 (except for bavg of course) to get a good 41 game sample.
.246 average 20 runs 4 HRs 19 RBIs 4 SBs
combine the two and you get
.270 average 86 runs 32 homers 99 rbis 19 SBs
If your backup OF can outproduce Jason Bay's 2011 season, then your stats will be even better.
There's no way I would take Bruce, or especially Gordon, if I was allowed to take Cruz AND allowed to use a replacement OF when Cruz gets hurt. If you have to pick your team in spring training, and then you aren't allowed to make any roster moves at all once the season begins, then I would take Bruce over Cruz, but I would still take Cruz over Gordon.
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