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  • Pat Pat Oct 31, 2009 8:56 AM Flag

    Position Player Depth 2009

    Intriguing analysis. It's a beginning.

    The recognition that 2b & 3b are statistically identical is interesting. Your analysis provides a great base...one may need a computer model (dare I say "like college football") to modify the results for injuries ( Arod) for off years (Wright) pushing 3B up and is Chipper done or did he just have an off year, does a new Brave 3B improve or dilute?.

    and/or speculative ratios for adding rising potential to the picture...For instance recognizing in some manner that Wieters may be very good in 2010, theoretically broadening the catcher base and diluting the position ( ever so slightly).

    2009 position score * ratios for this that and the other thing. i.e. an injury to Mauer may decimate the catcher position rating as is. Is there an injury probability ratio for Mauer?...which may be higher than say Ripken and lower than Griffey.

    One could also add an in draft update...so as each player is picked, remove them from the equation reconfigure the #'s and make a determination of the theoretical best player, given position, available.

    But there are some things one can never solve...picking between a SP or a batter...when is it time to pick the closer...

    So another computer program could be running simultaneously to evaluate the players one has picked showing what categories one still needs to acquire and thread this result through the results of the first program. This second program may need to review the rest of your league's picks by team to see where they are in chosen categories...

    Then again, if no one has picked a closer...it's going to point to closers because no one has saves and all of the sudden that becomes the difference making category. So the program also has to have an ignore category button....

    Your stuff is really cool...but it's also good to know there will always be room for the gut feeling and luck.

 

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