Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Over the past few weeks I have been compiling lists, research, and so on to help us understand which positions were of value in 2009, which were the thinnest, which stats each respective position excelled at, and some that they did not excel at.
I have divided up each statistic into four categories, as well as dividing up the end-season ranks into four tiers. Each tier of each category, or rank, has a point value attached to it. Top tier placements (I.E. Top 25 player, 40+ HR, 50+ SB's, etc) are worth 4 points. The next tier 3, next 2, etc, etc.
I'll give you a taste of what I have been working on to show you the depth at each position in terms of Yahoo rankings.
1) Catcher: 1 in the Top 25...2 in the Top 50...3 in the Top 100...6 in the Top 200
Overall Point Value --- 22 POINTS
2) FirstBase: 6 in the Top 25...10 in the Top 50...19 in the Top 100...30 in the Top 200
Overall Point Value --- 122 POINTS
3) SecondBase: 1 in the Top 25...8 in the Top 50...9 in the Top 100...22 in the Top 200
Overall Point Value --- 68 POINTS
4) ThirdBase: 2 in the Top 25...7 in the Top 50...10 in the Top 100...21 in the Top 200
Overall Point Value --- 70 POINTS
5) Shortstop: 3 in the Top 25...5 in the Top 50...8 in the Top 100...18 in the Top 200
Overall Point Value --- 61 POINTS
6) Outfield: 5 in the Top 25...13 in the Top 50...27 in the Top 100...55 in the Top 200
Overall Point Value --- 168 POINTS
I appreciate the effort, but it's alot fo analysis to figure out that 1B and OF are the deepest and C and SS are the thinnest, with 3B and 2B being in between and essentially equal. That was fairly well figured out with out all the number crunching. What can be done with it as far as was pointed out earlier where removing guys from the list will tell you IN DRAFT how the relative depth is at a given point, THAT would really help you the most IMO.
Intriguing analysis. It's a beginning.
The recognition that 2b & 3b are statistically identical is interesting. Your analysis provides a great base...one may need a computer model (dare I say "like college football") to modify the results for injuries ( Arod) for off years (Wright) pushing 3B up and is Chipper done or did he just have an off year, does a new Brave 3B improve or dilute?.
and/or speculative ratios for adding rising potential to the picture...For instance recognizing in some manner that Wieters may be very good in 2010, theoretically broadening the catcher base and diluting the position ( ever so slightly).
2009 position score * ratios for this that and the other thing. i.e. an injury to Mauer may decimate the catcher position rating as is. Is there an injury probability ratio for Mauer?...which may be higher than say Ripken and lower than Griffey.
One could also add an in draft update...so as each player is picked, remove them from the equation reconfigure the #'s and make a determination of the theoretical best player, given position, available.
But there are some things one can never solve...picking between a SP or a batter...when is it time to pick the closer...
So another computer program could be running simultaneously to evaluate the players one has picked showing what categories one still needs to acquire and thread this result through the results of the first program. This second program may need to review the rest of your league's picks by team to see where they are in chosen categories...
Then again, if no one has picked a closer...it's going to point to closers because no one has saves and all of the sudden that becomes the difference making category. So the program also has to have an ignore category button....
Your stuff is really cool...but it's also good to know there will always be room for the gut feeling and luck.
Interesting. I just totaled up the total points for all positions in these offensive categories: Rank, HR, Runs, RBI's, Hits, SB's, AVG, OBP, and here were the point results (OF is excluded because we all know it'll be the deepest position by far, and I am still working on it because there are so many outfielders to sift through):
C: 104 points
1B: 565 points (no surprise)
2B: 345 points
3B: 329 points
SS: 279 points
Though by a small margin, statistically 2B is deeper when considering all stats than 3B. But you also have to take into account A-Rod being hurt and having a down year, David Wright's power disappearing, Aramis Ramirez having a down year powerwise too. But still, very interesting.
- 1 Reply to Blake C
I think Maurer is still your best 1st round pick
Only 2 C in the top 50
Play him everyday
You can always use someone w/mult positions who is hot to fill other positions(Coughlin,Beckham...). I guess what I'm saying is play him everyday and forget about it.and your C position will always outperform your opp. catcher.
Where did you include Kung Fu Panda C or 3B???
Also, this list helps us understand which positions have the most value. So for a position like 1B to have more Top 25 players than the OF, one should consider grabbing a top 1B over an OF when you consider that OF has far more players in the top 50 and 100 than 1B that can be grabbed. I haven't fully finished my overall analysis, but that is one example of analysis you could make looking at these rankings.
Furthermore, it should also be noted that while SS is the thinnest position overall (in points, aside from catcher), they also have more Top 25 players than 2B AND 3B. Things like these will help form and shape your draft as it will mine. I find this very helpful.
- 1 Reply to Blake C
I too thought about do player stat. analysis by position but it's 25 years since I grad. from college and time at a preminium.Please send final results to firstname.lastname@example.org
What I seen so far is in a 12team league.
2nd 2B/or best avail
3rd SS or best aval
4th 2B/SS or best avail.
In rounds 1-4 I think you need a C/2nd/SS
according to what I have seen so far
Note: This list does not include pitching scouting because I am treating that as a separate research form, and involves much more fluidity from year to year. This is merely an offensive analysis.
I have statistical analysis I am working on for these offensive stats:
-HR, Hits, Runs, RBI's, SB's, AVG and OBP
I will analyze each stat position by position like I did for the ranking I did above. If you like what you see, let me know, and when I finish the research, I can send you the Excel spreadsheet. On it I also have analyzed in depth each position and am ranking players within each position on worksheets within the entire spreadsheet.
I am not finished yet, but am working on it.