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  • brlebu brlebu Mar 4, 2009 5:59 PM Flag

    This is how you Draft! (12 team league)

    1. I know Bengie's not a pushover, but you could have drafted Pablo Sandoval toward the end of the draft and expected the same, or maybe better, numbers.

    2. Aviles is going to be good, but we have no idea if he's going to be good this year. That's why he's a question mark.

    3. I have checked Cantu's stats. He was downright terrible for two years before his revival in '08. Was it a fluke? Not entirely. He's still only 27 and he's got the skills to rake. But is he going to hit almost 30 bombs and put up an average close to .280 again with his ugly k rate? Probably not.

    4. Who cares about last year? You've got a few 35-year-olds roaming your outfield. And your second pick in the outfield is a 30-year-old who came out of nowhere to hit 37 bombs last year. Ludwick is a HUGE question mark in that regard.

    5. Ichiro isn't that far off Jose Reyes? HA!

    Ichiro plays for the Mariners, which means he'll be LUCKY to score 100 runs this year. He'll also be lucky to drive in more than 50 and his stolen base ceiling is probably about 45 at this point.

    Reyes plays for the Mets, which means it'll be a surprise if he doesn't score at least 115 runs. He'll EASILY hit 10 more homers and drive in 20 more than Ichiro. Oh, and Reyes has AVERAGED 64 stolen bases over the past four years, topping out at 78.

    6. You're right about Billingsley. He's not as close to Peavy as I thought. But don't be surprised if Billingsley takes a huge step forward this season.

    7. What?

    Lester's best season: 16 wins, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 152 K
    Shields's best season: 14 wins, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 K
    Kazmir's best season: 13 wins, 3.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 239 K

    And, thus far, Kazmir's 239 K's are a huge blip on the radar. He's never even approached 200 K's aside from that one season.

    And I'm not sure we can talk about Harden with these other three, as he's the most fragile piece of fine china in the world disguised as a baseball player. When he's pitching, he's probably the best pitcher in the game, but as his health status is a week-to-week thing, he's not a guy who can be counted on.

    The only reason I'm nitpicking is because your thread title was "This is how you Draft!", which lead me to believe you had put together an incredible draft. But your draft is full of "look at what this guy did last year!", "what if this!", "maybe!" and "I hope this guy stays healthy!"

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    • 1. Sandoval went in the 5th round
      2. Cantu is more of an injury risk than a hitting risk in my book, if you look at the 2 years he played full seasons he raked in both. Also as I said I got the closers as trade bait in which I will probably trade for another player at that position. So to say he was downright terrible for 2 years before is somewhat inaccurate because his numbers weren't over a full year.
      3. Age don't matter for players thats good, if you want to say ibanez and abreu are washed up because of their age you can say that but I whole heartedly disagree. Look at their numbers also, they have been consistent producers. Aside from that this is baseball, its not football, basketball or hockey, all of which are contact sports. I disagree with the age argument. Ludwick can be a question mark, but I'm a believer, I think he can hit 30 plus homers. If you disagree fine, agree to disagree, I don't think that was fluke.

      4. ceiling of 45 sbs, thats questionable, you maybe right, but if he wouldn't have hurt his leg last year he wouldve been in the 50s without question so thats debateable. No one drafts either reyes or ichiro for rbis obviously. to say that he will be LUCKY is a huge overstatement to the runs. The M's sucked last year and he got over 100 runs, he has scored over 100 runs in every year of his career. PLUS he had arguably OFF year average wise. Reyes had 50 something SBs last year, and he's obviously starting to focus on power more, It'll be a surprise if he steals more than 60 if he's shooting for more home runs, and I don't think his avg will be as good this year. So Regardless of that average I think he is trending down in the steals for power. I could be wrong, but everything in fantasy is merely a prediction either way you cut it.

      5 billingsley could take a huge step forward yes, but I say 4th round is reaching for him.

      6. I think the argument make is viable with lester because I think he is a solid pitcher, but you half to consider' he's probably getting great defense when his BAA is .256. He could improve for sure and I think he's legit, but I won't be surprised if his numbers are slightly worse this year. Obviously the rays are a much better team than the year when kazmir threw 239 ks, so I'm adding more wins to a healthy season. He can win 17-18 games. I'm not to big of a fan of shields mainly due to his k/9 and Kazmir IMO has much more upside than shields, he's only 25. Besides that, shields had already been taken in that round earlier. But back to kazmir as far as that one K season yeah your right, but its better to look at k/9, and consistently over his YOUNG career his k/9 always exceeds a considerable amount over 9. All he has to do is pitch the innings.


      lol @ how fragile harden is. Personally I think all this harden injury talk is a little exaggerated. Yeah I agree he is soft, but I think he is on the up and up, maybe i may have reached slightly for him, but like I said, HIS ONLY knock is his health. I personally think he will get me 160-170 innings with plenty of wins. Only time a tell.

      My team isn't full of what ifs not, its full of consistent producers outside of say ludwick (who I am high on and weren't to many thumping OF's left) and those who you consider an injury risk, somewhich i can agree with, others I don't (chris young I don't). I still have closers to trade. its a 12 team league and their weren't too many bad early round picks, if you want I can post the other best teams If I can still find them. Obviously the draft is based on how stupid the other managers are. How many maybe's do I really have? Not many.

 

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