Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Jason Heyward is undoubtedy the hottest prospect in baseball for 2010. And since Atlanta has announced that Heyward will be heading to Altanta to start the season with the big league club, Heyward has been flying off the draft board. In the last few days, Heyward's ADP has jumped from the low 200's to 183 in Yahoo draft's which it huge for this late in the spring. I've been asked by a few people what I think about Heyward and drafting him this year. I actually don't have him in any of my leagues (even my dynasty league), and I'm ok with that (for this year). Here are my feelings on Heyward for 2010:
1) Age. He's only 20. With all the hype, and spring training craziness, it's hard to overlook this point. No 20 year old (not named Ted Williams) walks right into the majors and dominates. Heywards raw power is undeniable, but with the quality of pitching in the NL, there is definately going to be some growing pains.
2) Experience. Heyward has 226 games of minor league ball under his belt, with 176 at the A level, 47 at AA, and only 3 games at AAA. In those 226 games, he has 28 homeruns. To me, that makes it pretty obvious that a 25-30 homerun projection for this season seems a little over optimisitc.
3) Shin Splints? Heyward was left out of the game today because of shin splints. If he has a nagging injury like this going into the season, don't expect a lot of stolen bases. Also, the team is going to treat Heyward with kid gloves. Any sign of injury will put him on the bench, or back to AAA. Even an early season slump could get him a trip back to AAA to avoid destroying his confidence.
Don't get me wrong... I like Heyward. A lot. Since Bond's retired, OF's have taken a back seat in the top tier of the power department to A-Rod and first basemen. Heyward could be the second coming of Hank Aaron. But not yet. Not in 2010... maybe not even in 2011. Plenty of people are salivating over Heyward this year, so if you have him, now is a great time to trade him. If he's available after pick 200, and you want to take a risk, go ahead, but don't reach for him unless you are in a dynasty league and can lock him up for 3 to 4 years. As far as projections, if he can get 140+ starts this year, I've got him at 18 HR's, 70 RBI, 65 Runs, 7 Steals, .275 Batting Average. To me, that sounds like a great season for a 20 year old, but not quite the astronomical numbers some people are talking about.
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someone drafted him in the 5th round in my league. and it was there 1st OF'er taken. thats why i'm soo surprised about why people are so high on him this year. plus, the braves bad offense will hurt him too.
I wouldn't call Ken Griffey's numbers dominating:
Age 19: 127 games, 16HR, 61RBI, 16SB, .264 Avg
Age 20: 155 games, 22HR, 80RBI, 16SB, .300 Avg
Good, but not dominating
A-Rod's #'s when he was 20 were impressive, but he had already played in parts of 2 season before that with combined numbers of 65 games, 5HR's, 21 RBI, 7 SB's and a .224 batting average.
Pujols is certainly the exception, and if you believe that Heyward is as good as Pujols, then ok. But I'm not sold.
- 1 Reply to Steve-o
I have not heard one thing about people expecting Heyward to be dominating until I read your post, people just think he will do well. People expect him to do well and if he put up that line that Griffey did when he was 20 I would be very happy if I had him on my roster
Your second point: Pujols only had 19 career MiLB HR in 133G and he hit 37 his first year
Jay Bruce only hit 61HR 358G in the minors and already has 43 in only 209G in the majors
Can give more examples...
- 1 Reply to bo4726
How about the third point? Why would an injury send a player to Triple A? The DL, I'd understand. Even benching so he can heal, I can understand. But what does sending an injured guy down to Triple A accomplish? It's not like he's going to heal faster in Triple A, and if anything, you'd want to keep the guy in Atlanta since I'm assuming their medical staff and facilities are better there.
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